Sen. Dianne Feinstein leads CA Senate race but potential trouble ahead in the General; Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom leads Governor Race with GOP candidates in hunt for second place finish

A new Emerson College Poll finds Sen. Dianne Feinstein at 38% with no other candidate breaking double digits, and 32% of voters undecided. In the Governor’s race, the current Lt. Governor Gavin Newsom leads with 24% of the vote, with four rivals vying for the second spot, 19% of voters undecided. The poll was conducted May 21-24 of 600 registered voters (+/-4.2 credibility interval) who were more likely than not to vote in the June 5 Primary.

A deeper look into the Senate race reveals that none of Support of the candidates reveals distinct regional distinctions. Newsom, the former San Francisco Mayor, garners 42% of the vote in the Bay region, while former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa has 19% of the vote in the LA metro region, but is unable to crack double digits north of Fresno.

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Tied Senate Race in Missouri for McCaskill and Hawley, and Right-to-Work Repeal. Majority of voters want Gov. Greitens out

A new Emerson College Poll in Missouri has the closely watched Senate race between incumbent Democrat Claire McCaskill and likely Republican challenger Josh Hawley in a tie, with each candidate receiving 45% of the vote, and 11% of voters undecided. The state’s major ballot initiative to overturn the recently passed “Right-to-Work” law is also tied at 40%, with 20% undecided. The poll was conducted April 26-29, 2018 and has a credibility interval of +/- 4.2%.

Though Hawley has a competitive general election ahead of him, he is facing little trouble in the GOP primary to take on McCaskill. Hawley leads the Republican primary with 37% of the vote, near 30 percentage points ahead of second-place finisher and 2016 Libertarian Presidential candidate-turned Republican Senate candidate Austin Petersen at 8%. Courtland Sykes, who made headlines earlier this year after making controversial remarks regarding feminism, is at 6%, with 5% opting for “someone else.” Interestingly, 45% of Republican primary voters remain undecided.

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Republicans Bounce Back in Arizona 8th Congressional, Strong Turnout Has Republican Candidate leading 49% to 43%

A new Emerson College Poll has Democratic candidate Republican Debbie Lesko pulling away from her Democrat Opponent Hiral Tipirneni 49% to 43% with 8% undecided. The special election will held on April 24. A poll conducted a week before had the race tied at 46% for Tipirneni and 45% for Lesko. Data was collected April 19-22 with a +/- 5.2 percentage point credibility interval.

This week’s poll used voter turnout projections based on the early vote (http://www.arizona.vote/early-ballot-statistics) to determine the party splits. The data finds Republicans making up about 49% of the vote, as compared with Democrats, who up just under 28% of the vote. In the previous Emerson poll, the turnout projections were based on voter registration numbers (https://bit.ly/2HKwcW7) which has the district at 41% Republican and 25% Democratic.

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Statistical Tie in Arizona 8th Congressional. Democrats Positioned for Surprise Upset in the Desert

A new Emerson College Poll has Democratic candidate Hiral Tipirneni in a statistical dead heat with her Republican opponent Debbie Lesko 46% to 45%, in a special election to be held on April 24. President Trump won the district 58% to 37% in 2016. Data was collected April 12-15 with a +/- 5.2 percentage point credibility interval.

Tipirneni is the most popular candidate in the race, with a 49% favorable and 29% unfavorable opinion. Lesko is slightly underwater with a 43% favorable and 45% unfavorable opinion. Trent Franks, the former congressman who resigned the seat, has a 24% favorable and 49% unfavorable opinion. President Trump’s job approval in the district is 44% approve and 46% disapprove.

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Emerson College Survey: Esports as Bridge Between US and China. Study compares video games culture in both Countries

Two new Emerson College surveys looked at the presence and opinion that people have of esports and video games in both the United States and China.

Key points from the studies are listed below.

● Are you familiar with the term esports?

○ U.S. residents are familiar with the term 74% to 26%

○ Chinese residents are familiar with the term 87% to 13%

● Do you think video gaming also called esports is a profession or a hobby?

○ U.S. residents see esports as a hobby 66% to 34%

○ Chinese residents see esports as a hobby 75% to 25%

● How much money, if any, did you spend on esports merchandise within the past 6 months?

○ 71% of U.S. residents spent nothing for esports merchandise

○ 28% of Chinese residents spent nothing for esports merchandise

● What is the average time you have watched or played a video game in the last week?

○ 77% of U.S. residents watched or played for five hours or less

○ 48% of Chinese residents watched or played for six hours or more

College Esports Expo 2018, US and China survey results, EMERSON COLLEGE

● Do you think most people play video games too much, too little, or just about the right amount of time?

○ 60% of U.S. residents think that people play video games too much

○ 53% of Chinese residents think that people play video games about right

● How concerned are you about the level of violence in many video games today?

○ U.S. residents are 54% concerned compared to 38% that are not concerned

○ Chinese residents are 58% concerned compared to 31% that are not concerned

● Are you more likely to play video games by yourself or with family and friends?

○ U.S. residents prefer playing alone 78% to 22%

○ Chinese residents prefer playing alone 61% to 39%

■ Overall there was a significant difference between the two Countries on this question.

● Which is your preferred gaming platform?

○ U.S. residents favored the console to computer 40% to 33%

○ Chinese residents favored the computer to the console 57% to 5%

■ China had banned game consoles until 2014 College Esports Expo 2018, US and China survey results,

Methodology

● The Emerson College United States and China esports surveys were conducted under the Supervision of Professor Spencer Kimball.

● China Caller ID

○ Data was collected March 27-30, 2018 via an online panel of Chinese residents provided by Survey Monkey

○ The Credibility Interval for n=300 is +/-6.5 percentage points.

○ Data was weighted based on the Chinese census by age, gender, and region.

● United States Caller ID

○ Data was collected March 27- April 1, 2018 via an online panel of United States residents provided by Survey Monkey.

○ The Credibility Interval for n=400 is +/-5.7 percentage points.

○ Data was weighted based on the American Community Survey data for the US by gender, age, ethnicity, and region.

Results

Despite the US and Canada seeing each other’s country benefiting more from NAFTA, both Countries favor the Agreement and think leaving it would hurt their Economies

Two new Emerson College survey’s looked at attitudes of Americans and Canadians in regards to NAFTA, National Leaders and Marijuana Legalization. The results of these studies will be presented at the Bridgewater State’s Undergraduate Research Symposium on Canada, the US and Quebec in the Age of Trump on March 23, 2018. Highlights of the results are listed below.

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Statistical Dead Heat in PA 18th Congressional Special Election. Democrat Conor Lamb leads Republican Rick Saccone 48% to 45%, 10 days out from election

A new Emerson College poll finds Pennsylvania’s 18th District Special Congressional election with Conor Lamb at 48% and Republican Rick Saccone at 45%, 7% of likely voters are undecided. The data was collected between March 1-3 and used an online and landline sample of 474 likely voters with a CI of +/- 4.8 percentage points.

This election has garnered a lot of voting excitement with 56% saying they are very excited to vote, and 7% not excited at all. It’s voter excitement that might put Lamb over the top. When asked about level of excitement among voters about the election, 63% of Lamb voters reported being very excited compared to 53% of Saccone voters. Lamb voters also are paying more attention to the race, with 47% reported paying a lot of attention, compared to 42% of Saccone voters.

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Voters Trusts Trump More Than Media, Oppose DeVos for Education Secretary

The first poll of Emerson College’s Spring 2017 semester shows the nation is split on Donald Trump’s performance as President so far with 48% of registered voters approve of the job that Trump is doing, versus 47% that disapprove. Republicans approve of Trump 89%/5%, while Democrats disapprove of the President by a margin of 81% to 17%. Trump’s failure to pass the 50% threshold for approval can be accredited to his standing among independents, who disapprove of him 52%/41%.

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Trump Approval Drops as Voters are split among Policies and Mental Stability. Race Relations Worsen under Trump

Emerson College ePoll: Trump Approval Drops as Voters are split among Policies and Mental Stability. Race Relations Worsen under Trump
Voters also split on whether to legalize marijuana for medical purposes only or for recreational use.

A new Emerson College ePoll finds President Trumps approval rating among registered voters slipping after one year in office to 39%, with 52% disapproving of his job performance. This is down from a February 2017 Emerson’s poll where the President held a 48%approve/47% disapproval.

However, the drop in approval has not affected his base and their support. When voters were asked if they would change their vote if they could do it over again 12% of 2016 Trump voters said they would change their vote, while 10% of Clinton voters said the same. Within this subset of voters willing to change their vote, it breaks for Trump with 24%, with 20% breaking for Clinton. This difference is well within the subsets margin of error.

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Moore with Significant 9-point Lead in Final Poll

In the final Emerson College poll before the election, GOP candidate Roy Moore now leads the Democratic candidate Doug Jones 53% to 44%, a six point bump from last week’s Emerson poll. The poll suggests Moore has weathered the storm of alleged sexual misconduct; The survey has a sample size of 600 very likely voters, and has a margin of error of +/-3.9 percentage points. Since the Emerson Poll of Nov. 12, a few days after allegations of sexual misconduct, Moore’s lead dropped from 10 points, to 6 points Nov. 26, and to 3 points last week on Dec. 3. A major event that might have contributed to Moore’s improved poll numbers is his endorsement by President Trump this past weekend. The President is more popular than either candidate with a 55%/40% favorable/unfavorable rating; Moore is at 45%/45% and Jones at 43%/45%.

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