January National Poll: Voters split on Trump’s offer of temporary relief for “Dreamers,” oppose amnesty. Warren leads among announced 2020 Democratic Candidates

Of seven announced Democratic Presidential candidates, Sen. Elizabeth Warren leads the field with 43%, Sen. Kamala Harris is at 19%, and Julian Castro is at 12%, with no other candidate reaching double digits.

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Trump’s Disapproval Matches All Time Low; Americans Are Optimistic About the New Year Despite Belt Tightening for the Holidays

The last Emerson poll of 2018 finds President Trump’s job disapproval rating falling below 50% for the first time this year, with approval at 43% and disapproval at 47% on his job performance. These are the strongest job numbers for the President in an Emerson poll since February 2017, when Trump had 48% approval/47% disapproval. This survey data was collected December 6-9, US Residents, MM, n=800, +/-3.6%.

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2018 US National Public Opinion Survey of Global Strategic Partnerships and Education Diplomacy

Full Report

Results

Final Emerson Battleground Polls Finds Democratic Momentum in Florida, Nevada, South Dakota and Arizona; Republicans Poised to Take Missouri Senate Seat

In Florida, US Senator Bill Nelson (D) now is at 50%, with Gov. Rick Scott (R) at 45%. In the Florida gubernatorial race, Andrew Gillum (D)  is at 51% and Ron DeSantis (R) is at 46%.

In Nevada’s senate race, Democratic candidate Jacky Rosen (D) is at 49% while incumbent Senator Dean Heller (R) is at 45%. In the gubernatorial race, Steve Sisolak (D) is leading Adam Laxalt (R) 48% to 47%.

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Tight Governor Races in Georgia, Wisconsin and Iowa. Democrats look to pick up two House seats in Iowa

Three new Emerson polls look at competitive Governor races in Georgia, Wisconsin, and Iowa.

In Georgia, Republican Brian Kemp is at 49% with his Democratic opponent Stacey Abrams at 47%, Libertarian Ted Metz 1% and 2% undecided. If neither candidate reaches the 50% threshold on election day, Georgia will hold a run-off on December 6.

In Wisconsin, Democratic candidate Tony Evers is at 51% with Incumbent Republican Scott Walker at 46% while US Senator Tammy Baldwin (D) is at 53% with her Republican opponent Leah Vukmir at 44%.  Independents in the Governor race are breaking for Evers 51% to 40%.

The Iowa Governor race is within 4 points with incumbent Kim Reynolds (R) at 49% and Fred Hubbell (D) 45%, with 5% undecided. Democrats are looking to pick up two House seats in the 1st and 3rd districts. In District 1, Abby Finkenauer (D) is at 53%, Rod Blum (R-inc) is at 41%, 2% are undecided. In District 3, Cindy Axne (D) is at 46%, David Young (R-inc) is at 45%, and 6% are undecided.

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West Virginia Senate Race Tightens as Texas Senate Race Remains Close; Republicans Look to Hold Three House Seats in WV

Three new Emerson battleground polls find two US Senators in vulnerable positions; in Texas, US Senator Ted Cruz (R-Inc) is at 50%, Beto O’Rourke (D) 47%, 2% undecided.

In West Virginia US Senator Joe Manchin (D-Inc) at 47%, Patrick Morrisey (R) 42%, 8% undecided. Manchin has a slightly more positive image in the state with a 46% favorable/ 43% unfavorable while Morrissey is underwater at 35%/ 52%, however President Trump is popular in WV with a 56% favorable/ 39% unfavorable.

In Tennessee, Marsha Blackburn (R) 52%, Phil Bredesen (D) 44%, 3% undecided.

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Two House Races In Play and Potential Gubernatorial Upset in 3 NE States

Three new Emerson polls find competitive House races in Maine and New Hampshire and a tight race in Connecticut for Governor.  In Maine’s 2nd, Jared Golden (D) 47% is looking to upset incumbent Bruce Poliquin (R-inc) 46%, 4% undecided. If neither candidate reaches 50%, then a rank choice vote will be used to determine the winner. This is the first year Maine is using rank choice voting.

In New Hampshire’s 1st district Chris Pappas (D) 48% is trying to hold the seat for the Democrats against Eddie Edwards (R) 46%, 5% undecided.

The unpopularity of CT. Gov. Dannel Malloy maybe hurting the Democratic nominee, Ned Lamont who is at 46% with his Republican opponent Bob Stefanowski at 39%. Malloy has a 21% favorable/ 62% unfavorable; President Trump has a 36% favorable rating in Connecticut.

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Close Governor races in Ohio, Oregon and Kansas; Democrats look to pick up Congressional Seat in Kansas

A new set of Emerson battleground polls find the female vote continues to break for Democratic candidates in Ohio, Oregon and Kansas, creating a competitive US Senate race in Ohio, tight Governor races in Ohio, Oregon and Kansas- and a potential Democratic House pick up in Kansas.

In Ohio, US Senator Sherrod Brown (D) is at 49% with Jim Renacci (R) at 43%. Females are breaking for Brown 54% to 37% while males are breaking for Renacci 49% to 43%. In the Governor race, Richard Cordray (D) is at 49% and Mike DeWine (R) is at 46%, but females are breaking for Cordray 52% to 41% while males are breaking for DeWine 51% to 46%.

In Oregon, Kate Brown (D) has 47% and Knute Buehler (R) is at 42%. Among women, Brown leads 51% to 35% while males break for Buehler 48% to 42%.

Kansas shows less of a gender divide but it still exists. Kris Kobach (R) is at 44% and Laura Kelly (D) is at 43%. Female voters are slightly breaking for Kelly 45% to 41%, while males are breaking for Kobach 48% to 41%.

Full Results and Methodology available below.

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Democrats Favored to Pick up Governorships in MI and NM; and Hold US Senate seat in NJ

Transparency Initiative

Incumbents Feinstein, Newsom Favored to Win Senate and Gov Races in CA., Over 60% Disapprove of Trump

A new Emerson College Poll of California likely voters has Senator Dianne Feinstein (Inc. D) at 41%, and her challenger, Kevin de Leon (D) at 23%, with 37% of voters still undecided. In the Governor race, Gavin Newsom (D) leads challenger John Cox (R) with 52% to 32%, with 16% still undecided. The Poll was conducted October 17-19, of likely voters, n=671 +/- 4.1%.

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