Michigan 2020: Democrats Aim to Take Back the State; Flint Water Crisis Still at Issue

The newest Emerson poll in Michigan finds former Vice President Joe Biden still leading the Democratic primary in the state with 34%, followed by Senator Bernie Sanders at 28%. Compared to Emerson’s March poll of Michigan voters, Biden’s support has shrunk from 40%, and Sanders has gained 5 points from 23%. Senator Elizabeth Warren, who was at 11% in the state in March, is now in third at 19%. Mayor Pete Buttigieg is at 8%, Senator Kamala Harris, who was at 12% in the state in March, is now at 3%. (n=454, +/-4.6%)

With voters in the 18-29 age range, Sanders holds a very strong lead with 73% of the vote, and competes with Warren for the 30-49 year olds, with both Senators tied at 28%. Among those over 50, Sanders struggles to take 10%. Voters over 50 are heavily breaking for Biden, who gets 53%

Spencer Kimball, Director of Emerson Polling, noted that “in 2016, Sanders was able to shock the political establishment by winning Michigan, and it looks like his base of youthful support positions him do it again on March 10th.”

When asked if Secretary Hillary Clinton should run for president again in 2020, 70% of Michigan Democrats said she should not run, 18% said she should, and 12% were unsure.

The majority (50%) of Michigan voters disapprove of the President, compared to 43% who approve. 47% support impeaching Trump, and 43% are in opposition. In the Republican primary, President Trump has a strong lead over other candidates, with 92% of the vote.

Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer has a 38% disapproval rating, with 31% approval, 27% with no opinion, and 4% who have never heard of the governor. She struggles in the Flint region of the state, where her approval is underwater at 38% disapproval and 33% approval, while the Detroit area is still supportive with 38% approval and 24% disapproval. In a follow-up question about the Flint Water Crisis, 66% of voters said they think state and local officials should be held criminally responsible, while 11% did not and 23% were unsure.

In general election matchups against the President, leading Democratic candidates Biden, Sanders, and Warren all lead Trump by a magnitude that is outside the margin of error.

In the upcoming Senate election, the incumbent Democratic Senator Gary Peters holds a lead above Republican candidate John James, 46% to 40%.

The plurality of voters (27%) say the economy is the most important issue in deciding their vote for president, followed by health care (21%), and social issues (19%).

When voters were asked which health care policy they support – Medicare for All was the most popular option at 36%, followed by a public option at 21%. 18% of voters want to keep things as they are, 14% want something else, and 11% are unsure. Medicare for All is the leading option for Democrats with 58%. Independents are split between a public option (26%), something else (25%), and Medicare for All (21%). A plurality (27%) of Republicans want to keep things as they are, followed by 24% who want a public option, and 22% who want Medicare for All.

Caller ID

The Michigan Emerson College poll was conducted October 31-November 3, 2019 under the Supervision of Assistant Professor Spencer Kimball. The sample consisted of registered voters, n=1,051, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3 percentage points. The data was weighted based on 2016 voter model of ethnicity, age, education, region. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, party breakdown, ethnicity and region carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using both an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only (n=669) and an online panel provided by Amazon Turk (n=382).

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Nevada 2020: Biden Extends Lead, Warren Jumps to Second

A new Emerson College poll finds former Vice President Joe Biden with a lead in the Democratic primary in Nevada with 30%, followed by Senator Elizabeth Warren at 22% and Senator Bernie Sanders at 19%. No other candidate clears 10%. Compared to Emerson’s last poll of the state in March, Biden has extended his lead, gaining 4% from the 26% he had in the earlier poll. Warren has increased her lead by 12 points since March, while Sanders and Harris fell four points, and Buttigieg stayed the same. n=451, +/-4.6)

53% of the Democrats polled said there is a chance they could change their mind and vote for someone else, as compared to 48% who said they will definitely vote for their chosen candidate. Biden and Sanders supporters are much more committed to their candidate than Warren supporters: 55% of Biden supporters and 50% of Sanders supporters said they will definitely vote for their first choice candidate; only 27% of Warren supporters said the same.

In a change from previous Emerson polls, Warren leads with those under 50, with 27%, followed by Biden with 23% and Sanders with 18%. Among voters 50 and over, Biden leads with 39%, followed by Sanders with 20%, and Warren with 16%.

Spencer Kimball, Director of Emerson Polling, concludes: “It is important for Biden to maintain his support in Nevada since polling shows him with some trouble in Iowa and New Hampshire. As Nevada is the third state in the nomination process, Biden needs a firewall there or in South Carolina if he struggles in the first two contests in order to propel him on to Super Tuesday on March 3.”

The majority of Democrats in Nevada were opposed to Secretary Hillary Clinton running again in 2020: Sixty-seven percent are opposed to her running as compared to 23% who support her presidential bid. 10% were unsure.

In the Republican primary, President Trump has a strong lead over other candidates, with 92% of the vote. President Trump has a 48% disapproval rating overall in the Silver State, with 46% approval. However, only 45% of voters in the state support impeaching President Trump, whereas 48% oppose impeachment.

The plurality of Nevadans (36%) approve of the job Democratic Governor Steve Sisolak is doing as opposed to 31% who disapprove, and 28% have no opinion.

In head-to-head matchups with the top 3 Democratic candidates, Trump ties Sanders at 50% each, but slightly leads Biden and Warren with 51% to 49% each.

When asked what health care policy they support most, Medicare for All was the most popular option for Nevada voters at 28%, followed by keeping things as they are, and a public option, both at 23%. 15% of voters want something else, and 12% say they are unsure. Medicare for All is the leading option for both Democrats (44%) and Independents (27%), while a plurality of Republicans (34%) want to keep things as they are.

A plurality of voters (32%) chose the economy as their most important issue impacting their vote for President, followed by health care (16%), immigration (12%), and social issues (12%). Impeachment and the environment rank next at 8% each.

Fifty-nine percent of Nevada voters think the rest of the country should become more like Nevada, compared to the other 41% who want Nevada to be more like the rest of the country. 66% of Democrats believe the country should be more like Nevada along with 56% of Republican and 55% of Independents.

There will be a ballot initiative in Nevada in 2020 that will require utilities to get 50 percent of their electricity from renewable sources. When asked about this proposal, 50% were in support, 25% in opposition and 25% were unsure. Sixty-two percent of Democrats are in support, compared to 32% of Republicans and 55% of Independents.

Caller ID

The Nevada Emerson College poll was conducted October 31-November 2, 2019 under the Supervision of Assistant Professor Spencer Kimball. The sample consisted of registered voters, n=1,089, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 2.9 percentage points. The data was weighted based on 2016 voter model of gender, party, age, ethnicity, age, and region. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, party breakdown, ethnicity and region carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using both an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only (n=702) and an online panel provided by Amazon Turk (n=195) and Dynata (n=191).

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Arizona Poll: Toss Ups in Presidential and Senate Races; Biden Holds Small Lead in Democratic Primary with Warren and Sanders Tied for Second.

A new Emerson College Poll finds President Trump’s approval underwater in Arizona, at 50% disapproval and 45% approval. Despite his disapproval, a majority of voters in Arizona (50%) oppose impeaching the President, while slightly less (44%) support impeachment (n=901, +/-3.2%, MM, Oct 25-28, 2019).

In potential general election match-ups, Arizona appears to be competitive once again in 2020 with Trump tied 50%-50% against Warren and Biden, and leading Sanders 51% to 49%, well within the margin of error. 

In the Arizona Senate race, the Democrats are also competitive, with Democratic challenger Mark Kelly at 46%, and incumbent appointed Republican Sen. Martha McSally at 45%. Kelly leads among Independents by a margin of 45% to 41%. 

The economy is the most important issue for one in three voters in Arizona (33%), followed by healthcare (18%), immigration (13%) and social issues (11%). Impeachment came in 5th out of 9 issues (8%), just ahead of the environment (7%).

Regarding healthcare policy, 31% of Arizonans support a public option, 28% want to keep things as they are, 23% support Medicare for All, and 19% are unsure. Among Democrats, 45% support Medicare for All, compared to only 13% of Independents and 14% of Republicans. 42% of Republicans say they want to keep things as they are, compared to only 12% of Democrats and 27% of Independents in favor of the status quo. 34% of Independents prefer the public option, compared to 31% of Democrats and 27% of Republicans. 

Spencer Kimball, Director of Emerson Polling, said: “Interestingly, the healthcare policy at issue is President Obama’s Affordable Care Act and in Arizona, a plurality of Republicans want to keep the current healthcare policy as is, while Democrats overwhelmingly want to change the current policy.”

In the Democratic Primary, former VP Joe Biden leads the Democratic field with 28%, Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders are in a dead heat for second at 21% each. Pete Buttigieg follows at 12%, and no other candidate is above 5% (n=339, +/-5.2%).

Sanders continues to do well with those under 50 with 35% support among that group, his support drops dramatically to just 7% with voters over 50. Biden continues with the reverse trend as he takes 33% of the vote from those over 50 and 21% from those under 50. Warren draws equally from each age group receiving 23% support from those under 50 and 20% support from those over 50. Andrew Yang is a favorite of the 18-29 year old crowd at 19%. Pete Buttigieg’s support is disproportionately older as he gets 21% support from those over 50 and just 3% support from under 50.

Among those who supported Hillary Clinton in the 2016 primary, Biden leads with 37%, followed by Warren with 27%, Buttigieg with 13% and Sanders with 11%. And among those who supported Sanders in 2016, 35% still support him, 21% support Biden, 18% support Warren and 9% support Buttigieg. 

Looking into racial breakdowns, Warren leads among white voters with 29%, followed by Biden with 22%, Sanders with 18% and Buttigieg with 16%. Among non-white voters, Biden leads with 38%, followed by Sanders with 26%, Warren with 9% and Yang with 8%.

A majority (56%) of Arizona Democratic primary voters think a moderate Democrat has the best chance of winning in the general election, as contrasted to 26% who think a progressive Democrat, 12% a conservative Democrat, and 7% who said a Democratic Socialist would stand the best chance of beating Trump.

GOP Governor Doug Ducey has a 42% approval and 32% disapproval. His net approval is 45 points better among Democrats and 15 points better among Independents than Trump’s approval rating. 

 

Caller ID

The Arizona Emerson College poll was conducted October 25-28, 2019 under the Supervision of Emerson Polling Director and Assistant Professor Spencer Kimball. The sample consisted of registered voters, n=901, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3.2 percentage points. The data was weighted by gender, age, ethnicity, region and mode based on 2016 turnout modeling. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, party breakdown, ethnicity and region carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using both an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only (n=572) and an online panel provided by Amazon Turk (n=329).

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2019 US National Public Opinion Survey Of Global Strategic Partnerships and Education Diplomacy

Emerson College Polling, under the supervision of Assistant Professor Spencer Kimball
is pleased to present the Association of Marshall Scholars with the findings from a
survey of American attitudes toward strategic alliances, international partnerships and
overseas learning. All respondents interviewed in this study were part of a fully
representative sample using an area probabilistic sampling method of N= 1,600 (sample
size).

Report:

Results:

Biden, Sanders, Warren Maintain Front Runner Status in Democratic Primary

A new Emerson Poll finds former VP Joe Biden continues to hold a small lead in the Democratic primary nationally with 27% support, followed by Sen. Bernie Sanders at 25% and Sen. Elizabeth Warren at 21%, no other candidates clears 6%. (n=430, +/- 4.7%). This represents a small shift from Emerson’s September poll that had Biden at 25%, Warren at 23% and Sanders at 22%.

Sanders continues to dominate the 18-29 age group with 45% of the vote, followed by Warren at 17%, and Andrew Yang with 15%. As voters get older, Sanders sees his support drop, with 28% among 30-49 year olds, and only 15% of those 50-64 and 6% of voters over 65. Biden is more popular with older voters, receiving 12% support from 18-29 year olds, 17% from 30-49 year olds and 44% of voters over 50. Warren continues to pull similar support from those under 50 and those over 50. Emerson Polling Research Assistant Isabel Holloway notes that “having a more even age distribution of supporters could put Warren in a strong position, but, in order to capitalize on this strategy, either Biden or Sanders would need to lose their hold on their older and younger bases.”

Biden leads those who supported Clinton in the 2016 primary with 42%, followed by Warren with 16% and Sanders with 14%. Sanders holds a lead among those who supported him in the 2016 primary with 39% support, followed by Warren with 25% and Biden with 12%. Research Assistant Brendan Kane points out that “in order to create a winning coalition in the primary, Sanders will need to win back more of the voters who supported him in 2016 from Warren than he is currently receiving.” 

Sanders also leads among very/somewhat liberal voters with 30% support, followed by Warren with 25% and Biden with 21%. Among moderate/conservative voters, Biden leads with 36% support followed by Sanders and Warren with 16%.

President Trump’s job approval numbers are down 5 points from last month, at 47% disapproval and 43% approval (n=1,000, +/-3%). However, within a potential Republican Primary, Trump remains strong as he leads a field of three potential rivals with 91% of the vote (n=378, +/-4.9%)

In potential head to head matchups against the top three Democratic rivals, Trump trails Warren, Biden, and Sanders 51% to 49%.


The most important issue for voters in deciding their vote for president continues to be the economy at 31%, followed by social issues at 14%, healthcare at 13%, impeachment at 11%, immigration at 10% and the environment at 8%. Gun policy and education are tied at 5%, and foreign policy is the least important issue for voters at 4%.

For Democrats, the second most important issue relative to their vote for President is impeachment at 19%. Republicans are not as concerned with impeachment; it ranks near the bottom at 3%. Independents lie in the middle, with 11% seeing impeachment as the most important issue. This is a change from the September Emerson Poll where impeachment was the least important issue for voters at 3%, and healthcare was the second most important issue at 19%. Spencer Kimball, Director of Emerson Polling concludes that “the shift in priority of issues appears to be Democrats moving their focus from healthcare to impeachment; the challenge for Democrats will be to convince Independents that impeachment is a very important issue to be addressed.”  

The economy is the most important issue for Republican voters at 45% and Independents at 28%, as compared among Democrats where 20% chose it as the most important issue.

Voters are slightly in favor of impeachment of President Trump at this time, with 48% in support and 44% oppose, 9% were unsure. Spencer Kimball, Director of Emerson Polling says that “impeachment does have the potential to boomerang on Democrats if President Trump is not convicted, as 35% of voters said they would be more likely to vote for President Trump if he is impeached and not convicted, while a lesser 28% saying a lack of conviction would make them less likely to vote for Trump.”

Several Democratic candidates have suggested a buyback assault weapons gun policy; a plurality, 46% oppose any type of assault weapons buyback program while 31% support a mandatory assault weapons buyback program, and 22% support a voluntary assault weapons buyback program. The most popular choice for Democrats is a mandatory buyback program with 50% support. A majority of Republicans (61%) and Independents (53%) support neither policy.

Voters are split on the Trump administration’s decision to withdraw American troops in Syria with 40% in support, 39% oppose, 20% were unsure, while  2% had never heard of the issue.

Voters strongly oppose (70%) employers to be allowed to change or eliminate an employee’s health insurance against the employee’s wishes. 11% support the employers’ ability to change insurance and 20% were unsure.

 

Caller ID

The National Emerson College poll was conducted October 18-21, 2019 under the Supervision of Emerson Polling Director and Assistant Professor Spencer Kimball. The sample consisted of registered voters, n=1000, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3 percentage points. The data was weighted by region, gender, age, race and mode based on 2016 turnout modeling. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, party breakdown, ethnicity and region carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using both an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only (n=655) and an online panel provided by Amazon Turk (n=345).

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Iowa 2020: Dead heat with Biden and Warren, Mayor Pete continues to build and Sanders slides

In the first caucus state of the 2020 presidential election, the Democrat Primary field has shifted since the last Emerson poll in March. Former V.P. Joe Biden is now tied with Sen. Elizabeth Warren for the lead 23% each, followed by Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 16%, and Sen. Bernie Sanders dropping to fourth at 13%. No other candidate reaches above 5%. (n=317, +/-5.5%, MM, Oct 13-16, 2019)

According to Spencer Kimball, Director of Emerson Polling, “The good news for Biden is he did not lose much ground since March’s poll that had him at 25% of the vote. It appears that Warren has been the beneficiary of Sanders’s drop from 24% to 13%; Mayor Pete appears to have solidified his base in Iowa, going from 0% in February, to 11% in March, and now 16% in the Hawkeye state.”

Warren has also overtaken Sanders among voters under the age of 50. 21% of those under 50 support Warren followed by Sanders at 18%. Biden continues to lead with those over 50 – receiving  33% support from this cohort, followed by Warren at 24%.

Warren also now leads Sanders among those who supported the Vermont Senator in the 2016 caucus; Warren has 26% among this group, followed by Sanders at 19%, and Buttigieg at 16%. Among those who supported Hillary Clinton in the 2016 caucus, Biden captures 42%, followed by Warren at 22% and Buttigieg at 13%. 

Income level is a driving factor in voter preference among the top candidates. Among those making less than $50,000 a year, Biden, Sanders and Warren are all at 20%. Among those making more than $50,000 a year, Sanders is at 8%, Warren is at 24% and Biden is at 25%. 

President Trump holds a 47% disapproval and a 44% approval rating in Iowa while the Republican Governor Kim Reynolds is at 39% approval and 35% disapproval. Broken down, the President has a 52% disapproval among women, with a 39% approval, as compared to a 42% disapproval among men, with a 51% approval. A plurality of voters – 48 % – oppose impeachment with 42% supporting impeachment (n=829, +/- 3.3%). 

In the GOP primary, Trump leads the field of four candidates with 93% of the vote. (n=286, +/- 5.7%)

In hypothetical head to head matchups, Trump has a slight advantage over Warren and Biden:  51% to 49%, while Sanders carries a 2 point advantage over Trump with 51% to 49%; all three match-ups are within the polls margin of error. (n=888, +/-3.2%)

The most important issue for voters in Iowa in deciding for whom to vote for president is the economy at 33%, followed by healthcare at 19% and social issues at 10%. Impeachment ranked 7 out of 9 at 6%, ahead of education at 5% and foreign policy at 3%. Among Democrats, the most important issue is health care at 25%, followed by the economy at 17% and the environment at 14%. The majority of Republicans (55%) identify  the economy as the most important issue, followed by immigration at 14%. Independents are split between the economy (27%) and healthcare (24%). 

“The Democrats have some work to do in Iowa convincing voters that impeachment is a top priority of Congress;  67% of Democrats in Iowa support impeaching the president, but only 10% identify it as the most important issue in deciding their vote for president,” added Kimball.

One in four voters (25%) said they have seen a presidential candidate in person, and, as expected, Democratic primary voters were more likely to have seen a candidate at 34%. 

It is important for Iowans to be the first state in the Presidential nomination process to vote, 69% said it was important, while 31% said it was not important. There was no significant difference based on party affiliation and attitude toward the historic first in the nation caucus.

The Democratic Primary for US Senate is wide open with no clear frontrunner  – 74% of Democratic primary voters are still undecided. Theresa Greenfield is at 11%, Michael Franken and Eddie Mauro are both tied at 6% while Kimberly Graham is at 4%. 

In a potential head to head matchup against Sen. Joni Ernst, Greenfield trails 47% to 40% with 14% undecided.

 

Caller ID

The Iowa Emerson College poll was conducted October 13-16, 2019 under the Supervision of Emerson Polling Director and Assistant Professor Spencer Kimball. The sample consisted of registered voters, n=888, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3.2 percentage points. The data was weighted by gender, age, education, region and mode based on 2016 turnout modeling. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, party breakdown, ethnicity and region carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using both an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only (n=571) and an online panel provided by Amazon Turk and Dynata (n=317).

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Louisiana Governor Within Margin of Victory, Impeachment more Popular in Louisiana than Expected

A final Emerson College pre-election primary poll in the Louisiana Governor race finds Democratic Governor John Bel Edwards leading with 48% of the vote. Republican Businessman Eddie Rispone and Republican Congressman Ralph Abraham follow in a statistical tie, with 25% and 19% respectively. Independent Gary Landrieu is at 4%, Republican Patrick Landry is at 3% and Democrat Oscar Dantzler at 1%. (Oct 4-7, MM, n=467, +/-4.5%) 

This jungle primary will be held on Saturday, October 12, 2019. If no candidate reaches 50% on Saturday, a general two-candidate election will be held on November 16.  

Spencer Kimball, Director of the Emerson Poll points out:  “the poll shows incumbent Governor Edwards with a chance to win the race outright. However, if he does fall short of 50%, there is a competitive race to watch between Rispone and Abraham to determine who will challenge Edwards on November 16th.”

Kimball went on to say that “this race is close enough that one of the third tier candidates winning just a few percentage points could pull enough of the vote to keep Edwards from clearing the 50% threshold, on the flip side a melt of support could put Edwards over the top.”

Respondents were first asked their vote preference with an option of undecided, of which 5% of voters said they were still undecided. These voters were then asked a follow up question asking which candidates they leaned toward at this time, Edwards took 43% of the undecided vote, which combined with his base vote moves him from 46% to 48%. Both Rispone and Abraham’s vote share increase by one percent, when the undecided voters are added to their total. 

Edwards approval rating as Governor also falls at 48% approval, with 38% disapproval and 14% undecided.

Edwards’s base support is in the Eastern part of the state from New Orleans to Baton Rouge. Kimball suggests focusing on “ the 2nd, 5th and 6th congressional districts to see Edwards returns; If he exceeds expectations in those parts of the state, he has a real chance of winning 50% of the vote and winning the election outright.”

President Trump, who won the state by 20 points in 2016, has a 50% approval and 42% disapproval with 8% undecided. On the issue of impeaching the President, a plurality, 48%, oppose impeachment, and 43% are in support of impeachment. Kimball said, “this data suggests that the President has lost some ground in Louisiana. The issue of impeachment was more popular than what would be expected.”

 

Caller ID

The Louisiana Emerson College poll was conducted October 4-7, 2019 under the Supervision of Emerson Polling Director Assistant Professor Spencer Kimball. The sample consisted of likely voters, n=467, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 4.5 percentage points. The data was weighted by gender, party affiliation, age, and ethnicity based on 2016 turnout modeling. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, party breakdown, ethnicity and region carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only (n=248), an online panel provided by Amazon Turk (n=171) and cell phone (n=48) only responses via opt-in text message.

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Statistical Dead-heat with Biden, Sanders and Warren; Voters Support Impeachment

A new poll of Ohio voters finds a very competitive Democratic primary between former Vice President Joe Biden at 29%, Sen. Bernie Sanders at 27% and Sen. Elizabeth Warren at 21%. No other candidate in the race clears 7%. Data collected Sept 29-Oct 2, n=353 +/-5.2%.

On the issue of impeachment, 47% of voters support impeachment with 43% opposing and 10% unsure. Democrats support impeachment 79% to 14%, Republicans oppose it 75% to 12% and Independents are almost split evenly with 45% opposing and 44% supporting. There is a divide among the supporters of the top three Democratic candidates on the issue of impeachment as 92% of Sanders supporters and 91% of Warren supporters support impeaching the President, while 74% of Biden supporters are supportive of impeachment. 

Sanders continues to hold a strong lead with voters under 30 years old. In Ohio he captures 52% of this vote, but his numbers drop significantly with older voters. Sanders receives just 4% of the vote among those over 65. Biden has the reverse trend – winning 49% of voters over 65,  but captures only 3% among 18-29 year olds. Warren competes as the alternative choice with all age groups, with no significant variance in her totals across each group.

Sanders is holding onto a majority of his 2016 supporters in Ohio, as 57% still support him. 16% of 2016 Sanders supporters now favor Warren, 10% now support Biden and 8% now support Harris. Biden, on the other hand, holds a strong lead among those who supported Hillary Clinton in 2016. He receives 47% support from Clinton primary voters, followed by Warren with 29%, and Buttigieg, Sanders and Harris with 5%. 

Spencer Kimball, Director of Emerson Polling noted: “There are encouraging signs for Sen. Kamala Harris who is at 7% in this poll, as she gets 26% of the African-American vote, almost equal to Biden and Sanders who both get 27% of the African-American vote.”  Kimball continues, “This finding is in contrast to other states like South Carolina, where Biden has a lock on the African American vote; such is not the case in Ohio.”

President Trump’s approval rating is at 43% with a 51% disapproval in the state, similar to his national Real Clear Politics average. Trump struggles with female voters with 54% disapproving, while among men – 48% disapprove and 46% approve of the President.

Trump’s approval within the Republican party, however, remains very strong as he receives 87% of the vote in a potential Republican primary against his 3 opponents. (n=325, +/-5.4%)

Governor Mike DeWine is also suffering low approval in the Buckeye State, with a 30% approval and 34% disapproval rating. 36% of voters were undecided.

Nearly 1 in 3 voters (33%) identify the economy as the most important issue for voters in the upcoming presidential election. Health care (19%), social issues (14%) and the environment (9%) rounded out the top 5 issues. Among Democratic primary voters, health care is the most important issue (27%), followed by social issues (21%) and the economy (15%). 

Impeachment is ranked 6th out of 9 issues listed with 7% saying it was most important in deciding who they will vote for President.

Biden and Sanders lead Trump 53% to 47% in potential head to head matchups, while Warren leads 52% to 48%. When Vice President Mike Pence replaces Trump in the head to head matchups, he trails Warren and Sanders 51% to 49%, and Biden by 8 points, 54% to 46%. 

Spencer Kimball, Director of Emerson Polling said “at this point, it does not appear that the impeachment issue would significantly impact a Trump candidacy as his numbers are comparable with Pence in the head to head matchups.”

Trump struggles with voters earning under $50,000, getting about 41% of this vote against his Democratic rivals. Trump is tied or leads with income groups making over $50,000.

When voters were asked if they sympathize more with the United Auto Workers or General Motors in terms of the ongoing strike on issues of wages, healthcare and the use of temporary workers, A majority, 56% said they sympathize more with the UAW, while 23% said they sympathize more with General Motors and 21% were unsure. Seventy-six percent (76%) of Democrats and 58% of Independents are more sympathetic towards the Union, while Republicans are more sympathetic towards General Motors, with 41% supporting GM to 33% supporting the UAW.

 

Caller ID

The Ohio Emerson College poll was conducted September 29-Oct 2, 2019 under the Supervision of Emerson Polling Director Assistant Professor Spencer Kimball. The sample consisted of registered voters, n=837, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3.3 percentage points. The data was weighted by gender, age, education, ethnicity and mode based on 2016 turnout modeling. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, party breakdown, ethnicity and region carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using both an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only (n=552) and an online panel provided by Amazon Turk (n=285).

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Warren Surges, Biden Slips, and Sanders Holds, Three Way Dead Heat for the Nomination

The September 2019 Emerson national poll finds former Vice President Joe Biden losing support, now at 25%, down six points from 31% in August. Senator Elizabeth Warren has jumped 8 points, from 15% to 23%, while Senator Bernie Sanders holds his ground only dropping 2 points to 22% from 24%. Entrepreneur Andrew Yang increased his support to 8%, Mayor Pete Buttigieg is at 6%, and Senator Kamala Harris is at 4%. No other candidate polls higher than 2%. (MM, RV, n=462, +/-4.6%, 9/21-23)

Sanders continues to hold an advantage with voters under 50, with 28% support from that group of voters. Conversely, Biden continues to dominate the older vote with 42% support from those age 50 or over. Warren competes with her rivals with both age groups,  as she receives 23% support from those under 50 and 23% support among those 50 and over. 

Among voters who supported Sanders in 2016, 37% still support him, 23% now support Warren, 10% now support Biden and 9% now support Yang.  In contrast, among those who supported Hillary Clinton in 2016, 41% now support Biden, 22% support Warren, 14% support Sanders, and 6% support Harris.

Despite accusations of abuse of power and potential impeachment proceedings, President Trump’s overall approval has hit his highest point since February 2017 with a 48% approval and 47% disapproval – up from August where the President  had an approval rating of 43% and disapproval rating of 52%. In the poll, voters do not support war with Iran, with 66% saying the US should not go to war with Iran, while only 12% support such action.  Professor Spencer Kimball, Director of Emerson Polling, notes, “Perhaps, the President’s increased popularity nationally is a result of his reluctance to translate his administration’s hawkish rhetoric into the belligerent reality of war.”  

Trump also continues to dominate a potential Republican primary with 89% of the vote against his 3 announced opponents, former Gov. Bill Weld, former Rep. Mark Sanford, and former Rep. Joe Walsh (n=363, +/- 5.1%).

Biden appears to have lost support as well in the general election;   he has dropped 7 points in his head-to-head against Trump, now statistically tied at 50% to 49%. Warren’s numbers have improved against Trump, from being tied in the last poll, to a 51% to 49% two point advantage now. Warren polled best among Democrats in this month’s head to head match-ups with Trump. (n=1,019, +/-3%)

 

Issues

The most important issue for voters in deciding their vote for President is the economy at 34%, followed closely by healthcare at 19%. Immigration is at 12%, along with social issues and the environment at 6%.

For Democrats, healthcare is the most important issue at 29%, followed by the economy (18%), and social issues (18%). For Republicans, the economy leads with 48%, followed by immigration (20%). Among Independents, the economy was most important with 38%, followed by healthcare (19%), Immigration (14%), the environment (9%) and social issues (8%).

Voters attitudes toward e-cigarette/vaping use as a public health problem has slightly increased in the last 6 months, with currently 75% of voters say vaping is a somewhat or very serious health problem, up from 73% in Emerson’s March National Poll.

Voters were asked who would they rather have as Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi or Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez:  64% prefer Pelosi as compared to 36% opting for Ocasio-Cortez. Pelosi had greater support from all voters regardless of party affiliation.

Voters do not appear interested in repealing the 22nd amendment, limiting a U.S. president to a maximum of two 4 year terms, with 68% opposed and 17% in support.  Republicans were slightly more open to the idea with 29% support, while only 13% of Democrats and 8% of Independents supported repeal. 

A plurality of voters, 45%, plan to have a flu vaccine shot this winter, as compared to 35% who do not, and  23% who are unsure.

A split half sample was conducted to test the semantics of support for a carbon tax vs. a financial fine for carbon pollution. The questions garnered significantly different results.

When the question was phrased as “Would you support or oppose a carbon tax?” – 35% of voters were in support, 27% were opposed and 38% were unsure. In contrast when the phrasing was “Would you support or oppose a fine on corporations that pollute the air with carbon dioxide?” – 52% of voters supported, 25% opposed, and 24% were unsure.

Professor Spencer Kimball explains:  “this data suggest that the word choice influences voter attitude about a proposed policy. In this case, instead of talking  about a carbon tax, candidates should refer to a financial fine, in order to lead to greater acceptance of the policy; of course, opponents of the policy should describe such action as a tax.” 

 

Caller ID

The September National Emerson College poll was conducted September 21-23, 2019 under the Supervision of Emerson Polling Director Assistant Professor Spencer Kimball. The sample consisted of registered voters, n=1,019, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3 percentage points. The data was weighted by ethnicity, age, mode, gender, region based on 2016 turnout modeling. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, party breakdown, ethnicity and region carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using both an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only (n=667) and an online panel provided by Amazon Turk (n=352).

Full Results

Transparency Initiative

Biden, Sanders, Warren in Statistical Tie in Democratic Primary; Harris Struggles in Home State

The California Democratic Primary is shaping up into a three way race; former VP Biden is tied with Sen. Bernie Sanders at 26% and Sen. Elizabeth Warren is close behind at 20%. A significant drop is seen between this tier and the next group of candidates; entrepreneur Andrew Yang is in fourth at 7%, followed by Sen. Kamala Harris at 6%, former Rep. Beto O’Rourke at 5% and Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 4%. Every other candidate is at 2% or less (MM, RV, n=424, +/- 4.7%, 9/13-16).

The California Democratic Primary will be held on Super Tuesday and Emerson Polling Director Spencer Kimball’s notes that at this point “Senator Kamala Harris is in trouble in her home state. If she is unable to gain momentum in Iowa or New Hampshire, come Super Tuesday she might have a similar fate to Sen. Marco Rubio in 2016, when he was unable to win his home state of Florida and dropped out of the race.”

Driving support for Sanders is younger voters under the age of 50. He leads those voters with 34% of their support, followed by Warren at 18%, Biden at 16% and Yang at 11%. Sanders also has strong support from the Hispanic population of California, leading that group with 36%, followed by Biden with 23%, Warren with 19% and Buttigieg with 7%.

Among voters age 50 or over, Biden leads with 40% support, followed by Warren with 23%, Sanders with 13% and O’Rourke with 8%. 

Among white voters, Warren leads with 29%, followed by Sanders with 20%, Biden with 18% and O’Rourke with 9%. Biden has an enormous lead among African-Americans, as he garners 59% support. No other candidate is within 40 points of Biden among that group. 

Warren’s support is also disproportionately from voters who have at least some college education, as she only receives 1% support from those who have a high school degree or less. 

Sanders and Biden supporters are both more likely to stick with their current choices as 67% and 59% of their respective supporters are planning to definitely vote for their first choice candidate. Only 31% of Warren voters said they will definitely stick with her.

President Trump’s approval in California is at 35% and his disapproval in the state is 59%, well below his national numbers. Additionally, California Governor Gavin Newsom has just a 32% approval rating and a disapproval rating of 42% in the state.

In a potential Republican Primary, Trump wins with 86% of the vote followed by former Rep. Mark Sanford (SC) at 6%, former Rep. Joe Walsh (IL) at 4% and former Governor Bill Weld (MA) also at 4%.

In potential head to head matchups against his top Democratic challengers, Trump trails by significant amounts against all of them. Biden appears to be his strongest opponent, leading the President 64% to 36%. Sanders leads the President 63% to 38% while Harris and Warren each lead by 22 points, 61% to 39%.

The most important issue for voters relative to who they will vote for president is the economy at 26%, followed by health care at 19%, social issues at 13% and the environment at 12%. Among Republicans primary-goers, 54% say the economy is the most important issue in deciding their vote for president, followed by immigration at 18%. Among Democratic primary-goers, health care is the most important issue deciding their vote for president at 25%, followed by the environment at 19% and social issues at 18%. 

Voters are split on California’s status as a sanctuary state, 40% support, 37% oppose, and 23% are undecided. Kimball notes, “if there were to be an issue that creates opportunity for Republicans in the state, the division on sanctuary state status appears to be one of them.” Independents oppose California as a sanctuary state 41% to 33%, which is more in line with Republican voters who oppose 74% to 13% than Democratic voters who support 59% to 16%.

65% of CA voters would prefer Nancy Pelosi over Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez to be Speaker of the House. Among registered Democrats, Pelosi’s support drops to 59% while among Republicans her support grows to 77%. 66% of Independents prefer Pelosi over Ocasio-Cortez. 

A majority of voters, 57%, support the removal of prior marijuana convictions from criminal records while 22% oppose and 21% are undecided. 67% of Democrats support this measure and 57% of Independents support it, while only 37% of Republicans support it. 

A majority of voters, 50%, support AB 5 which gives gig workers for companies like Uber and Lyft to be given full employee status, meaning they would be entitled to holiday and sick pay.  24% of voters oppose the bill and 27% are undecided. There is also a partisan divide on this issue, as 60% of Democrats are in support opposed to just 33% of Republicans and 47% of Independents. 

A plurality of voters, 44%, support SB206, also known as the Fair to Play Act, which would allow college athletes to profit off of their own name, image or likeness. 23% oppose the legislation and 33% were unsure. 51% of Democrats are in support, compared to 30% of Republicans and 44% of Independents. 

 

Caller ID

The California Emerson College poll was conducted September 13-16, 2019 under the Supervision of Emerson Polling Director Assistant Professor Spencer Kimball. The sample consisted of registered voters, n=830, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3.3 percentage points. The data was weighted by gender, age, education, party, ethnicity and mode based on 2016 turnout modeling. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, party breakdown, ethnicity and region carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using both an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only (n=498) and an online panel provided by Amazon Turk (n=332).

Full Results

California TI

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