Michigan 2020: Democrats Aim to Take Back the State; Flint Water Crisis Still at Issue

The newest Emerson poll in Michigan finds former Vice President Joe Biden still leading the Democratic primary in the state with 34%, followed by Senator Bernie Sanders at 28%. Compared to Emerson’s March poll of Michigan voters, Biden’s support has shrunk from 40%, and Sanders has gained 5 points from 23%. Senator Elizabeth Warren, who was at 11% in the state in March, is now in third at 19%. Mayor Pete Buttigieg is at 8%, Senator Kamala Harris, who was at 12% in the state in March, is now at 3%. (n=454, +/-4.6%)

With voters in the 18-29 age range, Sanders holds a very strong lead with 73% of the vote, and competes with Warren for the 30-49 year olds, with both Senators tied at 28%. Among those over 50, Sanders struggles to take 10%. Voters over 50 are heavily breaking for Biden, who gets 53%

Spencer Kimball, Director of Emerson Polling, noted that “in 2016, Sanders was able to shock the political establishment by winning Michigan, and it looks like his base of youthful support positions him do it again on March 10th.”

When asked if Secretary Hillary Clinton should run for president again in 2020, 70% of Michigan Democrats said she should not run, 18% said she should, and 12% were unsure.

The majority (50%) of Michigan voters disapprove of the President, compared to 43% who approve. 47% support impeaching Trump, and 43% are in opposition. In the Republican primary, President Trump has a strong lead over other candidates, with 92% of the vote.

Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer has a 38% disapproval rating, with 31% approval, 27% with no opinion, and 4% who have never heard of the governor. She struggles in the Flint region of the state, where her approval is underwater at 38% disapproval and 33% approval, while the Detroit area is still supportive with 38% approval and 24% disapproval. In a follow-up question about the Flint Water Crisis, 66% of voters said they think state and local officials should be held criminally responsible, while 11% did not and 23% were unsure.

In general election matchups against the President, leading Democratic candidates Biden, Sanders, and Warren all lead Trump by a magnitude that is outside the margin of error.

In the upcoming Senate election, the incumbent Democratic Senator Gary Peters holds a lead above Republican candidate John James, 46% to 40%.

The plurality of voters (27%) say the economy is the most important issue in deciding their vote for president, followed by health care (21%), and social issues (19%).

When voters were asked which health care policy they support – Medicare for All was the most popular option at 36%, followed by a public option at 21%. 18% of voters want to keep things as they are, 14% want something else, and 11% are unsure. Medicare for All is the leading option for Democrats with 58%. Independents are split between a public option (26%), something else (25%), and Medicare for All (21%). A plurality (27%) of Republicans want to keep things as they are, followed by 24% who want a public option, and 22% who want Medicare for All.

Caller ID

The Michigan Emerson College poll was conducted October 31-November 3, 2019 under the Supervision of Assistant Professor Spencer Kimball. The sample consisted of registered voters, n=1,051, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3 percentage points. The data was weighted based on 2016 voter model of ethnicity, age, education, region. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, party breakdown, ethnicity and region carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using both an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only (n=669) and an online panel provided by Amazon Turk (n=382).

Full Results

Transparency Initiative

Nevada 2020: Biden Extends Lead, Warren Jumps to Second

A new Emerson College poll finds former Vice President Joe Biden with a lead in the Democratic primary in Nevada with 30%, followed by Senator Elizabeth Warren at 22% and Senator Bernie Sanders at 19%. No other candidate clears 10%. Compared to Emerson’s last poll of the state in March, Biden has extended his lead, gaining 4% from the 26% he had in the earlier poll. Warren has increased her lead by 12 points since March, while Sanders and Harris fell four points, and Buttigieg stayed the same. n=451, +/-4.6)

53% of the Democrats polled said there is a chance they could change their mind and vote for someone else, as compared to 48% who said they will definitely vote for their chosen candidate. Biden and Sanders supporters are much more committed to their candidate than Warren supporters: 55% of Biden supporters and 50% of Sanders supporters said they will definitely vote for their first choice candidate; only 27% of Warren supporters said the same.

In a change from previous Emerson polls, Warren leads with those under 50, with 27%, followed by Biden with 23% and Sanders with 18%. Among voters 50 and over, Biden leads with 39%, followed by Sanders with 20%, and Warren with 16%.

Spencer Kimball, Director of Emerson Polling, concludes: “It is important for Biden to maintain his support in Nevada since polling shows him with some trouble in Iowa and New Hampshire. As Nevada is the third state in the nomination process, Biden needs a firewall there or in South Carolina if he struggles in the first two contests in order to propel him on to Super Tuesday on March 3.”

The majority of Democrats in Nevada were opposed to Secretary Hillary Clinton running again in 2020: Sixty-seven percent are opposed to her running as compared to 23% who support her presidential bid. 10% were unsure.

In the Republican primary, President Trump has a strong lead over other candidates, with 92% of the vote. President Trump has a 48% disapproval rating overall in the Silver State, with 46% approval. However, only 45% of voters in the state support impeaching President Trump, whereas 48% oppose impeachment.

The plurality of Nevadans (36%) approve of the job Democratic Governor Steve Sisolak is doing as opposed to 31% who disapprove, and 28% have no opinion.

In head-to-head matchups with the top 3 Democratic candidates, Trump ties Sanders at 50% each, but slightly leads Biden and Warren with 51% to 49% each.

When asked what health care policy they support most, Medicare for All was the most popular option for Nevada voters at 28%, followed by keeping things as they are, and a public option, both at 23%. 15% of voters want something else, and 12% say they are unsure. Medicare for All is the leading option for both Democrats (44%) and Independents (27%), while a plurality of Republicans (34%) want to keep things as they are.

A plurality of voters (32%) chose the economy as their most important issue impacting their vote for President, followed by health care (16%), immigration (12%), and social issues (12%). Impeachment and the environment rank next at 8% each.

Fifty-nine percent of Nevada voters think the rest of the country should become more like Nevada, compared to the other 41% who want Nevada to be more like the rest of the country. 66% of Democrats believe the country should be more like Nevada along with 56% of Republican and 55% of Independents.

There will be a ballot initiative in Nevada in 2020 that will require utilities to get 50 percent of their electricity from renewable sources. When asked about this proposal, 50% were in support, 25% in opposition and 25% were unsure. Sixty-two percent of Democrats are in support, compared to 32% of Republicans and 55% of Independents.

Caller ID

The Nevada Emerson College poll was conducted October 31-November 2, 2019 under the Supervision of Assistant Professor Spencer Kimball. The sample consisted of registered voters, n=1,089, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 2.9 percentage points. The data was weighted based on 2016 voter model of gender, party, age, ethnicity, age, and region. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, party breakdown, ethnicity and region carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using both an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only (n=702) and an online panel provided by Amazon Turk (n=195) and Dynata (n=191).

Full Results

Transparency Initiative

Arizona Poll: Toss Ups in Presidential and Senate Races; Biden Holds Small Lead in Democratic Primary with Warren and Sanders Tied for Second.

A new Emerson College Poll finds President Trump’s approval underwater in Arizona, at 50% disapproval and 45% approval. Despite his disapproval, a majority of voters in Arizona (50%) oppose impeaching the President, while slightly less (44%) support impeachment (n=901, +/-3.2%, MM, Oct 25-28, 2019).

In potential general election match-ups, Arizona appears to be competitive once again in 2020 with Trump tied 50%-50% against Warren and Biden, and leading Sanders 51% to 49%, well within the margin of error. 

In the Arizona Senate race, the Democrats are also competitive, with Democratic challenger Mark Kelly at 46%, and incumbent appointed Republican Sen. Martha McSally at 45%. Kelly leads among Independents by a margin of 45% to 41%. 

The economy is the most important issue for one in three voters in Arizona (33%), followed by healthcare (18%), immigration (13%) and social issues (11%). Impeachment came in 5th out of 9 issues (8%), just ahead of the environment (7%).

Regarding healthcare policy, 31% of Arizonans support a public option, 28% want to keep things as they are, 23% support Medicare for All, and 19% are unsure. Among Democrats, 45% support Medicare for All, compared to only 13% of Independents and 14% of Republicans. 42% of Republicans say they want to keep things as they are, compared to only 12% of Democrats and 27% of Independents in favor of the status quo. 34% of Independents prefer the public option, compared to 31% of Democrats and 27% of Republicans. 

Spencer Kimball, Director of Emerson Polling, said: “Interestingly, the healthcare policy at issue is President Obama’s Affordable Care Act and in Arizona, a plurality of Republicans want to keep the current healthcare policy as is, while Democrats overwhelmingly want to change the current policy.”

In the Democratic Primary, former VP Joe Biden leads the Democratic field with 28%, Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders are in a dead heat for second at 21% each. Pete Buttigieg follows at 12%, and no other candidate is above 5% (n=339, +/-5.2%).

Sanders continues to do well with those under 50 with 35% support among that group, his support drops dramatically to just 7% with voters over 50. Biden continues with the reverse trend as he takes 33% of the vote from those over 50 and 21% from those under 50. Warren draws equally from each age group receiving 23% support from those under 50 and 20% support from those over 50. Andrew Yang is a favorite of the 18-29 year old crowd at 19%. Pete Buttigieg’s support is disproportionately older as he gets 21% support from those over 50 and just 3% support from under 50.

Among those who supported Hillary Clinton in the 2016 primary, Biden leads with 37%, followed by Warren with 27%, Buttigieg with 13% and Sanders with 11%. And among those who supported Sanders in 2016, 35% still support him, 21% support Biden, 18% support Warren and 9% support Buttigieg. 

Looking into racial breakdowns, Warren leads among white voters with 29%, followed by Biden with 22%, Sanders with 18% and Buttigieg with 16%. Among non-white voters, Biden leads with 38%, followed by Sanders with 26%, Warren with 9% and Yang with 8%.

A majority (56%) of Arizona Democratic primary voters think a moderate Democrat has the best chance of winning in the general election, as contrasted to 26% who think a progressive Democrat, 12% a conservative Democrat, and 7% who said a Democratic Socialist would stand the best chance of beating Trump.

GOP Governor Doug Ducey has a 42% approval and 32% disapproval. His net approval is 45 points better among Democrats and 15 points better among Independents than Trump’s approval rating. 

 

Caller ID

The Arizona Emerson College poll was conducted October 25-28, 2019 under the Supervision of Emerson Polling Director and Assistant Professor Spencer Kimball. The sample consisted of registered voters, n=901, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3.2 percentage points. The data was weighted by gender, age, ethnicity, region and mode based on 2016 turnout modeling. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, party breakdown, ethnicity and region carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using both an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only (n=572) and an online panel provided by Amazon Turk (n=329).

Full Results

Transparency Initiative

Iowa 2020: Dead heat with Biden and Warren, Mayor Pete continues to build and Sanders slides

In the first caucus state of the 2020 presidential election, the Democrat Primary field has shifted since the last Emerson poll in March. Former V.P. Joe Biden is now tied with Sen. Elizabeth Warren for the lead 23% each, followed by Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 16%, and Sen. Bernie Sanders dropping to fourth at 13%. No other candidate reaches above 5%. (n=317, +/-5.5%, MM, Oct 13-16, 2019)

According to Spencer Kimball, Director of Emerson Polling, “The good news for Biden is he did not lose much ground since March’s poll that had him at 25% of the vote. It appears that Warren has been the beneficiary of Sanders’s drop from 24% to 13%; Mayor Pete appears to have solidified his base in Iowa, going from 0% in February, to 11% in March, and now 16% in the Hawkeye state.”

Warren has also overtaken Sanders among voters under the age of 50. 21% of those under 50 support Warren followed by Sanders at 18%. Biden continues to lead with those over 50 – receiving  33% support from this cohort, followed by Warren at 24%.

Warren also now leads Sanders among those who supported the Vermont Senator in the 2016 caucus; Warren has 26% among this group, followed by Sanders at 19%, and Buttigieg at 16%. Among those who supported Hillary Clinton in the 2016 caucus, Biden captures 42%, followed by Warren at 22% and Buttigieg at 13%. 

Income level is a driving factor in voter preference among the top candidates. Among those making less than $50,000 a year, Biden, Sanders and Warren are all at 20%. Among those making more than $50,000 a year, Sanders is at 8%, Warren is at 24% and Biden is at 25%. 

President Trump holds a 47% disapproval and a 44% approval rating in Iowa while the Republican Governor Kim Reynolds is at 39% approval and 35% disapproval. Broken down, the President has a 52% disapproval among women, with a 39% approval, as compared to a 42% disapproval among men, with a 51% approval. A plurality of voters – 48 % – oppose impeachment with 42% supporting impeachment (n=829, +/- 3.3%). 

In the GOP primary, Trump leads the field of four candidates with 93% of the vote. (n=286, +/- 5.7%)

In hypothetical head to head matchups, Trump has a slight advantage over Warren and Biden:  51% to 49%, while Sanders carries a 2 point advantage over Trump with 51% to 49%; all three match-ups are within the polls margin of error. (n=888, +/-3.2%)

The most important issue for voters in Iowa in deciding for whom to vote for president is the economy at 33%, followed by healthcare at 19% and social issues at 10%. Impeachment ranked 7 out of 9 at 6%, ahead of education at 5% and foreign policy at 3%. Among Democrats, the most important issue is health care at 25%, followed by the economy at 17% and the environment at 14%. The majority of Republicans (55%) identify  the economy as the most important issue, followed by immigration at 14%. Independents are split between the economy (27%) and healthcare (24%). 

“The Democrats have some work to do in Iowa convincing voters that impeachment is a top priority of Congress;  67% of Democrats in Iowa support impeaching the president, but only 10% identify it as the most important issue in deciding their vote for president,” added Kimball.

One in four voters (25%) said they have seen a presidential candidate in person, and, as expected, Democratic primary voters were more likely to have seen a candidate at 34%. 

It is important for Iowans to be the first state in the Presidential nomination process to vote, 69% said it was important, while 31% said it was not important. There was no significant difference based on party affiliation and attitude toward the historic first in the nation caucus.

The Democratic Primary for US Senate is wide open with no clear frontrunner  – 74% of Democratic primary voters are still undecided. Theresa Greenfield is at 11%, Michael Franken and Eddie Mauro are both tied at 6% while Kimberly Graham is at 4%. 

In a potential head to head matchup against Sen. Joni Ernst, Greenfield trails 47% to 40% with 14% undecided.

 

Caller ID

The Iowa Emerson College poll was conducted October 13-16, 2019 under the Supervision of Emerson Polling Director and Assistant Professor Spencer Kimball. The sample consisted of registered voters, n=888, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3.2 percentage points. The data was weighted by gender, age, education, region and mode based on 2016 turnout modeling. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, party breakdown, ethnicity and region carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using both an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only (n=571) and an online panel provided by Amazon Turk and Dynata (n=317).

Full Results

Transparency Initiative

Louisiana Governor Within Margin of Victory, Impeachment more Popular in Louisiana than Expected

A final Emerson College pre-election primary poll in the Louisiana Governor race finds Democratic Governor John Bel Edwards leading with 48% of the vote. Republican Businessman Eddie Rispone and Republican Congressman Ralph Abraham follow in a statistical tie, with 25% and 19% respectively. Independent Gary Landrieu is at 4%, Republican Patrick Landry is at 3% and Democrat Oscar Dantzler at 1%. (Oct 4-7, MM, n=467, +/-4.5%) 

This jungle primary will be held on Saturday, October 12, 2019. If no candidate reaches 50% on Saturday, a general two-candidate election will be held on November 16.  

Spencer Kimball, Director of the Emerson Poll points out:  “the poll shows incumbent Governor Edwards with a chance to win the race outright. However, if he does fall short of 50%, there is a competitive race to watch between Rispone and Abraham to determine who will challenge Edwards on November 16th.”

Kimball went on to say that “this race is close enough that one of the third tier candidates winning just a few percentage points could pull enough of the vote to keep Edwards from clearing the 50% threshold, on the flip side a melt of support could put Edwards over the top.”

Respondents were first asked their vote preference with an option of undecided, of which 5% of voters said they were still undecided. These voters were then asked a follow up question asking which candidates they leaned toward at this time, Edwards took 43% of the undecided vote, which combined with his base vote moves him from 46% to 48%. Both Rispone and Abraham’s vote share increase by one percent, when the undecided voters are added to their total. 

Edwards approval rating as Governor also falls at 48% approval, with 38% disapproval and 14% undecided.

Edwards’s base support is in the Eastern part of the state from New Orleans to Baton Rouge. Kimball suggests focusing on “ the 2nd, 5th and 6th congressional districts to see Edwards returns; If he exceeds expectations in those parts of the state, he has a real chance of winning 50% of the vote and winning the election outright.”

President Trump, who won the state by 20 points in 2016, has a 50% approval and 42% disapproval with 8% undecided. On the issue of impeaching the President, a plurality, 48%, oppose impeachment, and 43% are in support of impeachment. Kimball said, “this data suggests that the President has lost some ground in Louisiana. The issue of impeachment was more popular than what would be expected.”

 

Caller ID

The Louisiana Emerson College poll was conducted October 4-7, 2019 under the Supervision of Emerson Polling Director Assistant Professor Spencer Kimball. The sample consisted of likely voters, n=467, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 4.5 percentage points. The data was weighted by gender, party affiliation, age, and ethnicity based on 2016 turnout modeling. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, party breakdown, ethnicity and region carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only (n=248), an online panel provided by Amazon Turk (n=171) and cell phone (n=48) only responses via opt-in text message.

Full Results

Transparency Initiative

Statistical Dead-heat with Biden, Sanders and Warren; Voters Support Impeachment

A new poll of Ohio voters finds a very competitive Democratic primary between former Vice President Joe Biden at 29%, Sen. Bernie Sanders at 27% and Sen. Elizabeth Warren at 21%. No other candidate in the race clears 7%. Data collected Sept 29-Oct 2, n=353 +/-5.2%.

On the issue of impeachment, 47% of voters support impeachment with 43% opposing and 10% unsure. Democrats support impeachment 79% to 14%, Republicans oppose it 75% to 12% and Independents are almost split evenly with 45% opposing and 44% supporting. There is a divide among the supporters of the top three Democratic candidates on the issue of impeachment as 92% of Sanders supporters and 91% of Warren supporters support impeaching the President, while 74% of Biden supporters are supportive of impeachment. 

Sanders continues to hold a strong lead with voters under 30 years old. In Ohio he captures 52% of this vote, but his numbers drop significantly with older voters. Sanders receives just 4% of the vote among those over 65. Biden has the reverse trend – winning 49% of voters over 65,  but captures only 3% among 18-29 year olds. Warren competes as the alternative choice with all age groups, with no significant variance in her totals across each group.

Sanders is holding onto a majority of his 2016 supporters in Ohio, as 57% still support him. 16% of 2016 Sanders supporters now favor Warren, 10% now support Biden and 8% now support Harris. Biden, on the other hand, holds a strong lead among those who supported Hillary Clinton in 2016. He receives 47% support from Clinton primary voters, followed by Warren with 29%, and Buttigieg, Sanders and Harris with 5%. 

Spencer Kimball, Director of Emerson Polling noted: “There are encouraging signs for Sen. Kamala Harris who is at 7% in this poll, as she gets 26% of the African-American vote, almost equal to Biden and Sanders who both get 27% of the African-American vote.”  Kimball continues, “This finding is in contrast to other states like South Carolina, where Biden has a lock on the African American vote; such is not the case in Ohio.”

President Trump’s approval rating is at 43% with a 51% disapproval in the state, similar to his national Real Clear Politics average. Trump struggles with female voters with 54% disapproving, while among men – 48% disapprove and 46% approve of the President.

Trump’s approval within the Republican party, however, remains very strong as he receives 87% of the vote in a potential Republican primary against his 3 opponents. (n=325, +/-5.4%)

Governor Mike DeWine is also suffering low approval in the Buckeye State, with a 30% approval and 34% disapproval rating. 36% of voters were undecided.

Nearly 1 in 3 voters (33%) identify the economy as the most important issue for voters in the upcoming presidential election. Health care (19%), social issues (14%) and the environment (9%) rounded out the top 5 issues. Among Democratic primary voters, health care is the most important issue (27%), followed by social issues (21%) and the economy (15%). 

Impeachment is ranked 6th out of 9 issues listed with 7% saying it was most important in deciding who they will vote for President.

Biden and Sanders lead Trump 53% to 47% in potential head to head matchups, while Warren leads 52% to 48%. When Vice President Mike Pence replaces Trump in the head to head matchups, he trails Warren and Sanders 51% to 49%, and Biden by 8 points, 54% to 46%. 

Spencer Kimball, Director of Emerson Polling said “at this point, it does not appear that the impeachment issue would significantly impact a Trump candidacy as his numbers are comparable with Pence in the head to head matchups.”

Trump struggles with voters earning under $50,000, getting about 41% of this vote against his Democratic rivals. Trump is tied or leads with income groups making over $50,000.

When voters were asked if they sympathize more with the United Auto Workers or General Motors in terms of the ongoing strike on issues of wages, healthcare and the use of temporary workers, A majority, 56% said they sympathize more with the UAW, while 23% said they sympathize more with General Motors and 21% were unsure. Seventy-six percent (76%) of Democrats and 58% of Independents are more sympathetic towards the Union, while Republicans are more sympathetic towards General Motors, with 41% supporting GM to 33% supporting the UAW.

 

Caller ID

The Ohio Emerson College poll was conducted September 29-Oct 2, 2019 under the Supervision of Emerson Polling Director Assistant Professor Spencer Kimball. The sample consisted of registered voters, n=837, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3.3 percentage points. The data was weighted by gender, age, education, ethnicity and mode based on 2016 turnout modeling. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, party breakdown, ethnicity and region carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using both an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only (n=552) and an online panel provided by Amazon Turk (n=285).

Full Results

Transparency Initiative

Biden, Sanders, Warren in Statistical Tie in Democratic Primary; Harris Struggles in Home State

The California Democratic Primary is shaping up into a three way race; former VP Biden is tied with Sen. Bernie Sanders at 26% and Sen. Elizabeth Warren is close behind at 20%. A significant drop is seen between this tier and the next group of candidates; entrepreneur Andrew Yang is in fourth at 7%, followed by Sen. Kamala Harris at 6%, former Rep. Beto O’Rourke at 5% and Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 4%. Every other candidate is at 2% or less (MM, RV, n=424, +/- 4.7%, 9/13-16).

The California Democratic Primary will be held on Super Tuesday and Emerson Polling Director Spencer Kimball’s notes that at this point “Senator Kamala Harris is in trouble in her home state. If she is unable to gain momentum in Iowa or New Hampshire, come Super Tuesday she might have a similar fate to Sen. Marco Rubio in 2016, when he was unable to win his home state of Florida and dropped out of the race.”

Driving support for Sanders is younger voters under the age of 50. He leads those voters with 34% of their support, followed by Warren at 18%, Biden at 16% and Yang at 11%. Sanders also has strong support from the Hispanic population of California, leading that group with 36%, followed by Biden with 23%, Warren with 19% and Buttigieg with 7%.

Among voters age 50 or over, Biden leads with 40% support, followed by Warren with 23%, Sanders with 13% and O’Rourke with 8%. 

Among white voters, Warren leads with 29%, followed by Sanders with 20%, Biden with 18% and O’Rourke with 9%. Biden has an enormous lead among African-Americans, as he garners 59% support. No other candidate is within 40 points of Biden among that group. 

Warren’s support is also disproportionately from voters who have at least some college education, as she only receives 1% support from those who have a high school degree or less. 

Sanders and Biden supporters are both more likely to stick with their current choices as 67% and 59% of their respective supporters are planning to definitely vote for their first choice candidate. Only 31% of Warren voters said they will definitely stick with her.

President Trump’s approval in California is at 35% and his disapproval in the state is 59%, well below his national numbers. Additionally, California Governor Gavin Newsom has just a 32% approval rating and a disapproval rating of 42% in the state.

In a potential Republican Primary, Trump wins with 86% of the vote followed by former Rep. Mark Sanford (SC) at 6%, former Rep. Joe Walsh (IL) at 4% and former Governor Bill Weld (MA) also at 4%.

In potential head to head matchups against his top Democratic challengers, Trump trails by significant amounts against all of them. Biden appears to be his strongest opponent, leading the President 64% to 36%. Sanders leads the President 63% to 38% while Harris and Warren each lead by 22 points, 61% to 39%.

The most important issue for voters relative to who they will vote for president is the economy at 26%, followed by health care at 19%, social issues at 13% and the environment at 12%. Among Republicans primary-goers, 54% say the economy is the most important issue in deciding their vote for president, followed by immigration at 18%. Among Democratic primary-goers, health care is the most important issue deciding their vote for president at 25%, followed by the environment at 19% and social issues at 18%. 

Voters are split on California’s status as a sanctuary state, 40% support, 37% oppose, and 23% are undecided. Kimball notes, “if there were to be an issue that creates opportunity for Republicans in the state, the division on sanctuary state status appears to be one of them.” Independents oppose California as a sanctuary state 41% to 33%, which is more in line with Republican voters who oppose 74% to 13% than Democratic voters who support 59% to 16%.

65% of CA voters would prefer Nancy Pelosi over Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez to be Speaker of the House. Among registered Democrats, Pelosi’s support drops to 59% while among Republicans her support grows to 77%. 66% of Independents prefer Pelosi over Ocasio-Cortez. 

A majority of voters, 57%, support the removal of prior marijuana convictions from criminal records while 22% oppose and 21% are undecided. 67% of Democrats support this measure and 57% of Independents support it, while only 37% of Republicans support it. 

A majority of voters, 50%, support AB 5 which gives gig workers for companies like Uber and Lyft to be given full employee status, meaning they would be entitled to holiday and sick pay.  24% of voters oppose the bill and 27% are undecided. There is also a partisan divide on this issue, as 60% of Democrats are in support opposed to just 33% of Republicans and 47% of Independents. 

A plurality of voters, 44%, support SB206, also known as the Fair to Play Act, which would allow college athletes to profit off of their own name, image or likeness. 23% oppose the legislation and 33% were unsure. 51% of Democrats are in support, compared to 30% of Republicans and 44% of Independents. 

 

Caller ID

The California Emerson College poll was conducted September 13-16, 2019 under the Supervision of Emerson Polling Director Assistant Professor Spencer Kimball. The sample consisted of registered voters, n=830, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3.3 percentage points. The data was weighted by gender, age, education, party, ethnicity and mode based on 2016 turnout modeling. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, party breakdown, ethnicity and region carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using both an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only (n=498) and an online panel provided by Amazon Turk (n=332).

Full Results

California TI

Sanders Slips in New Hampshire; Biden, Warren Take Lead

In the “First in the Nation” New Hampshire Primary, the latest Emerson Poll finds the former VP Joe Biden and Sen. Elizabeth Warren in a statistical dead-heat with 24% and 21% of the vote, respectively. Sen. Bernie Sanders, who was leading in the February poll with 27% of the vote is now in third at 13%. Mayor Pete Buttigieg is in fourth at 11% and Sen. Kamala Harris is in fifth with 8%. Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard, who did not qualify for the second Democratic debate, is at 6% in the Granite state, Sen. Cory Booker is at 4%, Andrew Yang is at 3% along with former Congressman John Delaney, and 3% of voters are still undecided (Sept 6-9, 2019, n=483, +/-4.4%).

Prof. Spencer Kimball, Director of Emerson Polling, found differing outlooks for Sanders and Warren from this poll: “for Warren, only time will tell whether she is peaking this September or solidifying her base in the state. For Sanders, the question is whether his base of 18-29 year olds is splintering away from him, or if this poll is an outlier.”

It appears that New Hampshire voters are less decided on who they will vote for than the national audience, with 62% of voters saying there’s a chance they could change their mind regarding their current primary choice. In the last Emerson national poll, only 50% of voters said they could change their mind.

Trump’s disapproval among New Hampshire voters is at 53% with 40% approval. This is slightly up from the last Emerson Poll in February which had Trump at 52% disapproval and 43% approval in the state.

Trump continues to be popular within the Republican party, defeating his two potential rivals, former Gov. Bill Weld (MA) and former Rep. Joe Walsh (IL) with 80% support followed by Weld at 13% and Walsh at 7% (n=379, +/-5%)

In hypothetical head-to-head matchups, Trump trails all the Democratic candidates except Warren, where he is ahead at 51% to 49%. Outside of Biden’s 10 point lead, Andrew Yang performed second best with 54% of the vote. Spencer Kimball, director of Emerson Polling said “it is interesting to see Yang outperform his Democratic rivals against Trump. In this case, his lower name recognition may allow voters to idealize his candidacy.”

The most important issue for voters in deciding whom they will support for president is the economy at 29%, followed by healthcare at 18%, social issues at 15% and immigration at 11%, the environment at 9%, gun policy at 7% and education at 5%. Impeachment was the least important issue of the eight asked with 3%.

However, there are stark differences in what issues Republican and Democratic voters think are the most important. For Republicans, the economy is the most important issue to voters at 41%, followed by immigration at 17%. Social issues and healthcare are tied in third at 11% each. Democrats are more split on the issues, with a plurality citing social issues at 24%, followed by healthcare at 22%, the environment at 16% and the economy at 9%. Independent voters said the economy was most important to their vote at 30% and healthcare was the second most important at 20%. Immigration and social issues are tied for third most important at 11% each.

After the 2020 census, New Hampshire will be redrawing the congressional and state office district maps. Voters are currently split on who should draw these maps with a plurality, 47%, unsure. 30% think an independent commission should create the maps, while 23% do not favor an independent commission. 

Party affiliation appears to be driving this issue, as Democrats and Independents are more in favor of an independent commission at nearly 2:1 ratio (35% to 17%), while Republicans oppose 2:1, 36% to 18%.

In a potential candidacy for US Senate, former Trump Campaign Manager Corey Lewandowski leads the Republican field with 23% of the vote, followed by Don Bolduc at 9% and Bill O’Brien at 7%. Despite Lewandowski’s support from Trump, 56% of GOP primary voters are undecided at this point.

If Lewandowski gets the Republican nomination, he starts out about 10 points behind Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, 49% to 39%. This lead puts the incumbent Senator in a strong position from the start, as she is near the 50% threshold incumbents seek. In 2014, Shaheen was re-elected against Scott Brown, 52% to 48%. In the Emerson February poll, Shaheen and New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu were both at 44%, with 12% of the electorate undecided.

In the gubernatorial race, Republican Governor Chris Sununu leads his potential Democratic opponent, Dan Feltes, 53% to 37%.

 

Caller ID

The New Hampshire Emerson College poll was conducted September 6-9, 2019 under the Supervision of Emerson Polling Director Assistant Professor Spencer Kimball. The sample consisted of registered voters, n=1,041, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3 percentage points. The data was weighted by age, education, party, and mode based on 2016 turnout modeling. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, party breakdown, ethnicity and region carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using both an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only (n=692) and an online panel provided by Amazon Turk and Dyanata (n=349).

Full Results

Transparency Initiative

Colorado 2020: Sanders, Biden and Warren lead Democratic Field; Democrats look to gain Senate seat

A new Emerson Poll finds a very competitive primary shaping up for Super Tuesday 2020 in Colorado with Sen. Bernie Sanders at 26%, former VP Joe Biden at 25% and Sen. Elizabeth Warren at 20%. Sen. Kamala Harris was the only other candidate to break double digits at 13%. Colorado Senator Michael Bennet is polling at 1%. The data was collected August 16-19, n=403, +/-4.8%.

Sanders’ base of support is among 18-29 year olds where he takes 42% of the vote, and he also leads with 30-49 year olds with 34% of the vote but takes only about 12% of the vote from those over 50. Conversely, Biden leads with those over 65 with 43% of the vote while his numbers drop with the younger voters bottoming out at 18% of 18-29 year olds. Warren gets a more consistent percent of the vote from each age group. Spencer Kimball, Director of Emerson Polling notes, “the Colorado data is similar to other state and national polls where Sanders holds a base with the youth vote, Biden has his base with older voters and Warren holds equally strong across age groups. If either Sanders or Biden slip, Warren may be the beneficiary”.

Of those who voted for Hillary Clinton in the 2016 Primary, 45% now support Biden, 21% support Warren, 14% support Harris, and just 4% support Sanders. Among those who voted for Sanders in 2016, 53% still support him, 24% support Warren, 9% support Biden, and 3% support Harris.

For the first time in twenty years, Colorado will be holding a primary instead of their traditional caucus which has potential to impact the turnout model of the state. In 2016, Sanders won the state 59% to 40% over Hillary Clinton, but a look at potential new voters shows the top four candidates all popular and vying for new voters’ support. Of new voters who plan to vote in the primary, Harris receives the highest percentage (21%), followed by Sanders (20%), Warren (17%), and Biden (16%). Spencer Kimball, Director of Emerson Polling, says that “Colorado will be interesting to watch in 2020 because of the change in their nominating rules, going from a caucus to a primary, should increase turnout from about 13% to perhaps as high as 50% and we will see which candidate is able to attract those new voters, so far they appear split among the top four candidates.” In 2016 Sanders won 11 of 18 caucuses but lost 30 of 41 primaries.

When Democratic voters were asked if they could change their mind and vote for someone else or if they will definitely vote for their chosen candidate, 64% say that there is a chance they could change their mind and vote for someone else, whereas 36% say they will definitely vote for the candidate they chose. Younger and older voters appear the most set in the choices; 50% of those under 30 and 42% of those over 65 plan to stick with their candidate. Among those aged 50-64, a lesser 26% say they would keep their choice and 33% of 30-49 year olds said the same.

In the state, President Trump’s job approval is 54% disapproval / 39% approval. Trump’s approval with Republicans remains strong at 80%, his support is demonstrated in a potential primary match up against former MA Gov. Bill Weld where he leads 86% to 14% (n=339, +/- 5.3%). However, among Independents, Trump’s disapproval is at 57% and his approval is at 34%, contributing to his poor head to head performance against all of his top Democratic challengers. Currently, he is losing the state by larger margins against 4 of his 5 top Democratic challengers than in 2016 when Clinton won the state 48% to 43%.

In a hypothetical Senate matchup between Sen. Cory Gardner and former Governor John Hickenlooper, Hickenlooper holds a strong lead with 53% to 40% for Gardner. 8% are undecided. The key to Hickenlooper’s lead is his strong performance among Independents, among whom he leads Gardner 55% to 34%.

Caller ID

The Colorado Emerson College poll was conducted August 16-19, 2019 under the Supervision of Emerson College Polling Director and Assistant Professor Spencer Kimball. The sample consisted of registered voters, n=1,000, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3 percentage points. The data was weighted by a 2016 voter model on race, age, gender, party affiliation, education and US congressional district. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, party breakdown, ethnicity and region carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using both an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only (n=656) and an online panel provided by Amazon MTurk and Dynata (n=344).

 

Full Results and Crosstabs

Colorado Transparency Initiative

North Carolina 2020: Biden with Early Lead on Trump and Democratic Primary Field

A new Emerson Poll in North Carolina finds President Trump’s popularity underwater, with 52% disapproval and 41% approval (May 31-June 3, +/-3.1%). Trump received 50% of the vote to Clinton’s 46% in 2016, carrying the Tar Heel State and its 15 electoral votes. While the President remains popular within the Republican Party – Trump leads former Massachusetts Gov. Bill Weld 88% to 12%- the President is tied or trailing against four of the top five Democratic opponents, faring the worst against former Vice-President Joe Biden, who is ahead of Trump 56% to 44%.

+ Read More

1 2