Category: Polls Page 2 of 7

South Carolina 2020 Poll: Biden leads Primary Field by Wide Margin; President Trump Popular with Base.

One year out from the South Carolina primary, former Vice President Joe Biden and Senator Bernie Sanders are the only two candidates to reach double digits in the Democratic Primary for President. Biden leads with 37% of the vote, followed by Sanders with 21%. Kamala Harris comes in third with 9%, Cory Booker has 6%, while Beto O’Rourke and Elizabeth Warren both receive 5%.  The poll was conducted February 28-March 2, 2019, n=291, +/-5.7%.

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Bernie Takes Early Lead In New Hampshire Democratic Primary; Potential Tight US Senate Race if Gov. Sununu takes on Sen. Shaheen

Democratic Primary

The first New Hampshire Democratic Primary Poll since Sen. Bernie Sanders announced he’s running for president finds Sanders at a slight advantage with 27% of the vote, former Vice President Joe Biden with 25% and Sen. Kamala Harris at 12%. No other candidate clears double digits. The NH poll was conducted February 21-22 of registered voters, the Democratic primary ballot test had a sample of n=405, +/-4.8%.

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Majority of Americans disagree with Trump’s national emergency despite a plurality agreeing with border wall extension

Following the president’s announcement on Friday, 53% of Americans disapprove of the declaration of a national emergency on the southern border. Despite this, the majority of Americans support the wall in some form; a plurality, 48%, support extending the border wall, and 42% of Americans support maintaining the existing wall. Only 11% of Americans support removal of the wall altogether. The national poll of registered voters was conducted February 14-16 with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points.

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Iowa Poll: One year out from Caucus: Biden leads Democratic Field- Third Party Candidacy Helps Trump

A new Emerson College poll finds President Trump’s approval rating underwater at 46% approval with 48% disapproval. However, the President remains competitive against his potential 2020 Democratic rivals, leading against 7 of 8 candidates. The poll was conducted Jan 30-Feb 2 of registered Iowa voters, n=831 and a MOE +/-3.4 percentage points.

Biden is also the only potential candidate to be leading Trump in a head to head matchup, by a margin of 51% to 49%. Trump leads Sanders by 1% (51-50), Warren by 4% (52-48), and Harris and O’Rourke by 6% (53-47), all within the poll’s margin of error. President Trump seems to have locked up support from Iowa Republicans. In a potential matchup with former Ohio Governor John Kasich, Trump leads 90% to 10%.

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January National Poll: Voters split on Trump’s offer of temporary relief for “Dreamers,” oppose amnesty. Warren leads among announced 2020 Democratic Candidates

Amidst the government shutdown, President Trump’s job approval dropped this month to a 52% disapproval and 42% approval, this is down from December’s poll where disapproval was 47% to 43% approve. Regarding the President’s re-election, 57% said it was time to give someone else a chance while 43% said President Trump deserves to be re-elected. The poll was conducted January 20-21, 2019, n=942, +/- 3.2 percentage points.

Voters are split on who to blame for the shutdown with 42% blaming the President, 36% blaming the Democrats in Congress, 6% blaming the Republicans in Congress, and 16% blaming everyone. About 1 in 4 voters (27%) have noticed a difference in their personal lives because of the shutdown.

Voters generally favor increasing enforcement of immigration laws at U.S. borders with 55% in favor and 24% opposed. The wall is not seen as a solution at the border for 41% of voters, while 59% believe it could be a solution. 26% believe it is the best solution while 33% believe it is one of several potential solutions for border security.

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Trump’s Disapproval Matches All Time Low; Americans Are Optimistic About the New Year Despite Belt Tightening for the Holidays

The last Emerson poll of 2018 finds President Trump’s job disapproval rating falling below 50% for the first time this year, with approval at 43% and disapproval at 47% on his job performance. These are the strongest job numbers for the President in an Emerson poll since February 2017, when Trump had 48% approval/47% disapproval. This survey data was collected December 6-9, US Residents, MM, n=800, +/-3.6%.

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2018 US National Public Opinion Survey of Global Strategic Partnerships and Education Diplomacy

Full Report

Results

Final Emerson Battleground Polls Finds Democratic Momentum in Florida, Nevada, South Dakota and Arizona; Republicans Poised to Take Missouri Senate Seat

In Florida, US Senator Bill Nelson (D) now is at 50%, with Gov. Rick Scott (R) at 45%. In the Florida gubernatorial race, Andrew Gillum (D)  is at 51% and Ron DeSantis (R) is at 46%.

In Nevada’s senate race, Democratic candidate Jacky Rosen (D) is at 49% while incumbent Senator Dean Heller (R) is at 45%. In the gubernatorial race, Steve Sisolak (D) is leading Adam Laxalt (R) 48% to 47%.

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Tight Governor Races in Georgia, Wisconsin and Iowa. Democrats look to pick up two House seats in Iowa

Three new Emerson polls look at competitive Governor races in Georgia, Wisconsin, and Iowa.

In Georgia, Republican Brian Kemp is at 49% with his Democratic opponent Stacey Abrams at 47%, Libertarian Ted Metz 1% and 2% undecided. If neither candidate reaches the 50% threshold on election day, Georgia will hold a run-off on December 6.

In Wisconsin, Democratic candidate Tony Evers is at 51% with Incumbent Republican Scott Walker at 46% while US Senator Tammy Baldwin (D) is at 53% with her Republican opponent Leah Vukmir at 44%.  Independents in the Governor race are breaking for Evers 51% to 40%.

The Iowa Governor race is within 4 points with incumbent Kim Reynolds (R) at 49% and Fred Hubbell (D) 45%, with 5% undecided. Democrats are looking to pick up two House seats in the 1st and 3rd districts. In District 1, Abby Finkenauer (D) is at 53%, Rod Blum (R-inc) is at 41%, 2% are undecided. In District 3, Cindy Axne (D) is at 46%, David Young (R-inc) is at 45%, and 6% are undecided.

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West Virginia Senate Race Tightens as Texas Senate Race Remains Close; Republicans Look to Hold Three House Seats in WV

Three new Emerson battleground polls find two US Senators in vulnerable positions; in Texas, US Senator Ted Cruz (R-Inc) is at 50%, Beto O’Rourke (D) 47%, 2% undecided.

In West Virginia US Senator Joe Manchin (D-Inc) at 47%, Patrick Morrisey (R) 42%, 8% undecided. Manchin has a slightly more positive image in the state with a 46% favorable/ 43% unfavorable while Morrissey is underwater at 35%/ 52%, however President Trump is popular in WV with a 56% favorable/ 39% unfavorable.

In Tennessee, Marsha Blackburn (R) 52%, Phil Bredesen (D) 44%, 3% undecided.

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