National 2020: Biden and Sanders Battle in Two-Way Race for Democratic Nomination

The first Emerson College National Poll of 2020 finds two clear front runners competing for the Democratic nomination. Former Vice President Joe Biden leads with 30%, followed closely by Senator Bernie Sanders at 27%. Senator Elizabeth Warren comes in third at 13%, followed by Andrew Yang at 8%, former Mayor Michael Bloomberg at 7%, and former Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 6%. Data collected January 21-23, 2020, n=497 +/- 4.1%.

Since the last Emerson College national poll in December, Biden has lost 2 points, Warren gained 1 point, Buttigieg lost 2 points, and Gabbard lost 3 points. Sanders and Yang each gained 2 points and Bloomberg picked up 3.

Sanders continues to dominate among young people (ages 18-29), with 47% of this group’s support. Andrew Yang also draws most of his support from the same group, with 20% of these voters. Biden has the support of 14% of this group, with Warren at 10%. Sanders remains strong among 30-49 year-olds with 37%, followed by Biden with 24% and Warren with 11%. Biden picks up support among 50-64 year-olds, with 40% of that group’s support. Warren, Sanders, and Buttigieg trail him with 16%, 13%, and 12%, respectively. Biden’s plurality is even stronger among the oldest group of voters, with the support of 47% of those over 65. Warren has 14% of this group’s support, followed by Michael Bloomberg with 12% and Sanders with 10%.

Spencer Kimball, Director of Emerson College Polling points out: “If Bloomberg continues to gain support it could come at Biden’s expense, which could create a pathway for Sanders to the nomination. On the other hand, Yang is pulling votes away from Sanders with younger voters and this is a very interesting age dynamic.”

Among Hispanic/Latino voters, Sanders and Biden have equal amounts of support at 33%. Following in this group is Bloomberg with 12% and Yang with 9%. Sanders holds a strong lead among White voters with 30% support, followed by Biden at 20%, Warren at 17% and Buttigieg at 10%. Conversely, among African-American voters, Biden holds majority support with 52% support followed by Sanders with 17%, Warren with 12% and Yang with 9%.

Looking at ideology, Sanders has pulled away with “Very Liberal” voters to a majority of 55% support, with Warren at 16%, and Yang at 9%. “Somewhat Liberal” voters prefer Biden as he leads with 32% support, followed by Sanders with 26%, and Warren and Yang with 11%. And among “Moderate” or “Conservative” voters, Biden holds a larger lead with 40% support. Sanders receives 15%, Warren 13%, and Bloomberg 11% among those voters.

Among voters who supported Hillary Clinton in 2016, Biden holds a large lead with 49% support, followed by Sanders and Warren with 14% each, and Bloomberg with 8%. Looking at voters who supported Sanders in 2016, 47% still support him, 13% support Yang, and 12% support Biden and Warren.

Voters are beginning to finalize their support as 55% reported they will not change their minds from their chosen candidate, contrasting with 45% who said there is a chance they could change to another candidate prior to their primary or caucus. This is an increase from the 51% of voters in Emerson’s December national poll who indicated they were set with their candidate. Support is the most solid among Sanders voters, as 76% will definitely vote for him. Biden supporters are split, with 50% saying they will definitely vote for him, and 50% saying they are open to another candidate.

When Democratic primary voters were asked who they expected to win the nomination, a majority (53%) predicted Joe Biden to be the party’s final candidate. 24% expect Bernie Sanders to win the nomination, with no other candidate breaking into double digits. Biden and Sanders voters are the most confident in their candidate, with 88% of Biden voters and 57% of Sanders voters expecting their candidate to win the nomination. The next most confident group of supporters are Bloomberg voters, with 49% believing Bloomberg will be the nominee. Among Warren supporters, 49% expect Biden, 16% expect Sanders, and 30% expect Warren. Sanders also is the expected nominee for a majority (53%) of Yang voters.

Seventy-two percent (72%) of Democratic primary voters plan to vote for the Democratic nominee even if their candidate does not receive the nomination. Thirteen-percent (13%) say they will not vote for the Democratic nominee if their chosen candidate does not win, while 15% say it will depend on who the nominee is. Five-percent (5%) Biden supporters say they will not vote for someone else as the Democratic nominee, while 9% say it would depend on who the nominee is. Among Sanders supporters, 16% will not vote for the nominee if Sanders doesn’t win, while 30% say it depends on the nominee. No Warren supporters say they will definitely not vote for the nominee if she does not win the nomination, but 10% say it will depend on who the nominee is. Forty-two percent (42%) of Yang supporters say they will not vote for anyone else as the Democratic nominee, while 9% say it depends on the nominee.

President Trump’s approval has moved up slightly over the last month from 46% to 47% approve, with his disapproval moving from 49% to 48%. Within independent voters, Trump’s approval sits at 44% approve and 49% disapproval. Trump has also gained support within the Republican primary, going up from 90% to 92% against former Governor Bill Weld and former Congressman Joe Walsh.

There is a sharp divide between males and females in their approval of the President’s approval. Among men, Trump has a 57% approval and 38% disapproval rating whereas among women Trump’s approval flips; he has a 38% approval and 57% majority disapproval.

In potential head-to-head matchups for the November election, all top candidates are well within the margin of error, President Trump trails Sanders 51% to 49%, is tied with Warren and Biden at 50% each and leads Buttigieg at 51% to 49%.

 

A look at the impeachment proceedings finds about one-third of voters (33%) are watching almost all or a lot of the impeachment trial, while 36% are watching hardly any or none of the trial. 31% said they are watching some of it. While Democrats and Republicans have similar viewing habits, 50% of Independents are watching hardly any or none of the trial.

A strong majority of voters (58%) want witnesses called as part of the impeachment trial, 29% do not, and 13% are unsure on the issue. Overall, voters are split on the removal of Trump from office with 51% in support of removal and 49% opposed.

The most important issue for voters in deciding for whom they will vote for president is the economy at 37%, followed by healthcare at 16% and social issues at 13%. Impeachment and the environment follow at 8%, followed by immigration at 7%. There was a divide among the Democratic frontrunners supporters on this question as the top three issues for Biden supporters were health care (29%), impeachment (24%), and social issues (14%). While among Sanders supporters, their top three issues were health care (37%), the economy (23%) and the environment (20%).

Kimball notes that “while the Democrats have struggled to make impeachment relevant to voters, they have been very effective in changing the conversation from immigration policy, which Trump used as a major piece of his platform in 2016. Last June, 12% of voters chose immigration as their most important issue, compared to only 7% in this latest poll.”

Amidst the divisive political rhetoric in the United States, It appears there is one issue of consensus and agreement among voters across all parties: #Megxit. Prince Harry and Meghan Markle recently decided to step back from their senior positions as members of the United Kingdom royal family, largely in an effort to escape the British tabloids. The couple has shed some of their titles and relocated to Canada. American voters, regardless of their political affiliations to support this choice. Fifty-three percent said they support Prince Harry and Meghan Markle’s decision, 20% oppose and 28% have no information on this issue. Among Democrats, 68% support the decision and 16% oppose it. Among Republicans, 43% support it and 23% oppose, and among independents, 45% support and 21% oppose.

Caller ID

The National Emerson College Poll was conducted January 21-23, 2020 under the supervision of Assistant Professor Spencer Kimball. The sample consisted of registered voters, n= 1,128, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 2.8 percentage points. The data was weighted based on 2016 voter model of gender, education, age, ethnicity, and region. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, party breakdown, ethnicity, and region carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using both an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only (n= 741) and an online panel provided by Amazon Turk (n= 387).

 

Results

January National TI

New Jersey 2020: Generational Divide Between Biden and Sanders On Display

A new Emerson College Poll looks to the end of the nomination process, the June 2 New Jersey primary. At this point, former Vice President Joe Biden leads the state with 28% of the vote, followed by Senator Bernie Sanders at 25%, Senator Elizabeth Warren at 15%, former Mayor Michael Bloomberg at 9% and former Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Andrew Yang tied for 5th at 6% each. The data was collected January 16-19, 2020, mix mode, n=388, +/-4.9%.

Spencer Kimball, Director of Emerson College Polling notes that “Bloomberg’s 9% is the highest we have seen for the former New York Mayor in any state poll this year. If his late start strategy is going to work, he will need to perform well in delegate-rich states such as New Jersey at the end of the nomination season.”

In New Jersey, Biden continues to be popular with older voters, 40% of those over 50 support him. Biden continues to struggle with younger voters, taking only 9% of the vote of those between 18-29 years old. In contrast, Sanders captures the youth vote with 36% support of those under 50, but the Vermont Senator has only 7% support of those over 65. Warren is the third most popular candidate in all four age groups with a range of 12% to 22% support.

Biden leads overall with female voters at 29%, followed by Sanders at 22% with female voters, and Warren with 19%. Males break for Sanders at 28%, then Biden at 27% and Warren at 11%.

Sanders leads among Hispanic voters with 31%, followed by Warren with 28%, and Biden with 16%. Among African American voters, Biden leads with 47% of the vote, followed by Warren at 17% and Sanders at 14%. This bodes well for Biden as it mirrors his exceptionally strong African American support in South Carolina, one of the first primaries. White voters in New Jersey break toward Sanders at 27%, then Biden at 23%, and 13% prefer Warren.

About half of Democratic primary voters (48%) say they will definitely vote for the candidate they prefer now, while 52% indicate they could change their mind and vote for another candidate by June.

While the Democratic primary race appears to be split, a majority of voters (55%), indicate they expect Biden to be the nominee. Sanders is the next expected choice at 22%, and Warren is at 10%. Of those voting for Biden, 84% expect him to be the nominee, with only 4% of Biden’s voters think Sanders will be the nominee. A majority of those (57%) voting for Sanders expect him to be the nominee, followed by 35% who believe Biden will get the nomination. A plurality of Warren voters, 42%, think Biden will be the nominee.

Kimball points out that “we saw a similar pattern in New Hampshire last week of Biden supporters being more confident in their candidate than Sanders supporters, and as the primaries begin we will see whether the Biden supporters are overconfident or if the Sanders supporters have something to worry about.”

On the Republican side, President Trump dominates his Republican rivals with 93% of the vote (n=197, +/- 6.9%).

Voters were asked about the impact of their representative in Congress voting in favor of the impeachment of President Trump – if it would make them more likely, or less likely to support his or her re-election next year; or, would their congressperson’s vote on impeachment have no effect on who they would support for Congress next year.

On this question, 41% of voters said voting in favor of impeachment would make them more likely to support the congresspersons’ re-election, 34% said it would make them less likely to support reelection, and 25% said it would make no difference in their vote.

However, support for impeachment varied across the state, with strongest support in the Newark region of the eighth, ninth, and tenth congressional district, with 48% of those polled saying they would be more likely to support their congressperson and 19% less likely to support. The first congressional district around Camden supports their representative, Donald Norcorss vote for impeachment 46% to 28%, along with voters in the central regions (District 6 and 12), with 44% more likely to support their congresspersons as contrasted to 35% who are less likely to support due to the affirmative votes for impeachment.

The northern region of the fifth, seventh, and eleventh congressional districts are split with 41% less likely to support, and 40% more likely. The strongest opposition to the vote for impeachment is in the southern part of the state – in the second, third and fourth districts, where 42% are less likely to vote for a Representative who voted to impeach, and 32% are more likely to support.

Caller ID 

The New Jersey Emerson College poll was conducted January 16-19, 2020 under the Supervision of Assistant Professor Spencer Kimball. The sample consisted of registered voters, n=788, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3.9 percentage points. The data was weighted based on 2016 voter model of party affiliation, age, race, education, gender and region. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, party breakdown, ethnicity and region carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using both an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only (n= 485) and an online panel provided by MTurk (n= 303).

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New Hampshire 2020: Sanders Holds Lead; Klobuchar Surges to Double Digits

A new 7 News/Emerson College Poll of New Hampshire Democratic primary voters finds Sen. Bernie Sanders maintaining his lead with 23% of the vote, followed by former Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 18%, former V.P. Joe Biden and Sen. Elizabeth Warren at 14% each and Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar at 10%. Entrepreneur Andrew Yang is at 6%, Rep. Tulsi Gabbard is at 5% and Businessman Tom Steyer is at 4%. All other candidates are below 3%. The data was collected January 13-16, 2020, MM, Democratic primary voters, n=657, +/- 3.8%.

Spencer Kimball, Director of Emerson College Polling, points out that “there was not much movement among the top four candidates in the last month, but Senator Amy Klobuchar jumped 8 points and is a competitor in New Hampshire.”

Sanders continues to lead with younger voters, garnering 28% support among voters under the age of 50. Buttigieg and Warren follow him in that group with support at 15%, Yang at 10%, Klobuchar at 8% and Biden at 7%. Conversely, among voters age 50 and over, Biden leads with 21% support, followed by Buttigieg with 20%, Sanders with 18%, and Warren and Klobuchar with 12%.

Among those who supported Sanders in the 2016 primary, 34% still support him, 19% support Buttigieg, 15% support Warren and 9% support Biden. Among those who supported Hillary Clinton in the 2016 primary, Biden leads with 24% support, followed by Buttigieg and Klobuchar tied at 19%, Warren with 15% and Sanders with 10%.

Looking at ideology, Sanders leads with voters who describe themselves as “very liberal” with 34%, followed by Warren with 29%, Buttigieg with 18%, Yang with 8% and Biden with 5%. Among voters who describe themselves as “somewhat liberal”, Sanders continues to lead with 26%, followed by Buttigieg with 21%, Warren with 15%, Biden with 13% and Klobuchar with 12%. And among voters who describe themselves as “moderate” or “conservative”, Biden leads with 18%, followed by Buttigieg with 16%, Sanders with 15%, Klobuchar with 12%, and Steyer with 8%.

When asked if they would definitely vote for their chosen candidate, or if they could change their mind and pick someone else, 47% of all respondents are loyal to their chosen candidate, while 53% might vote for someone else. Within this question, 57% of Klobuchar supporters are committed, compared to 56% of Sanders supporters, 49% of Buttigieg supporters, 45% of Warren supporters and 44% of Biden supporters.

Regardless of who they intend to vote for in New Hampshire’s primary, voters were asked which candidate they believe is the most likely to receive the nomination at July’s convention. Despite coming in third in this poll, Joe Biden easily leads as the expected nominee at 44%, followed by 20% who expect Sanders as the nominee. 10% believe Buttigieg will get the nomination, and 9% say Warren.

Spencer Kimball, Director of Emerson College Polling, said “While Bernie Sanders remains in the lead in New Hampshire, it appears his supporters are doubting that he will be the actual nominee with only 49% expecting him to win the nomination. On the flip side, Joe Biden supporters are confident, with 87% thinking he will be the nominee.”

When voters were asked if it was more important to choose a candidate who has the best chance of beating Donald Trump, or a candidate who comes closest to their own views, 51% responded that it was more important to choose a candidate with similar views, while 49% responded that it was more important to choose someone who has the best chance of beating Trump. 80% of Biden supporters prefer a candidate who has the best chance to beat Trump, as compared to 68% of Klobuchar supporters, 46% of Buttigieg supporters, 45% of Warren supporters, and 42% of Sanders supporters.

Voters were also asked which candidate they thought had the best plan or approach to several different important issues.

  • On healthcare, Sanders leads the field with 35%. Buttigieg trails significantly, receiving 19%, followed closely by Biden at 17%, while Warren had 12% support.
  • When it comes to the economy, Sanders leads with voters, receiving 23%. Warren follows with 20%, while Buttigieg comes in third at 17%, with Biden closely behind at 16% support.
  • And with which candidate has the best approach to foreign policy, Biden was the most popular choice with 36%, followed by Sanders with 23%, Buttigieg with 16% and Warren with 9%.

Healthcare was labeled as the single most important issue to Democratic primary voters, with 25% of people saying it was the most important issue. The plurality of supporters of Biden (32%), Buttigieg (26%), and Sanders (37%), all said healthcare was the most important issue. The environment was the second most important issue to Democratic primary voters, with 21% saying it was the single most important issue of the election. Among 18-29 year old voters, 37% said the environment was the most important issue.

The environment was the most important issue to supporters of Elizabeth Warren, with 37% of her supporters saying it was their number one issue. Sen. Amy Klobuchar supporters also listed the environment as their top concern, with 25% of her supporters labeling it as their top issue. Interestingly, among supporters of Tom Steyer, who has centered his campaign around climate change, social issues were the most important single issue, at 22% while the environment only had 13%.

Regarding potential war with Iran, 44% of respondents do not think that the killing of General Qasem Soleimani was justified, and 88% of respondents do not believe the U.S. will be going to war with Iran. Among the top candidates’ supporters, 61% of Warren supporters thought the assassination was justified, compared to 57% of Sanders supporters, 48% of Klobuchar supporters, 39% of Biden supporters and 38% of Buttigieg supporters.

In terms of policy, a plurality of Democratic primary voters (32%) think that the Democratic party should stay where it is, followed by 28% who think the party should move slightly left in terms of policy, and 18% who think it should move significantly left. 13% think the party needs to move slightly to the right, and 8% say the party should move significantly to the right.

When asked if they think the rules enacted by the DNC to qualify for the debates were fair or not, 38% of respondents said that they are fair and 32% said that they are unfair.

Democratic voters in New Hampshire are also strongly in support of the Senate removing President Trump from office with 77% saying he should be removed and 23% saying that he should not be removed. In addition, 66% of Democratic primary voters have confidence in the way that Democratic leaders are handling impeachment.

Caller ID

The New Hampshire Emerson College poll was conducted January 13-16, 2020 under the Supervision of Assistant Professor Spencer Kimball. The sample consisted of registered voters, n=657, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3.8 percentage points. The data was weighted based on 2016 voter model of age, gender, and education. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, party breakdown, ethnicity and region carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using both an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only (n=443) and an online panel provided by Dynata and MTurk (n=214).

 

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New Mexico 2020: Democrats Strong in the Land of Enchantment, but Split Between Sanders and Biden for Nomination

As New Mexico celebrates its 108th anniversary of statehood, a new Emerson College Poll finds New Mexico Democratic primary voters split between Senator Bernie Sanders at 28% and former V.P. Joe Biden at 27%. Entrepreneur Andrew Yang is the only other candidate in double figures at 10%. Senator Elizabeth Warren follows at 8%, and former Mayor Pete Buttigieg is at 7%. The data was collected January 3-6, 2020, n=447 +/- 4.6%.

Spencer Kimball, Director of Emerson College Polling explains: “as the country focuses on the early nominating contests, we looked at the end of the nomination schedule to the June 2nd New Mexico Primary to see how things might play out if the race is still contested at that point. It appears if Sanders and Biden are able to emerge as the top two candidates, they are set up for a close showdown in New Mexico – but the race is still fluid as a majority of voters, 52%, say they could change their mind.”

As seen in previous Emerson primary polls, Sanders dominates with younger voters, taking 44% of the vote from those 18-29, and 36% from those 30-49. His numbers drop among those 50-64, taking 22% of that vote, and bottoms out with those over 65 at 7%. In an inverse relationship, Biden takes 17% of the vote from those under 50, and 37% of the vote with those over 50.

Looking at educational attainment, 46% of those without a high school degree support Sanders, while only 13% of with a postgraduate degree support him. Regionally, Biden takes 34% of the vote from the 2nd and 3rd congressional districts, in comparison to the first district, where it looks like Sanders’s popularity is concentrated as he takes 38% of the vote there.

President Trump has a 39% approval and 54% disapproval rating among New Mexico voters, but he continues to remain popular with Republican primary voters with 87% of the vote against two potential GOP rivals.

However, in potential general election head to head match-ups, the land of enchantment does not appear to be enchanted with the President, as he trails all four potential Democratic rivals by significant amounts. Sanders leads Trump by 18 points, while Buttigieg leads Trump by 10, and Warren and Biden each lead the President by 8 points.

 

The most important issue for voters is the economy at 34%, followed by healthcare 17% and social issues at 16%; no other issue garnered more than 8%.

Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham has mixed reviews after her first year in office with a 38% approval and 38% disapproval.

As incumbent Sen. Tom Udall is retiring, a potential US Senate race has Democrat Ben Ray Luján at 54%, with a 19 point lead against Republican Gavin Clarkson at 35%. Twelve percent (12%) of voters are undecided (n=967, +/-3.1%).

Caller ID 

The New Mexico Emerson College poll was conducted January 3-6, 2020 under the Supervision of Assistant Professor Spencer Kimball. The sample consisted of registered voters, n=967, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3.1 percentage points. The data was weighted based on 2016 voter model of party affiliation, age, race, education, ethnicity, and region. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, party breakdown, ethnicity and region carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using both an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only (n= 601) and an online panel provided by Dynata and MTurk (n= 367).

December National Poll: Biden and Sanders Pull Away from the Pack as Warren Falls

In the latest Emerson College/WHDH National Poll of the Democratic primary, former Vice President Joe Biden leads at 32%, followed by Senator Bernie Sanders at 25%. Senator Elizabeth Warren comes in third at 12%, followed by Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 8%, and entrepreneur Andrew Yang at 6% is rounding out the top 5 (n=525, +/- 4.2%).

Since the Emerson November poll, Biden has increased his support by 5 points, Sanders has lost 2 points, and Warren has dropped 8 points.

The base of Sanders support is younger voters; he receives 36% support from voters under 50. Following him among this group is Biden with 22%, Warren with 12%, and Yang with 10%. With voters 50 and over, Biden has a commanding lead with 45%, followed by Warren with 14%, and Sanders and Buttigieg with 10%.

Director of Emerson Polling Spencer Kimball notes that “Warren appears to be losing to Sanders with younger voters, and losing to Biden with older voters, making it difficult for her to secure a base. With less than 50 days until the Iowa caucus, this strategy of waiting for Sanders or Biden to fall is looking shaky.”

Examining racial demographics, Sanders leads among Hispanic/Latino voters with 36%, followed by Biden with 27%, and Yang with 12%. Among African-American voters, Biden holds a large lead receiving 52% support, followed by Sanders with 19%, Warren with 7% and Booker with 6%. Biden holds a small lead among white voters with 24%, followed by Sanders with 22%, Warren with 17%, and Buttigieg with 15%.

Research assistant Brendan Kane notes that “the fact that Pete Buttigieg garners absolutely no support among African-American and Hispanic voters is a major problem for his campaign as he will struggle to compete in the early states beyond Iowa and New Hampshire unless that changes.”

Democratic voters are not completely set on a particular candidate: 49% say there’s a chance they could change their minds; however, Sanders supporters are the most set: 71% saying they will definitely vote for him, similarly 57% of Biden voters definitely will vote for Biden. On the flip side, 29% of Buttigieg and 28% of Warren voters indicated they plan to stick with their candidate.

If Hillary Clinton entered the race, 26% of Democratic voters said they would vote for her instead of their current choice. Clinton pulls her hypothetical vote primarily from Biden (35%) and Warren (26%) voters.

President Trump’s approval rating slightly decreased from 48% in November to 46% now, with his disapproval moving up from 47% to 49%. This increase in Trump’s disapproval ratings is despite the approval of the announcement of the USMCA trade deal between the US, Canada, and Mexico, which 44% of voters approve and only 10% disapprove. Trump also continues to dominate his potential GOP primary opponents with 90% of the vote.

Voters continue to remain divided on the impeachment of Trump at 45% support to 45% oppose, a slight tick up from November when support for impeachment was at 43% and opposition was at 45%.

Looking at the general election, Trump is now trailing three of his major potential rivals and is tied at 50% with Buttigieg. Biden and Sanders lead 52% to 48% and Warren leads 51% to 49%. This is a change from the November national poll, where Trump led against Biden and Buttigieg and was tied with Warren.

Among men, Trump leads in the general election against Biden 56%-44%, Warren 58%-42%, Sanders 54%-46% and Buttigieg 56%-44%. Among women, all Democratic candidates lead Trump: Biden 59%-41%, Warren 59%-41%, Sanders 58%-42% and Buttigieg 55%-45%.

The most important issue for voters in deciding for whom they will vote continues to be the economy at 24%, followed by healthcare (16%) and social issues (15%). Healthcare (23%) is most important for Democrats, followed by the economy (19%), and social issues (17%). Among Republicans, it is the economy (53%), then immigration (10%) and social issues (8%).

Voters are split regarding which healthcare proposal they most support: Medicare for all has a plurality of support at 32%, both the public option and keeping the current system are equally popular at 26% each, with 16% undecided. However, on which policy voters least support, Medicare for All was at 42%, keeping the current system is at 27%, the public option is at 10%, with undecided at 21%.

When greeting people this holiday season, “Merry Christmas” is the preference of a majority of voters at 65% while Happy Holidays is preferred by 27%.

A plurality of voters, 37% think this decade was worse than the previous decade, 32% thought it was better. However, voters are optimistic about the decade ahead, with 38% thinking it will be better than this decade and 25% saying it will be worse.

A majority of voters, 52%, think their smart devices are listening to them in private, 21% thought smart devices were not listening to them in private, and 28% were unsure. Seventy-two percent (72%) of voters who think their smart devices are listening to them do care, 20% say do not care, 8% were undecided.

Caller ID

The National Emerson College poll was conducted December 15-17 2019 under the supervision of Assistant Professor Spencer Kimball. The sample consisted of registered voters, n= 1,222, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 2.7 percentage points. The data was weighted based on 2016 voter model of gender, education, age, mode, party registration, ethnicity, and region. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, party breakdown, ethnicity and region carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using both an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only (n= 809) and an online panel provided by Amazon Turk (n= 413).

 

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Iowa 2020: Warren’s Support Drops while Sanders Rises

In the latest WHDH 7 News/Emerson College Iowa Poll, former Vice President Joe Biden has maintained his support and lead in the Iowa Caucus with 23% of the vote. Senator Bernie Sanders is the runner up with 22%, followed by Pete Buttigieg with 18% of the vote. Senator Elizabeth Warren has lost ground, receiving 12% support. Amy Klobuchar has seen her popularity grow with 10%, followed by Cory Booker with 4%, and Tom Steyer with 3%. Michael Bloomberg, Tulsi Gabbard, and Andrew Yang received 2% each. The rest of the field had no support. (December 7-10, MM, Democratic Caucus, n=325, +/-5.4%)

The most movement in this poll, as compared to the last Emerson Poll in October, is Warren’s downward slide from frontrunner status, and Sanders’ subsequent gain. Warren and Biden had 23% each in October. While Biden held his numbers in this poll, Warren fell 11 points. Sanders may have benefited from Warren’s loss of support, surging to 22% from 13% of the vote in October. Buttigieg maintained steady support over the last two months, gaining slightly from 16% in October to his current 18% of the vote. Amy Klobuchar experienced a huge leap from noncompetitive numbers – just 1% in October – to 10%.

Continuing the trend evident in previous Emerson polls, Sanders leads among those under 50 with 32% support. Following him in that group, is Warren with 16%, Buttigieg with 13%, Biden with 11% and Klobuchar with 8%. Among those 50 and over, Biden leads with 36% support, followed by Buttigieg with 23%, Klobuchar with 13%, Sanders with 11% and Warren with 8%.

Looking within political ideology, of those self-described as “very liberal,” Sanders leads with 49% support followed by Warren with 16%, Biden with 11%, and Klobuchar and Buttigieg with 7%. Of those self-described as “somewhat liberal,” Buttigieg leads with 27% followed by Sanders with 21%, Warren with 15%, Biden with 14% and Klobuchar with 10%. Of those self-described as “moderate” or “conservative”, Biden leads with 37%, followed by Buttigieg with 18%, Klobuchar with 12%, Warren with 9% and Sanders with 8%.

Respondents were asked to identify their second choice candidate.

  • Among Biden supporters, 27% chose Warren as their second choice, 24% chose Sanders, 23% chose Buttigieg and 14% chose Klobuchar.
  • Within Sanders supporters, 42% picked Warren, 20% chose Biden, 12% chose Yang and 9% chose Buttigieg.
  • Of Warren supporters, 51% selected Sanders, 19% chose Buttigieg, and 5% chose Biden. Among Buttigieg supporters, 26% picked Biden, 23% picked Sanders, 22% picked Warren and 12% picked Klobuchar.
  • Within Klobuchar supporters, 27% chose Warren, 22% chose Buttigieg and Yang and 11% chose Biden.
  • Among the supporters of the candidates not in the top five, Buttigieg leads with 29%, followed by Sanders with 18%, Klobuchar with 17%, Warren with 12% and Biden with 7%.

According to Spencer Kimball, Director of Emerson Polling, “the second choice question suggests that Mayor Pete might be in better shape than his 18% because nearly 1 in 3 voters who are initially supporting a less viable candidate breaks towards Pete as their second option.”

A plurality of Democratic primary voters named Sanders as having the best healthcare policy, at 31%. Following him, 19% said Buttigieg has the best policy, 18% said Biden, 13% said Warren, and 9% said Klobuchar. Sanders also held a plurality lead when voters were asked which candidate has the best higher education plan, with 28%, followed by Warren with 20%, Buttigieg with 16%, Biden with 13%, and Klobuchar with 10%.

Mirroring a larger trend in the 2020 Democratic primary, the responses varied significantly by age. More than half of respondents between 18 and 29 years of age said Sanders’ healthcare plan was the best, at 55%. Meanwhile, just 10% of those above 65 years of age had the same opinion of Sanders plan. The same age disparity carried into the higher education plan: 47% of those 18-29 said Sanders’s policy was the best, while just 8% of those 65 and over agreed.

When Iowa voters were asked what healthcare policy they most support, 23% said a public option, 22% opted to keep it as is, 20% said Medicare for All, 17% said something else, and 19% were unsure. Among registered Democrats, 36% support Medicare for All, 31% support a public option, and 15% were unsure. Among Republicans, 33% want to keep it as is, 25% said something else, and 18% said support a public option. Independents were split across health care policies, with 22% wanting to keep it as it is, 19% supporting a public option, 18% supporting Medicare for all, and 18% supporting something else.

Those who have a union member in their household were split on what health care policy they support: 24% respectively said they support a public option and keeping it as it is, 21% were unsure, and 19% support Medicare for All.

Medicare for All was the most popular among Iowans whose main source of health insurance or coverage is Medicare or Medicaid (28%), and those who have a plan through their parents (39%). A public option was the most popular among Iowans who have purchased their own plans (34%). Keeping the system as it is is popular among those who are on Medicare or Medicaid (25%), and those who have a plan through their employer or their spouse’s employer (25%)

With the impeachment investigations reaching a boiling point in D.C., opposition to impeachment in the Hawkeye state sits at 50% while 38% are supportive of it. 12% of Iowans still have yet to make up their minds about the issue. Despite the recent hearings and pressure from the House Democrats, support for impeachment has dropped slightly since the last Emerson Iowa poll in mid-October when 48% opposed impeachment, 42% supported it, and 10% were unsure.

In the 1st district, represented since 2019 by Democrat Abby Finkenauer, impeachment is opposed by a plurality of voters, 45%-43%, with 12% unsure. The 2nd district, represented by Democrat Dave Loebsack since 2007, shows a similar margin but in favor of impeachment. 46% of Loebsack’s voters support it while 42% oppose it and 12% are unsure. In the 3rd district, which Democrat Cindy Axne won in the last midterms, impeachment is more unpopular with 48% opposing it and 43% supporting it, leaving only 9% undecided. In the more conservative 4th and final district, represented by Republican Steve King, impeachment is opposed by 66% of voters.

President Trump leads all potential Democratic opponents in head to head matchups in Iowa. The President leads Buttigieg by a point 46% to 45%. Against Biden, he leads 49% to 45%, and against Sanders and Warren he leads 50% to 43%. This is a shift from the previous Emerson Iowa poll, in which Sanders lead Trump by a point, and Biden and Warren trailed Trump by two points.

Donald Trump’s job approval has improved slightly among Iowans over the course of the year. The Emerson poll back in March showed a 42% approval and 51% disapproval. In October, 44% of Iowans approved of the job Trump was doing as president and 47% disapproved. In the latest Emerson Poll, 45% approve and 46% disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as president. There is a huge disparity in Trump’s approval by gender. Among men, 54% approve of the job he is doing and 36% disapprove. Among women, 36% approve and 55% disapprove.

The most important issues for voters when deciding for whom to vote for president is the economy (32%), which is down just a point from the October poll. The second most important issue for voters is healthcare (19%), the same as the October poll. Social issues is third (14%), four points higher than the October poll. The issue of impeachment (5%) has dropped a point since October.

Spencer Kimball, Director of Emerson Polling said, “one potential explanation for Trump’s improvement in Iowa is the Democrats’ inability to make the impeachment issue resonate more with voters as we saw a drop in both importance and support since October”.

Regarding Governor Kim Reynolds job approval: 39% approve, 36% disapprove. This is almost the same as in October, when Reynolds was at 39% approve and 35% disapprove. Independents are slightly more approving than disapproving of the governor, with a 37% approve, 35% disapprove job rating among those voters.

Caller ID

The Iowa Emerson College poll was conducted December 7-10, 2019. The sample consisted of registered voters, n=1,043, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3 percentage points. The data was weighted based on 2016 voter model of congressional district, gender, age, education, party affiliation. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, party breakdown, ethnicity and region carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using both an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only (n=684) and an online panel provided by Dynata and MTurk (n=359).

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New Hampshire 2020: Sanders jumps to lead, Buttigieg surges while Warren and Biden slip

A new WHDH 7 News/Emerson College poll finds a major shakeup in the New Hampshire primary with Senator Bernie Sanders leading with 26%, followed by Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 22%. Former Vice President Joe Biden and Senator Elizabeth Warren are at 14%, Rep. Tulsi Gabbard is at 6%, and Entrepreneur Andrew Yang is at 5%. All other candidates are below 5%. (Nov. 22-26, MM, n=549, +/- 4.1%).

This is a major shift from Emerson’s last New Hampshire poll in September, where Biden led with 24% (-10), followed by Warren with 21% (-7). Sanders has jumped from third, where he was at 13% (+13), and Buttigieg also doubled his support from 11% (+11).

Spencer Kimball, Director of Emerson Polling, said “the Democratic voters have taken a look at Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren and they appear unsatisfied at this time which brought some voters back to Bernie Sanders while others are now moving to a fresh face in Pete Buttigieg, this demonstrates the fluidity of the race.”

Sanders has retaken a strong lead among those under 50 in New Hampshire, now leading with 38% support among that group. Following him among younger voters is Warren at 16%, Buttigieg at 12% and Biden at 8%. Buttigieg leads with those 50 and over with 32% support, followed by Biden with 19%, Sanders with 15% and Warren with 11%.

Sanders holds a stronger lead among registered Democrats as he garners 31% support among this group, followed by Buttigieg and Biden with 17%, and Warren with 15%. Among independents, Buttigieg leads with 29% support, followed by Sanders with 21%, Warren with 12% and Biden with 10%.

Looking within ideology, Sanders leads within those who are very liberal with 47% support, followed by Warren with 18%, Buttigieg with 12%, and Biden with 7%. Among those self-described as somewhat liberal, Buttigieg leads with 28% support, followed by Sanders with 25%, Warren with 18% and Biden with 12%. Among moderate/conservative voters, Buttigieg leads with 23% support, followed by Biden with 18%, Sanders with 17% and Gabbard with 11%.

Among those who supported Hillary Clinton in the 2016 primary, Biden leads with 26%, followed by Buttigieg with 20%, Warren with 17%, and Sanders with 14%. Of those who supported Sanders in 2016, 40% still support him, 23% support Buttigieg, 14% support Warren, and 6% support Biden.

When asked if there’s a chance they could change their mind before the primary, a majority (55%) of Democratic primary voters indicate they are open to a different candidate, and 45% are set in their current choice. Sanders supporters are the most committed to their candidate, with 65% saying they will definitely vote for the Vermont Senator. Warren supporters follow, with 47% pledging their vote to her. Buttigieg is next with 40%, and Biden trails behind, with only 36% saying they are committed to him.

Former Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick and former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg both registered negligible support in this poll, at 0% and 1% respectively. Coming just a few weeks after their entry, Patrick and Bloomberg’s lack of traction mirrors a seeming reluctance within the Democratic base to consider newer candidates. 71% of Democratic Primary voters said there were too many candidates running, compared to 7% who believed there should be more.

Trump disapproval sits at 53%, unchanged from the last Emerson New Hampshire September poll. The President’s approval has risen from 40% to 42%, and Governor Chris Sununu’s approval sits at 49% statewide. Sununu’s disapproval is at 30%. In the Republican primary, President Trump leads with 84% support in New Hampshire. Former Massachusetts Governor Bill Weld follows with 13% and former Congressman Joe Walsh trails at 3%.

Respondents in the poll were given head to head matchups between President Trump and leading Democratic candidates. Half of those polled were given an undecided option, while the other half of those polled were forced to choose between the two options. In all cases, Trump was within the margin of error against his potential opponents in the general election. Without undecideds, Buttigieg leads Trump by six points, Biden and Sanders lead Trump by four points, and Yang and Warren both trail Trump by two points. With the undecided option included, Sanders leads Trump 49% to 42%, Buttigieg leads Trump 48% to 41%, Warren leads Trump 47% to 43%, and Yang and Biden lead Trump 46% to 42%.

Incumbent Senator Jeanne Shaheen leads potential Republican challenger Corey Lewandowski by a margin of 52% to 40%. Shaheen holds a strong lead among independents in this matchup, leading 54% to 30% among those voters.

A majority of New Hampshire voters (73%) have either been watching or following the impeachment hearings of President Trump, with a higher percent (47%) of voters supporting impeachment than opposing impeachment (44%). 9% of voters are still unsure on the issue.

When asked if their opinion on whether or not President Trump should be impeached has changed since the start of the hearings – 17% report that their opinion has shifted. Of those who have changed their mind, 64% have moved in support of impeachment, compared to 27% who now oppose impeachment.

The most important issue for voters in deciding their vote for president is the economy at 31%, followed by healthcare at 20%, the environment at 12%, and social issues at 11%. Impeachment, which was the most important issue for 3% of New Hampshire voters in September, is the most important for 4% now.

For Democratic primary voters, the top issue is healthcare at 23%, followed by the environment at 20%, social issues at 18%, and the economy at 18%. Impeachment was just 5% of the Democratic voters’ top issue, although it has dominated the news this week.

Republican primary voters’ top issue is the economy at 45%, followed by immigration at 16%, healthcare at 10%, and foreign policy and terrorism at 7%. Independents have the economy as their top issue at 32%, ahead of health care at 24%, the environment at 11%, and social issues at 9%.

Voters were also asked if they think that billionaires should exist, 63% said that they should, 18% said they should not and 18% were unsure. There was a strong party divide on this question, as among Democrats, 41% said yes, 37% said no, and 22% were unsure. Among Republicans, 84% said yes, 5% said no, and 11% were unsure. And among independents, 63% said yes, 15% said no, and 21% were unsure.

There was also a divide on this question among the supporters of the top Democratic candidates. Of Sanders supporters, 26% said yes, 48% said no, and 26% were unsure. Within Warren supporters, 38% said yes, 44% said no, and 18% were unsure. Among Biden supporters, 50% said yes, 24% said no, and 26% were unsure. And among Buttigieg supporters, 64% said yes, 12% said no, 25% were unsure.

Caller ID

The New Hampshire Emerson College poll was conducted November 22-26, 2019 under the Supervision of Assistant Professor Spencer Kimball. The sample consisted of registered voters, n=1,184, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 2.8 percentage points. The data was weighted based on 2016 voter model of gender, party, age, ethnicity, and region. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, party breakdown, ethnicity and region carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using both an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only (n=780) and an online panel provided by Amazon Turk (n=141) and Dynata (n=263).

Full Results

November National Poll: Support for Impeachment Declines; Biden and Sanders Lead Democratic Primary

A new Emerson poll finds President Trump’s approval has increased in the last month with 48% approval and 47% disapproval, a bounce from 43% approval in the last Emerson National poll in October. Support for impeachment has flipped since October from 48% support with 44% opposing to now 45% opposed and 43% in support. The biggest swing is among Independents, who oppose impeachment now 49% to 34%, which is a reversal from October where they supported impeachment 48% to 39%.

The impeachment hearings are being watched or followed by 69% of voters. A plurality (26%) is getting their information from Fox News, 24% are getting their information from 1 of the 3 network stations (ABC, NBC, CBS), 16% are watching CNN, 15% MSNBC and 19% are going somewhere else for their information.

The president’s support in the Republican primary increased this month to 93% against primary challengers Bill Weld and Joe Walsh. Trump’s head to head matchups in the General Election against the top Democratic candidates have also tightened since October, now trailing Sanders by 1 point and leading his other three potential opponents.

The economy is the number one issue for Republicans (50%) and Independents (35%), while for Democrats, healthcare ranked highest at 25%. Overall, the economy continues to be the most important issue for one in three voters (34%) in deciding who they will vote for President. Healthcare is the second most important overall at 18%, followed by immigration and social issues at 10% each. The environment and impeachment were next at 7% apiece, with foreign policy being the least important issue for voters at 3%.

Senator Bernie Sanders is gaining momentum in the race for the Democratic nomination, increasing 2 points from October to at 27%. Former Vice President Joe Biden is also at 27%, holding steady from October. Senator Elizabeth Warren is in third place at 20%, down a point. Mayor Pete Buttigieg is at 7% and Andrew Yang rounds out the top 5 at 4%. All other candidates are below 4%. (MM, n= 468, +/- 4.6%)

Spencer Kimball, Director of Emerson Polling says that “Biden and Sanders continue to hold their bases, which should concern Warren, as she has waited for one of the front runners to slip these past few months – yet, their support seems to be crystalizing.”

Sanders continues to hold a strong lead with younger voters in the primary. Among voters under 50, Sanders received 37% support, followed by Warren with 22%, Biden with 15% and Yang with 7%. Among voters 50 and over, Biden continues to lead with 44% support, followed by Warren with 16%, Sanders with 13% and Buttigieg with 12%.

Voters also were asked how much respect they have for the police. 59% said they have a great deal of respect, 31% said they have some respect, and 10% have hardly any respect. This is in comparison to the Gallup poll which first asked this question in 1965 and found 71% had a great deal of respect, 22% had some, and 4% hardly any. 

Biden supporters are found to have the most respect for police of the top three Democratic candidates, as 65% said a great deal, 26% said some and 10% said hardly any. Among Warren supporters, 36% said a great deal, 44% said some, and 20% said hardly any. And within Sanders supporters, 22% said a great deal, 44% said some and 34% said hardly any.

Sanders holds a lead among Hispanic or Latino voters with 36% support, followed by Biden with 23% and Warren with 22%. Sanders leads by a smaller margin with White voters with 29% support followed by Biden and Warren with 21%, and Buttigieg with 9%. Biden continues to lead with African American voters with 42% support, followed by Warren with 18%, Sanders with 17% and Buttigieg with 7%. 

Looking at ideology, Sanders leads with very liberal voters with 45% support, followed by Warren with 23%, Biden with 16% and Buttigieg and Yang with 4%. Among somewhat liberal voters Warren and Sanders lead with 26%, followed by Biden with 23% and Yang with 8%. Among moderate/conservative voters, Biden leads with 39% support, followed by Sanders with 14% and Warren and Buttigieg with 12%. 

Among those who supported Hillary Clinton in the 2016 primary, Biden leads with 40% support, followed by Warren with 19%, and Sanders and Buttigieg with 12%. Among those who supported Sanders in the 2016 primary, 48% still support him, followed by Warren with 23%, and Biden with 14%. 

When asked if they would definitely vote for their candidate or if they could change their mind, Sanders supporters are the most committed to their preferred candidate as 71% of his supporters said they will definitely vote for him. 60% of Biden supporters, 46% of Warren supporters and 31% of Buttigieg supporters said the same. 

When asked if they would support the Democratic nominee for president regardless if he or she was not their first choice in the primaries the majority of respondents said they would. 68% said they were very likely and 15% said they were somewhat likely. 93% of Buttigieg supporters reported that they were very likely to support the nominee. Followed with 80% for Warren supporters, and 77% of Biden supporters. The least likely to support the nominee of the top candidates were Sanders supporters, with only 61% reporting that they were very likely. 

Two new candidates who entered the Democratic race since October have had little impact; Michael Bloomberg and Deval Patrick each take less than 1 percent of the vote. When asked if Bloomberg should enter the Democratic Primary, only 16% of Democratic primary voters think Bloomberg should. Asked the same question about 2016 nominee and former Secretary Hillary Clinton, 24% support Clinton running again.

Kimball thinks “the only angle and hope candidates like Bloomberg or Patrick have for the nomination – is a brokered convention, and while unlikely, the elimination of Super Delegates in 2020 makes it more possible though it hasn’t happened since 1952 for either party.”

Sixty-one percent (61%) of voters are watching or following the political protests in Hong Kong. A significant majority at 59% think Hong Kong should be independent from China, 7% said they should not be, and 34% were unsure. Asians as an ethnic group were the most in support of independence at 78% as compared with Hispanics, Whites and African Americans. 

Caller ID

The National Emerson College poll was conducted November 17-20, 2019 under the Supervision of Assistant Professor Spencer Kimball. The sample consisted of registered voters, n=1,092, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 2.9 percentage points. The data was weighted based on 2016 voter model of age, mode, party registration, ethnicity, and region. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, party breakdown, ethnicity and region carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using both an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only (n=713) and an online panel provided by Amazon Turk (n=379).

 

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November Transparency Initiative

Michigan 2020: Democrats Aim to Take Back the State; Flint Water Crisis Still at Issue

The newest Emerson poll in Michigan finds former Vice President Joe Biden still leading the Democratic primary in the state with 34%, followed by Senator Bernie Sanders at 28%. Compared to Emerson’s March poll of Michigan voters, Biden’s support has shrunk from 40%, and Sanders has gained 5 points from 23%. Senator Elizabeth Warren, who was at 11% in the state in March, is now in third at 19%. Mayor Pete Buttigieg is at 8%, Senator Kamala Harris, who was at 12% in the state in March, is now at 3%. (n=454, +/-4.6%)

With voters in the 18-29 age range, Sanders holds a very strong lead with 73% of the vote, and competes with Warren for the 30-49 year olds, with both Senators tied at 28%. Among those over 50, Sanders struggles to take 10%. Voters over 50 are heavily breaking for Biden, who gets 53%

Spencer Kimball, Director of Emerson Polling, noted that “in 2016, Sanders was able to shock the political establishment by winning Michigan, and it looks like his base of youthful support positions him do it again on March 10th.”

When asked if Secretary Hillary Clinton should run for president again in 2020, 70% of Michigan Democrats said she should not run, 18% said she should, and 12% were unsure.

The majority (50%) of Michigan voters disapprove of the President, compared to 43% who approve. 47% support impeaching Trump, and 43% are in opposition. In the Republican primary, President Trump has a strong lead over other candidates, with 92% of the vote.

Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer has a 38% disapproval rating, with 31% approval, 27% with no opinion, and 4% who have never heard of the governor. She struggles in the Flint region of the state, where her approval is underwater at 38% disapproval and 33% approval, while the Detroit area is still supportive with 38% approval and 24% disapproval. In a follow-up question about the Flint Water Crisis, 66% of voters said they think state and local officials should be held criminally responsible, while 11% did not and 23% were unsure.

In general election matchups against the President, leading Democratic candidates Biden, Sanders, and Warren all lead Trump by a magnitude that is outside the margin of error.

In the upcoming Senate election, the incumbent Democratic Senator Gary Peters holds a lead above Republican candidate John James, 46% to 40%.

The plurality of voters (27%) say the economy is the most important issue in deciding their vote for president, followed by health care (21%), and social issues (19%).

When voters were asked which health care policy they support – Medicare for All was the most popular option at 36%, followed by a public option at 21%. 18% of voters want to keep things as they are, 14% want something else, and 11% are unsure. Medicare for All is the leading option for Democrats with 58%. Independents are split between a public option (26%), something else (25%), and Medicare for All (21%). A plurality (27%) of Republicans want to keep things as they are, followed by 24% who want a public option, and 22% who want Medicare for All.

Caller ID

The Michigan Emerson College poll was conducted October 31-November 3, 2019 under the Supervision of Assistant Professor Spencer Kimball. The sample consisted of registered voters, n=1,051, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3 percentage points. The data was weighted based on 2016 voter model of ethnicity, age, education, region. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, party breakdown, ethnicity and region carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using both an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only (n=669) and an online panel provided by Amazon Turk (n=382).

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Nevada 2020: Biden Extends Lead, Warren Jumps to Second

A new Emerson College poll finds former Vice President Joe Biden with a lead in the Democratic primary in Nevada with 30%, followed by Senator Elizabeth Warren at 22% and Senator Bernie Sanders at 19%. No other candidate clears 10%. Compared to Emerson’s last poll of the state in March, Biden has extended his lead, gaining 4% from the 26% he had in the earlier poll. Warren has increased her lead by 12 points since March, while Sanders and Harris fell four points, and Buttigieg stayed the same. n=451, +/-4.6)

53% of the Democrats polled said there is a chance they could change their mind and vote for someone else, as compared to 48% who said they will definitely vote for their chosen candidate. Biden and Sanders supporters are much more committed to their candidate than Warren supporters: 55% of Biden supporters and 50% of Sanders supporters said they will definitely vote for their first choice candidate; only 27% of Warren supporters said the same.

In a change from previous Emerson polls, Warren leads with those under 50, with 27%, followed by Biden with 23% and Sanders with 18%. Among voters 50 and over, Biden leads with 39%, followed by Sanders with 20%, and Warren with 16%.

Spencer Kimball, Director of Emerson Polling, concludes: “It is important for Biden to maintain his support in Nevada since polling shows him with some trouble in Iowa and New Hampshire. As Nevada is the third state in the nomination process, Biden needs a firewall there or in South Carolina if he struggles in the first two contests in order to propel him on to Super Tuesday on March 3.”

The majority of Democrats in Nevada were opposed to Secretary Hillary Clinton running again in 2020: Sixty-seven percent are opposed to her running as compared to 23% who support her presidential bid. 10% were unsure.

In the Republican primary, President Trump has a strong lead over other candidates, with 92% of the vote. President Trump has a 48% disapproval rating overall in the Silver State, with 46% approval. However, only 45% of voters in the state support impeaching President Trump, whereas 48% oppose impeachment.

The plurality of Nevadans (36%) approve of the job Democratic Governor Steve Sisolak is doing as opposed to 31% who disapprove, and 28% have no opinion.

In head-to-head matchups with the top 3 Democratic candidates, Trump ties Sanders at 50% each, but slightly leads Biden and Warren with 51% to 49% each.

When asked what health care policy they support most, Medicare for All was the most popular option for Nevada voters at 28%, followed by keeping things as they are, and a public option, both at 23%. 15% of voters want something else, and 12% say they are unsure. Medicare for All is the leading option for both Democrats (44%) and Independents (27%), while a plurality of Republicans (34%) want to keep things as they are.

A plurality of voters (32%) chose the economy as their most important issue impacting their vote for President, followed by health care (16%), immigration (12%), and social issues (12%). Impeachment and the environment rank next at 8% each.

Fifty-nine percent of Nevada voters think the rest of the country should become more like Nevada, compared to the other 41% who want Nevada to be more like the rest of the country. 66% of Democrats believe the country should be more like Nevada along with 56% of Republican and 55% of Independents.

There will be a ballot initiative in Nevada in 2020 that will require utilities to get 50 percent of their electricity from renewable sources. When asked about this proposal, 50% were in support, 25% in opposition and 25% were unsure. Sixty-two percent of Democrats are in support, compared to 32% of Republicans and 55% of Independents.

Caller ID

The Nevada Emerson College poll was conducted October 31-November 2, 2019 under the Supervision of Assistant Professor Spencer Kimball. The sample consisted of registered voters, n=1,089, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 2.9 percentage points. The data was weighted based on 2016 voter model of gender, party, age, ethnicity, age, and region. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, party breakdown, ethnicity and region carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using both an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only (n=702) and an online panel provided by Amazon Turk (n=195) and Dynata (n=191).

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