New Hampshire 2020 Tracking Poll Night 8: Sanders Heads Into Primary With Lead, Buttigieg Within Margin of Error

The final 7 News/ Emerson College tracking poll of the New Hampshire Democratic Primary finds Sen. Bernie Sanders holding his lead in the Democratic Primary with 30%, followed by fmr. Mayor Pete Buttigieg with 23%, Sen. Amy Klobuchar with 14%, Sen. Elizabeth Warren with 11%, and fmr. V.P. Joe Biden with 10%. No other candidate is above 4%. Data was collected February 8-9, 2020, mixed mode, n=500, margin of error of +/- 4.3%.

Since yesterday, Sanders has held his support, Buttigieg has gained three points, Klobuchar has gained one point, and Warren and Biden have lost one point.

Spencer Kimball, Director of Emerson College Polling, explains the state of the race in New Hampshire: “While Sanders has a lead going into the election, Buttigieg has closed the gap and could still pull off a New Hampshire surprise, as he and Sanders are within the margin of error. Klobuchar continues to move up, but she still trails the top two candidates by a significant margin. Warren and Biden could still get as high as third but today’s data had them going in the wrong direction. ”

Respondents were asked if they would definitely vote for their preferred candidate or if there was a chance they could change their mind. Overall 69% said they will definitely vote for their candidate and 31% said that they could still change their minds. Sanders’ supporters are the most committed as 85% said they will definitely vote for him. Of the other top candidates, 68% of Warren supporters, 66% of Klobuchar supporters, 65% of Biden supporters, and 59% of Buttigieg supporters are committed to their respective candidates.

Continuing the trend found throughout this tracking poll, Sanders pulls very strong support from younger voters. Among voters under 50 years old, he leads with 42% support followed by Buttigieg with 24%, and Warren with 11%. Among voters 50 and over, Buttigieg leads at 23%, followed by Klobuchar at 22%, Sanders at 19%, Biden at 15% and Warren at 10%.

Sanders holds a strong lead among “very liberal” voters garnering 54% support among that group. Following Sanders among those very liberal voters is Warren at 21%, and no other candidate is in double digits. Among “somewhat liberal” voters, Sanders also leads with 32% followed by Buttigieg with 29%, Klobuchar with 14% and Warren with 10%. And among “moderate” or “conservative” voters, Buttigieg holds the lead with 28% support. Following him among those voters is Klobuchar with 20%, Biden with 15% and Sanders with 14%.

In the first congressional district, 35% of voters support Sanders, followed by Buttigieg with 20%, Klobuchar with 13% and Biden and Warren 9%. In the second district, 27% of voters support Buttigieg, 25% support Sanders, 15% support Klobuchar, 12% support Warren, and 11% support Biden.

Voters were asked again to pick a candidate, regardless of who they are going to vote for, who they expect to be the Democratic nominee. Sanders led this question with 44%, followed by Buttigieg with 16%, Biden with 14%, Klobuchar at 9%, Bloomberg at 8%, and Warren at 6%. Since yesterday, Sanders, Buttigieg, Warren, and Bloomberg have stayed the same, Klobuchar increased two points and Biden decreased one point.

For the questions of the day, respondents were asked if they think the winner of the Democratic primary will also win the White House, 85% said yes and 15% said no. They were also asked if they think the Democratic party is headed in the right or wrong direction, 76% said the right direction and 24% said the wrong direction. And a majority of respondents (53%) said that they think Nancy Pelosi is more aligned with the values of the Democratic party, 22% said AOC is more aligned, 11% said neither and 14% were unsure.

Those voting in the Republican primary in New Hampshire were also polled; 84% plan to vote for President Trump, compared to 16% who are voting for former Massachusetts governor Bill Weld.

 

Caller ID

The New Hampshire 7 News/ Emerson College poll was conducted February 8-February 9, 2020. The sample for the Democratic Primary consisted of registered Democratic and Independent likely voters, n=500, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 4.3 percentage points. The sample for the Republican primary consisted of registered Republican and Independent likely voters, n=500, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 4.3 percentage points. The data sets were weighted based on gender, age, party, education, region, and based on 2016 turnout model. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, party breakdown, ethnicity and region carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only (n=257), cell phones (n=192) and online panels provided by MTurk (n=51).

 

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New Hampshire 2020 Tracking Poll Night 7: Debate Shifts Momentum for Candidates but Sanders Stays In Strong Position

Day 7 of the 7 News/ Emerson College tracking poll of the New Hampshire Democratic Primary finds Sen. Bernie Sanders holding his lead in the Democratic Primary with 30%, followed by fmr. Mayor Pete Buttigieg with 20%, Sen. Amy Klobuchar with 13%, Sen. Elizabeth Warren with 12%, and fmr. V.P. Joe Biden with 11%. No other candidate is above 4%. Data was collected February 7-8, 2020, mixed mode, n=500, margin of error of +/- 4.3%.

Since yesterday, Sanders has lost one point, Buttigieg has lost four points, Klobuchar has gained four points, Warren has gained one point, and Biden has held his support.

Spencer Kimball, Director of Emerson College Polling, explains the changes: “Both Sanders and Buttigieg received a bounce in our poll numbers since Iowa, but it looks like the debate on Friday may have stymied momentum for the front runners. The candidate who seems to have been able to take advantage of the event is Klobuchar who gained four points.”

Respondents were asked if they would definitely vote for their preferred candidate or if there was a chance they could change their mind. Overall, 66% said they will definitely vote for their candidate and 34% said they could still change their mind. Sanders’ supporters are the most committed as 88% said they will definitely vote for him. Of the other top candidates, 64% of Warren supporters, 62% of Biden supporters, 56% of Klobuchar and 54% of Buttigieg supporters are committed to their respective candidates.

Continuing the trend found in the past Emerson College tracking polls, Sanders pulls very strong support from younger voters. Among voters under 50 years old, he leads with 44% support followed by Buttigieg with 17%, and Warren with 13%. Among voters 50 and over, Buttigieg leads at 23% (an eight point drop from yesterday), followed by Sanders and Klobuchar at 19%, Biden at 16% and Warren at 11%.

Sanders holds a strong lead among “very liberal” voters garnering 53% support among that group. Following Sanders among those very liberal voters is Warren at 24%, and no other candidate is in double digits. Among “somewhat liberal” voters, Sanders also leads with 37% followed by Buttigieg with 22%, Klobuchar with 12% and Warren with 11%. And among “moderate” or “conservative” voters, Buttigieg holds the lead with 26% support. Following him among those voters is Klobuchar with 17%, Biden with 15% and Sanders with 14%.

In the first congressional district, 37% of voters support Sanders, followed by Buttigieg with 14%, Klobuchar with 13% and Biden and Warren with 11%. In the second district, 26% of voters support Buttigieg, 24% support Sanders, 14% support Klobuchar, 12% support Warren, and 11% support Biden.

Voters were asked again to pick a candidate, regardless of who they are going to vote for, who they expect to be the Democratic nominee. Sanders led this question with 45%, followed by Buttigieg and Biden at 16%, Bloomberg at 8% and Klobuchar at 7%. Since yesterday, Biden and Buttigieg decreased on this question by three points, Sanders has gained two points, Bloomberg gained one point and Klobuchar gained two.

For the questions of the day, voters were asked how important they think experience in Washington DC is for a presidential candidate, 74% said it was somewhat or very important, 13% were neutral, and 13% said it was not very important or not important at all. Voters were also asked if they think this will be the last time New Hampshire holds the first primary in the nation. The majority of New Hampshire voters think they will continue to have the first in the nation primary (68%), and 8% said they think it will be the last time, while 24% were unsure.

 

Caller ID

The New Hampshire 7 News/ Emerson College poll was conducted February 7-February 8, 2020. The sample consisted of registered Democratic and Independent likely voters, n=500, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 4.3 percentage points. The data was weighted based on gender, age, party, education, region, and based on 2016 turnout model. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, party breakdown, ethnicity and region carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only (n=331), cell phones (n=147) and online panels provided by MTurk (n=42).

 

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New Hampshire 2020 Tracking Poll Night 6: Sanders Continues to Lead as Buttigieg Inches Closer

Day 6 of the 7 News/ Emerson College tracking poll of the New Hampshire Democratic Primary finds Sen. Bernie Sanders holding his lead in the Democratic Primary with 31%, followed by fmr. Mayor Pete Buttigieg with 24%, Sen. Elizabeth Warren and fmr. V.P. Joe Biden with 11%, and Sen. Amy Klobuchar with 9%. No other candidate is above 5%. Data was collected February 6-7, 2020, mixed mode, n=500, margin of error of +/- 4.3%.

Since yesterday, Sanders has lost one point, Buttigieg has gained one point (an overall 11 point increase since Emerson College’s first New Hampshire Tracking poll five days ago), Warren has lost two points, and Biden and Klobuchar have held their support.

Respondents were asked if they would definitely vote for their preferred candidate or if there was a chance they could change their mind. Overall 63% said they will definitely vote for their candidate and Sanders’ supporters are the most committed as 90% said they will definitely vote for him. Of the other top candidates, 64% of Biden supporters, 63% of Warren supporters, and 47% of Buttigieg supporters are committed to their respective candidates.

Spencer Kimball, Director of Emerson College Polling explains, “many voters are still on the fence on who they will support but that does not include Sanders supporters, which means that the other candidates won’t be able to pull any of his vote which leaves them fighting amongst themselves”.

Continuing the trend found in the past Emerson College tracking polls, Sanders pulls very strong support from younger voters. Among voters under 50 years old, he leads with 44% support followed by Buttigieg with 17%, and Warren with 13%. Among voters 50 and over, Buttigieg leads at 31%, followed by Sanders at 20%, Biden at 17% and Warren at 14%.

Sanders holds a strong lead among “very liberal” voters garnering 51% support among that group. Following Sanders among those very liberal voters is Warren at 24%, and Buttigieg at 12%. Among “somewhat liberal” voters, Sanders also leads with 43% followed by Buttigieg with 22%, Warren with 11% and Biden with 9%. And among “moderate” or “conservative” voters, Buttigieg holds the lead with 29% support. Following him among those voters is Biden with 15%, Sanders with 14% and Klobuchar with 13%.

In the first congressional district, 36% of voters support Sanders, followed by Buttigieg with 21%, Biden with 12%, and Warren with 11%. In the second district, 26% of voters support Sanders and Buttigieg, 12% support Warren, and 11% support Biden.

Voters were asked again to pick a candidate, regardless of who they are going to vote for, who they expect to be the Democratic nominee. Sanders led this question with 42%, followed by Buttigieg and Biden at 19% and Bloomberg at 7%. Since yesterday, Biden has decreased on this question by three points, Sanders has gained one point, Buttigieg held his support and Bloomberg gained three points.

For the questions of the day, voters were asked if they are more or less enthusiastic to vote in this primary compared to previous primaries. A majority (62%) said that they are more enthusiastic, 13% said they are less enthusiastic and 25% said they feel about the same level of enthusiasm.

Additionally, respondents were asked whether having a woman on the presidential ticket would make them more or less likely to support that ticket. Twenty-six percent (26%) said it would make them more likely, 3% said it would make them less likely and 71% said that it would not matter to them. They were asked the same question in regards to having an African-American or Hispanic candidate on the ticket. Fourteen percent (14%) said that would make them more likely, 4% said it would make them less likely, and 82% said that it would not matter.

 

Caller ID

The New Hampshire 7 News/ Emerson College poll was conducted February 6-February 7, 2020. The sample consisted of registered Democratic and Independent likely voters, n=500, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 4.3 percentage points. The data was weighted based on gender, age, education, region, and based on 2016 turnout model. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, party breakdown, ethnicity and region carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only (n=332), cell phones (n=99) and online panels provided by MTurk (n=68).

 

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New Hampshire 2020 Tracking Poll Night 5: Sanders Holds Lead in New Hampshire, Buttigieg Continues to Gain

Day 5 of the 7 News/ Emerson College tracking poll of the New Hampshire Democratic Primary finds Sen. Bernie Sanders maintaining his lead in the Democratic Primary with 32%, followed by fmr. Mayor Pete Buttigieg with 23%, up two points since yesterday’s tracking poll, Sen. Elizabeth Warren with 13%, fmr. V.P. Joe Biden with 11%, and Sen. Amy Klobuchar with 9%.

Since yesterday, Sanders has gained one point, Buttigieg has gained two points (an overall ten-point increase since Emerson College’s first New Hampshire Tracking poll four days ago), Warren has gained one point, Biden has lost another point, and Klobuchar has lost two points, putting her below 10%.

Spencer Kimball, Director of Emerson College Polling explains, “This is beginning to turn into a two-person race in New Hampshire between Bernie Sanders and Pete Buttigieg. All eyes will be on Warren, Biden, and Klobuchar at the debate on Friday night to see if any of them can create a game-changing moment for their campaigns.”

Continuing the trend found in the past Emerson College tracking polls, Sanders pulls very strong support from younger voters. Among voters under 50 years old, he leads with 44% support followed by Buttigieg with 17%, and Warren with 13%. Among voters 50 and over, Buttigieg leads at 31%, followed by Sanders at 20%, Biden at 17% and Warren at 14%.

Voters were asked again to pick a candidate, regardless of who they are going to vote for, who they expect to be the Democratic nominee. Sanders led this question with 41%, followed by Biden at 21%, and Buttigieg at 18%. Since yesterday, Biden has decreased on this question by five points and Buttigieg has decreased by one point.

Sanders holds a strong lead among “very liberal” voters garnering 46% support among that group. Following Sanders among those very liberal voters is Warren at 32%, and Buttigieg at 11%. Among “somewhat liberal” voters, Sanders also leads with 43% followed by Buttigieg with 20%, Warren with 12% and Biden with 11%. And among “moderate” or “conservative” voters, Buttigieg holds the lead with 31% support. Following him among those voters is Sanders with 16%, Biden with 13%, and Klobuchar with 12%.

In the first district, 37% of voters support Sanders, followed by Buttigieg with 24%. In the second district, 26% of voters support Bernie Sanders, 22% support Buttigieg, and 16% support Warren.

For the questions of the day, voters were asked about the motivation of Senator Mitt Romney’s decision to vote to convict President Trump: if it was out of personal conviction or a political calculation. The majority of Democratic Primary Voters (64%) said it was out of personal conviction, 21% thought it was a political calculation, and 15% were unsure. Voters were also asked if the handling of the impeachment matter by the House and Senate Democrats made them more or less likely to vote for Democratic candidates in the year 2020. The plurality of New Hampshire Democrats (48%) said it made them more likely to vote for Democrats, 14% said it made them less likely to vote for Democrats, and 38% said it had no effect.

Caller ID

The New Hampshire 7 News/ Emerson College poll was conducted February 5-February 6, 2020. The sample consisted of registered Democratic and Independent likely voters, n=500, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 4.3 percentage points. The data was weighted based on gender, age, education, region, and based on 2016 turnout model. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, party breakdown, ethnicity and region carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only (n=318), cell phones (n=119) and online panels provided by MTurk (n=62).

Results

 

New Hampshire 2020 Tracking Poll Night 4: Buttigieg Continues to Gain on Sanders

Day 4 of the 7 News/ Emerson College tracking poll of the New Hampshire Democratic Primary finds former Mayor Pete Buttigieg’s support growing even higher as he is now at 21% in the Granite State. That places him in second place behind the frontrunner, Senator Bernie Sanders, who is at 31% support. Former VP Joe Biden and Senator Elizabeth Warren follow with 12% and Senator Amy Klobuchar is the only other candidate to reach double digits at 11%. Data was collected February 3-5, 2020, n=500, margin of error +/- 4.3%.

Since yesterday, Sanders and Biden have lost a point, Warren has gained one, Klobuchar has held her support and Buttigieg has jumped up four points. That makes it a nine-point increase for Buttigieg in the past two days.

Continuing the trend found in the first few days of the 7 News/Emerson College tracking poll, Sanders pulls very strong support from younger voters. Among voters under 50 years old, he leads with 43%, followed by Buttigieg with 15%, and Warren and Klobuchar with 12%. Among voters 50 and over, Buttigieg leads with 27% support, followed by Sanders with 21%, Biden with 19% and Klobuchar and Warren with 11%.

Sanders holds a strong lead among “very liberal” voters garnering 55% support among that group. Following him among those voters is Warren with 21% and Buttigieg with 9%. Among “somewhat liberal” voters, Sanders also leads with 35% support followed by Buttigieg with 19%, Klobuchar with 16% and Warren with 15%. And among “moderate” or “conservative” voters, Buttigieg has taken the lead with 30% support. Following him among those voters is Biden with 19%, Sanders with 16%, and Klobuchar with 13%.

Sanders leads both congressional districts: in the first district, 36% of voters support him, followed by Buttigieg with 22% and Biden with 12%. In the second district, Sanders has a smaller lead with 27% support, followed by Buttigieg with 21%, Warren with 14%, and Biden and Klobuchar with 13%.

For the 7 News/Emerson College Polling questions of the day, voters were asked about two moments from President Trump’s State of the Union yesterday evening. When asked if it was appropriate for Trump to not shake the hand of Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, 72% said it was inappropriate, 13% said it was appropriate, and 13% were undecided. When asked about the appropriateness of Pelosi choosing to rip up a copy of Trump’s speech, voters were more split. 43% said it was inappropriate, 43% said appropriate, and 14% were undecided.

Voters were asked again regardless of who they support, who they think will be the eventual Democratic nominee. Sanders led this question with 41%, followed by Biden at 26%, and Buttigieg at 19%. Since yesterday, Biden has decreased 6 points on this question, and Buttigieg has increased 9 points.

Caller ID

The New Hampshire Emerson College poll was conducted February 3-February 5, 2020. The sample consisted of registered Democratic and Independent voters, n=500, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 4.3 percentage points. The data was weighted based on gender, age, education, region, and based on 2016 turnout model. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, party breakdown, ethnicity, and region carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only (n=315), cell phones (n=73) and online panels provided by MTurk (n=112).

 

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New Hampshire 2020 Tracking Poll Night 3: Buttigieg Gets An Iowa Bounce, Sanders Maintains Strong Lead

Day 3 of the 7 News/ Emerson College tracking poll of the New Hampshire Democratic Primary finds former Mayor Pete Buttigieg with a bounce out of Iowa as his numbers increased from 12% on Monday to 17%. This separates him from the field and places him in second behind the frontrunner, Senator Bernie Sanders, whose numbers held at 32%. Former VP Joe Biden comes in third at 13%, followed by Senator Amy Klobuchar at 11%, and Senator Elizabeth Warren at 11%. No other candidate reached double digits. Data was collected February 2-4, 2020, but today’s data was collected after the Iowa Democratic Party announced the partial results of the Iowa caucus mixed mode, n=500, margin of error +/- 4.3%.

 

Since yesterday, Sanders and Biden have held their support, Buttigieg has gained 5%, Warren has lost 2%, and Klobuchar has lost 1%.

Spencer Kimball, Director of Emerson College Polling explains that “Bernie may have gotten his bounce yesterday as his Iowa poll numbers made him a front runner and his New Hampshire numbers increased from 29% to 32% between day 1 and 2 of the track, but with the news today of Pete’s Iowa performance he saw his own 5 point bounce between day 2 and 3.”

Continuing the trend found in the first Emerson College tracking poll, Sanders pulls very strong support from younger voters. Among voters under 50 years old, he leads with 42%, followed by Buttigieg with 11%, and Warren and Gabbard with 10%. Among voters 50 and over, Sanders holds a smaller lead with 23% support, followed by Buttigieg with 21%, Biden with 20% and Klobuchar with 13%.

Sanders holds a strong lead among “very liberal” voters garnering 54% support among that group. Following him among those voters is Warren with 19% and Buttigieg with 11%. Among “somewhat liberal” voters, Sanders leads with 35% support followed by Buttigieg with 19%, Warren with 14% and Klobuchar with 13%. And among “moderate” or “conservative” voters, Sanders and Biden lead with 20% support, followed by Buttigieg at 18%, and Klobuchar at 14%.

Sanders leads both congressional districts; in the first district 31% of voters support him, followed by Buttigieg with 16% and Warren with 14%. In the second district, Sanders has a larger lead with 34% support, followed by Buttigieg with 17%, and Biden with 13%.

Voters were also asked to pick the candidate they believe will become the eventual nominee. A plurality (42%) of voters chose Sanders, followed by 32% who chose Biden. Ten-percent (10%) of voters indicated they believed Buttigieg would be the nominee, a slight increase from 7% who chose Buttigieg in yesterday’s poll. Since the beginning of the New Hampshire tracking poll, Biden has moved down seven points in the expected nominee question from 39% to 32%.

The majority of voters, 54% said the most important factor is to select a nominee with the best chance to defeat Donald Trump, in contrast to 46% who select a candidate who is closer to their views on issues.

Caller ID

The New Hampshire Emerson College poll was conducted February 2-February 4, 2020. All data for February 4 was collected between 6pm-8pm EST, after the Iowa Democratic Party announced the partial results of the Iowa caucus. The sample consisted of registered Democratic and Independent voters, n=500, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 4.3 percentage points. The data was weighted based on gender, age, education, region, and based on 2016 turnout model. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, party breakdown, ethnicity and region carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only (n=370) and online panels provided by Dynata and MTurk (n=130).

 

Full Results

New Hampshire 2020 Tracking Poll Night 2: Sanders Lead Extends Further

The second of a continuous eight day 7 News/ Emerson College Polling tracking poll of New Hampshire Democratic Voters finds Senator Bernie Sanders with a commanding lead in the Granite State at 32% support. Former VP Joe Biden and Senator Elizabeth Warren are next with 13%, following them is Senator Amy Klobuchar and Former Mayor Pete Buttigieg with 12%. No other candidate reached double digits. Data was collected February 1-3, 2020, mixed mode, n=500, margin of error +/- 4.3%.

This represents a shift from the previous Emerson College poll of New Hampshire from yesterday, as Sanders gained three points, Biden and Buttigieg lost one point, Warren gained one point, and Klobuchar gained four points.

Continuing the trend found in the first Emerson College tracking poll, Sanders pulls very strong support from younger voters. Among voters under 50 years old, he leads with 40% support and is followed by Warren with 15%, Klobuchar with 10% and Buttigieg with 9%. Among voters 50 and over, Sanders leads with 23%, followed by Biden with 18%, and Buttigieg and Klobuchar with 15%.

Sanders holds a strong lead among “very liberal” voters with 51% support, followed by Warren with 32% and Buttigieg with 10%. Among “somewhat liberal” voters, Sanders also leads with 30% support, followed by Buttigieg and Klobuchar with 15% and Warren with 12%. In a departure from previous Emerson College polls, Sanders also leads among “moderate” and “conservative,” voters, receiving 23% support among that group. Following Sanders is Biden with 19%, Klobuchar with 14% and Buttigieg with 12%.

Within congressional districts, Sanders leads in the first district with 26%, followed by Warren with 18%, Klobuchar with 14%, Buttigieg with 13% and Biden with 12%. In the second district, Sanders is at 37%, followed by Biden with 13%, Buttigieg with 12%, and Klobuchar with 11%.

Voters were also asked to pick the candidate they believe will become the eventual nominee. Most were split between Biden and Sanders; 41% picked Sanders and 33% selected Biden. No other candidate is higher than 7% in this question.

The majority of voters, 54% said the most important factor is to select a nominee with the best chance to defeat Donald Trump, in contrast to 46% who select a candidate who is closer to their views on issues.

The majority (87%) of New Hampshire Primary voters say the events of Monday’s Iowa Caucus will not have an impact on their vote, while 13% say the results of the Caucus will impact who they vote for.

 

Caller ID

The New Hampshire Emerson College poll was conducted February 1-February 3, 2020. The sample consisted of registered Democratic and Independent voters, n=500, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 4.3 percentage points. The data was weighted based on gender, age, education, region, and based on 2016 turnout model. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, party breakdown, ethnicity and region carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced.

Full Results

New Hampshire 2020 Tracking Poll Night 1: Sanders Opens Commanding Lead

The first of a continuous eight-day 7 News/ Emerson College Polling tracking poll of New Hampshire Democratic Voters finds Senator Bernie Sanders with a commanding lead in the Granite State at 29% support. Former VP Joe Biden follows the Senator with 14%, followed by former Mayor Pete Buttigieg with 13%, and Senator Elizabeth Warren with 12%. No other candidate reached double digits. Data was collected from January 31 – February 2, 2020, mixed-mode, n=500, margin of error +/- 4.3%.

This represents a shift from the previous Emerson College poll of New Hampshire, as Sanders has increased his lead over the other candidates by ten points. Since mid-January, Sanders has gained six points, Biden has maintained his support level, Buttigieg has dropped five points, and Warren has lost two.

Continuing the trend found in other Emerson College polls, Sanders pulls very strong support from younger voters. Among voters under 50 years old, he leads with 38% support and is followed by Warren with 13%, Buttigieg with 11%, Gabbard with 10% and Yang with 9%. In contrast among voters 50 and over, Biden leads with 24%, followed by Sanders with 20%, Buttigieg with 15%, and Klobuchar with 12%.

Sanders holds a strong lead among “very liberal” voters with 39% support, followed by Warren with 27% and Buttigieg and Gabbard with 10%. Among “somewhat liberal” voters, Sanders also leads with 36% support, followed by Biden with 19% and Buttigieg with 14%. In a departure from previous Emerson College polls, Sanders also leads among “moderate” and “conservative,” voters, receiving 20% support among that group. Following Sanders is Biden with 19%, Buttigieg with 13% and Klobuchar with 12%.

Looking at gender, Sanders does 11 points better among women than among men, with 34% and 23% support respectively. The inverse is true of Yang and Gabbard, as they both garner 3% support among women; Yang receives 11% and Gabbard receives 12% support from men.

Within congressional districts, Sanders leads in the first district with 26%, followed by Warren with 15%, Biden and Buttigieg with 12% and Klobuchar with 10%. In the second district, Sanders is at 32%, followed by Biden with 17%, Buttigieg with 14%, and Yang with 9%.

Voters were also asked to pick the candidate they believe will become the eventual nominee. Most were split between Biden and Sanders; 39% picked Biden and 38% selected Sanders. No other candidate is higher than 5% in this question.

The majority of voters, 55% said the most important factor is to select a nominee with the best chance to defeat Donald Trump, in contrast to 46% who select a candidate who is closer to their views on issues.

The majority (87%) of New Hampshire Primary voters say the events of Monday’s Iowa Caucus will not have an impact on their vote, while 13% say the results of the Caucus will impact who they vote for.

Caller ID

The New Hampshire Emerson College poll was conducted January 31-February 2, 2020. The sample consisted of registered Democratic and Independent voters, n=500, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 4.3 percentage points. The data was weighted based on gender, age, education, region, and based on 2016 turnout model. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, party breakdown, ethnicity and region carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only (n=293) and online panels provided by Dynata and MTurk (n=207).

 

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Iowa 2020: Sanders On Top Going Into Caucus Night

The final Emerson College/7 News Iowa poll finds Senator Bernie Sanders with a solid lead going into Monday’s caucus with 28% support. Former Vice President Joe Biden follows with 21%, former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg is at 15%, Senator Elizabeth Warren is at 14%, and Senator Amy Klobuchar is the only other candidate in double digits with 11%. Data was collected from January 30 – February 2, 2020, mixed-mode, n=853, margin of error of +/- 3.3%.

This represents a slight shift from last week’s Emerson College/ Channel 7 poll of Iowa; Sanders has dropped two points, Buttigieg has gained five points, and Warren picked up three points. Biden’s support was unchanged and Klobuchar has lost two points.

Sixty-six (66%) percent of likely Democratic Caucus-goers will definitely vote for their candidate, but on the eve of the Iowa Caucuses, 34% say there is still a chance they could change their mind, and vote for someone else. Sanders supporters are most solid in their support, with 74% saying they will definitely vote for Sanders. Sixty-nine percent (69%) of Buttigieg supporters have made up their mind, followed by 68% of Warren supporters and 66% of Biden supporters. Forty-five (45%) percent of likely Caucus-goers made up their mind over a month ago, 26% made up their mind in the last month, 15% made up their mind sometime last week, 11% made up their mind in the last few days, and 3% said they made up their mind that day.

Yang’s supporters are the most recent in deciding on their candidate, with 10% recently settling on Yang. Eighteen percent (18%) of Klobuchar’s supporters have decided in the last three days, while 23% said sometime within the last week. Warren, Buttigieg, and Yang share the same percentage of supporters who settled on their favorite candidate within the last week (12%). In contrast, Sanders has the longest term supporters, with 59% choosing the Vermont Senator over a month ago.

Respondents were also asked about their second choice candidate. Among Warren supporters, 46% chose Sanders, and 25% chose Klobuchar. Of Buttigieg supporters, 30% picked Klobuchar, 22% picked Warren, 19% picked Sanders, and 18% picked Biden. And of Klobuchar supporters, 41% had Biden as their second choice, 26% had Warren and 23% had Buttigieg.

The key to Sanders’s lead is his overwhelming support among young voters, as he garners 45% support among 18-49-year-olds. Following Sanders is Buttigieg and Warren with 15% and 14% respectively, and Biden with 7%. Among voters 50 and over, Biden leads with 33% support, followed by Klobuchar at 18%, Buttigieg at 14%, Warren at 13% and Sanders at 12%.

Another factor in Sanders’ lead is his strength among “very liberal” voters. He leads that group with 46%, followed by Warren at 21% and Biden at 12%. Sanders has a smaller lead among “somewhat liberal” voters with 25%, compared to Biden at 20%, Buttigieg at 19% and Warren at 17%. Biden holds a lead among “moderate” and “conservative” voters with 28% support, following him is Sanders at 18%, Buttigieg at 15% and Klobuchar at 13%.

In the first district, Sanders and Biden are close, with 22% and 21% support respectively. Warren and Buttigieg both reach viability with Warren at 17%, and Buttigieg at 15%. In the second district, Buttigieg is viable with 15%; Sanders received 28% and Biden 24%. In the third district, four candidates reach 15%: Sanders leads with 26%, followed by Biden with 19%, Warren with 16% and Buttigieg with 15%. And in the fourth district, Sanders leads with 36%, followed by Biden at 21% and no other candidate reaches 15%.

Research Assistant Brendan Kane notes that “an important thing for Sanders’ campaign is how Warren’s support varies across the state. Sanders is the second choice of nearly half of Warren supporters, and she is right on the edge of the 15% viability threshold in the first, second and third congressional districts, compared to the fourth district where she is at just 6%.”

There is also a divide along the lines of religious affiliation, as Biden leads among Protestants with 28% support, and among Roman Catholics with 30% support. While among Atheists/Agnostics, Sanders leads with 39% and among respondents who answered none, Sanders leads with 41% support.

Seventy-eight percent of Democratic Caucus-goers said they had previously attended an Iowa Democratic Caucus as compared to 22% who said they had never before caucused. Among those who have not attended a Democratic Caucus in Iowa, 22% plan to caucus for Sanders, 21% for Buttigieg, 17% for Biden, 16% for Warren, and 6% for Yang.

Voters were also asked which parent was the primary breadwinner in their household growing up; 53% reported it was their father, 15% said their mother, and 29% had both parents working. Among those who said the father was the primary breadwinner, 26% support Biden in the Democratic caucus, 21% support Sanders, 14% support Buttigieg, and 14% support Warren. Of those who lived in a household with the mother being the primary breadwinner, 43% support Sanders, 25% support Buttigieg, and 14% support Warren. Sanders also leads with 27% among those who had both parents working, followed by Biden with 20% and Warren with 13%.

When asked if they would still support the Democratic nominee in the general election, even if their preferred candidate did not receive the nomination, 76% said yes. 6% said no, and 18% said it depends on the nominee. Among the top candidates, 90% of Biden supporters will support the nominee, followed by 88% of Buttigieg supporters, 85% of Klobuchar supporters, 84% of Warren supporters, as compared to only 62% of Sanders supporters who vowed to support the eventual nominee. Thirty-two percent (32%) of Sanders supporters and 16% of Warren supporters said that it depends on who the nominee ends up being.

The most important issue among those polled is health care at 32%, followed by social issues and the environment with 17%, the economy with 14%, and impeachment with 7%.

Sanders was seen as the candidate with the best environmental policy by 32% of respondents, followed by Warren at 16%, Biden at 13%, and Buttigieg at 11%.

Caller ID

The Iowa Emerson College poll was conducted January 30-February 2, 2020. The sample consisted of registered Democratic and Independent voters, n=853, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3.3 percentage points. The data was weighted based on gender, age, education, region, and based on 2016 turnout model. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, party breakdown, ethnicity and region carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only (n=288), online panels provided by Dynata and MTurk (n=310), and cell phone (n=255) only responses via opt-in text message.

 

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Iowa 2020: Sanders Solidifies Frontrunner Status in Iowa While Klobuchar Nears Viability

A new Emerson College/7 News Poll finds Senator Bernie Sanders leading the Iowa Democratic Caucus with 30% support, followed by former V.P. Joe Biden at 21%. Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar has surged to third place with 13% while Senator Elizabeth Warren and former Mayor Pete Buttigieg are the other candidates in double digits – Warren with 11% and Buttigieg with 10%. Data was collected January 23-26, mix mode, n=450, margin of error of +/- 4.6%.

Compared to the Emerson Poll of Iowa in December, Sanders has picked up the most support, rising eight points. Biden has lost two points, Klobuchar has moved up three points, and Warren has dropped one point. Buttigieg has lost the most support, falling eight points. Yang and Gabbard have each risen by three points, and Steyer has moved up two points.

Spencer Kimball, Director of Emerson College Polling, points out that “currently, only two candidates are above the 15 percent threshold. This means that at the caucus, the second and third-tier candidate supporters will have an impact on the eventual winner, even if the winner is not their first choice.”

However, Kimball cautions that “there is still over a week until the Caucus and as we saw in 2016 with Trump ahead a week out but losing the final vote to Cruz, that is enough time to see significant changes in the race.”

Respondents were asked who their second choice would be if their first choice candidate fails to reach viability. Klobuchar supporters are breaking for Biden at 39%, followed by Buttigieg at 28%. Sanders is the top second choice of Warren supporters at 51%, 17% of Warren supporters chose Klobuchar as their second choice, and 16% of them chose Biden as their second choice. And of Buttigieg supporters, Biden is the most popular second choice option with 35%, by Klobuchar at 25% and Warren at 23%. For Yang supporters, 49% of his support would fall to Sanders, followed by 18% who indicate would leave the caucus if Yang is unsuccessful in gaining caucus support. A plurality of Gabbard supporters (35%) will leave the caucus if she does not reach viability, followed by 26% who would move to Warren, and 18% who would move to Sanders.

Over the past year, Biden has witnessed a slow downward trajectory in the Emerson Polls of Iowa voters, and this is the first time the former VP has not been in the lead. Klobuchar has gained the most in support in the last two polls. Sanders is the only candidate to hit 30% in any Emerson poll of Iowa during the past year.

Sanders performs the strongest among voters under 50. 44% of those under 50 plan to support Sanders, followed by Warren with 10%; no other candidate reaches double digits. Among those over 50, voters are more split: 32% plan to support Biden, 18% plan to support Sanders, 17% Klobuchar, 15% Buttigieg, and 12% plan to caucus for Warren.

Spencer Kimball, Director of Emerson College Polling, said “younger voters have coalesced around Sanders, but older voters seem to be having cold feet on Mayor Pete and are taking a serious look at Amy Klobuchar. This is Pete’s lowest level of support since he surged onto the Iowa stage in March.”

In the first congressional district, a swing district represented by Abby Finkenaur, Sanders and Biden are neck and neck with 27% and 26% percent respectively; Klobuchar receives 16% in this district. Sanders also holds 27% in Eastern Iowa, in the second district represented by Dave Loebsack, followed by Biden with 20%. Sanders has 29% in the third district of Iowa home of the state’s largest city, Des Moines, followed by Biden with 18% and Klobuchar with 15%. In the fourth district, the most conservative district represented by Rep. Steve King, Sanders has the most significant lead: 39%, followed by Biden with 18% and Warren with 11%.

Sanders also holds a strong lead with “very liberal” voters, as he garners 46% support in this group. Warren follows at 17%, Buttigieg at 14%, and Biden at 8%. Among “somewhat liberal voters”, Sanders also leads with 36%, with Biden at 19%, Klobuchar 15%, and Warren 13%. Among “moderate” or “conservative” voters, Biden leads with 29%, followed by Sanders and Klobuchar with 15%, and Buttigieg with 12%.

Sanders holds a solid lead among both male and female voters. Among men, Sanders has 32% support, followed by Biden at 22%, Klobuchar at 14%, and Gabbard at 9%. Among women, Sanders is at 28%, Biden is at 20%, Warren is at 15% and Buttigieg is at 13%.

Iowa voters are finalizing their caucus decision, with 62% saying they will definitely vote for their candidate, whereas 38% indicate there is still a chance they could change their mind and vote for someone else. Sanders supporters are the most committed to their candidate, with 69% followed by 68% of Biden and Warren supporters, and 63% of Buttigieg supporters. In contrast, 43% of Klobuchar supporters said that they will definitely support the Minnesota Senator as their first-choice candidate.

Healthcare remains the most important issue for Democratic voters when deciding for whom they will vote for for president at 34%, followed by the environment and the economy with 16% each, and social issues at 12%. Foreign policy is the top issue for 6% of voters, impeachment and education for 5% of voters, immigration for 4% of voters, and gun control is the top issue for just 3% of voters.

When Iowa voters were asked about which candidate had the best healthcare policy, 35% said Bernie Sanders followed by Biden with 21%, Warren with 14%, Buttigieg with 13%, Klobuchar at 9% and someone else at 8%.

A strong majority, 75%, of Iowa voters said that they will vote for the Democratic nominee in November, even if their preferred candidate does not earn the nomination. Only 3% said that they would not support the nominee, and 21% said that it depends on who is the eventual nominee is.

Voters were also asked if they think Medicare for All will be more or less costly than the current healthcare system. 40% believe it will cost less, 34% believe it will cost more and 26% were unsure. Within Sanders supporters, 64% believe it will cost less and among Biden supporters, 60% believe it will cost more.

When Iowa voters had a choice of whether they would want to keep their current healthcare plan or switch to a publicly funded option like Medicare, 38% said that they would keep their current healthcare plan, 33% said they would opt to swap to a publicly funded option, 19% stated that they were already on Medicare, and 10% were unsure.

The majority of voters, 53%, support candidate Andrew Yang’s signature policy of Universal Basic Income of $1000 a month for all U.S. citizens over the age of 18. This contrasts to 30% who do not support the plan and 17% who are unsure. Those 18-29 years old are the most likely to support this policy, with 83% of support. A majority (61%) of those 30-49 years support UBI, while only 45% of those 50-64, and 32% of those 65 and older support the policy.

Voters are fairly split on supporting a candidate who advocates decriminalizing illegal border crossings. 36% favor decriminalization as compared to 28% who oppose, and 36% who are unsure. Sanders and Warren’s supporters have a higher level of support for this policy: Sanders’ supporters at 45%, and Warren’s supporters at 40%. Much lower levels of support were seen in Biden voters, who said yes at 28%, no at 22%, and 49% were largely unsure.

Iowa Democratic caucus voters were asked if the Senate should vote to remove President Trump from office. A strong majority, 79%, think Trump should be removed, 13% think he should not, and 8% were unsure.

Fifty-five percent (55%) of Iowa Democratic Caucus goers were unsure of their position on the new US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) that replaces the current North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). Twenty-eight percent (28%) support the USMCA, and 17% said they oppose it.

Caller ID

The Iowa Emerson College poll was conducted January 23-26, 2020. The sample consisted of registered Democratic and Independent voters, n=450, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 4.6 percentage points. The data was weighted based on gender, age, education, region, and based on 2016 turnout model. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, party breakdown, ethnicity and region carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using both an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only (n=218) and an online panel provided by Dynata and MTurk (n=232).

Results

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