Nevada 2020: Sanders with Comfortable Lead Heading into Caucus, Tight Race for Second Place

A new Emerson College/8 News Now Poll of Nevada Democratic Caucus voters finds Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders leading the field by 13 points with 30% support. Former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg is at 17%, which is a virtual dead heat with former VP Joe Biden who is at 16%. Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren is at 12%, Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar is at 11%, Businessman Tom Steyer is at 10% and Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard is at 2%.

Since the last Emerson College poll of Nevada in early November, Sanders has gained 11 points, Buttigieg has moved up 12 points, Biden is down 14 points, Warren fell 10 points. Klobuchar and Steyer both moved into double digits, gaining 10 and 7 points respectively.

The key to Sanders lead appears to be his popularity among younger voters. He has a majority of support from voters under 50 with 50%. Next among those voters is Buttigieg at 11%, followed by Steyer, Klobuchar and Warren at 10%. Among voters 50 and over, Biden leads with 24% support, followed by Buttigieg at 22%, Sanders at 16%, Warren at 14%, and Klobuchar at 12%.

Sanders also leads among white voters with 28% support. Following him among those voters is Warren at 18%, Buttigieg at 17%, Biden at 14%, and Klobuchar at 12%. Sanders is stronger among non-white voters with 34% support. Biden is next among non-white voters at 19%, followed by Buttigieg at 17%, Steyer at 12%, and Klobuchar at 9%.

Among respondents who supported Hillary Clinton in the 2016 caucus, Biden leads with 26%, followed by Buttigieg with 22%, Steyer with 16%, Klobuchar with 14%, Sanders with 11% and Warren with 10%. And among 2016 Sanders supporters, 57% still support him, 12% support Warren, 10% support Buttigieg and 9% support Biden.

The majority of respondents said they will definitely vote for their chosen candidate (62%), whereas 37% say there is still a chance they could change their mind and vote for someone else. Biden supporters are most set in their candidate: 78% say they will definitely vote for him, followed by 72% of committed Warren supporters, and 72% of Sanders supporters. The majority of Klobuchar, Buttigieg and Steyer supporters say there is a chance they could change their mind and vote for someone else: 75% of Klobuchar supporters, 53% of Buttigieg supporters, and 56% of Steyer supporters say they could change their mind.

Nevada Gov. Steve Sisolak job approval among Democratic caucus goers is at 57% approve, 13% disapprove and 30% unsure.

A strong majority of respondents (75%), are in favor of an amendment to the Nevada state constitution that would recognize marriage as between couples regardless of gender. Just 12% oppose that amendment and 13% are neutral.

When it comes to the most important issue while deciding for whom they will for president, health care was the most popular choice at 28%, followed by the environment at 24%, and then the economy at 20%.

Nevadans were also asked their opinion on water usage in the southern portion of the state. 71% of respondents said that there needs to be more water conservation while 29% said that there does not need to be more conservation.

 

Caller ID

The Nevada Emerson College/ 8 News Now poll was conducted February 19-February 20, 2020. The sample for the Democratic Caucus consisted of registered Democratic, Independent and Republican likely voters, n=425, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 4.7 percentage points. The data sets were weighted based on gender, age, ethnicity, party, education, region, and based on 2016 turnout model. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, party breakdown, ethnicity and region carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only (n=224), cell phones (n=140) and online panels provided by MTurk (n=60).

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February National Poll: Sanders Takes the Lead for Democratic Nomination, Bloomberg on the Rise

A new Emerson College National Poll finds Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders taking the lead, now at 29% support. Falling to second is former VP Joe Biden at 22%, followed by former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg at 14%, Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren at 12%, former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 8%, Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar at 6%, Hawaii Representative Tulsi Gabbard at 4%, and Businessman Tom Steyer at 3%.

 

Spencer Kimball, Director of Emerson College Polling finds “Sanders continues to build upon his base and has solidified his position as the frontrunner. Biden has lost support, especially among African-Americans, which now opens the door for Bloomberg, maybe Buttigieg or even Klobuchar to win over the moderate voter and become the alternative to Sanders going into Super Tuesday.”

Since the previous national poll in January, Sanders, Buttigeg and Klobuchar gained two points, Biden has fallen eight points, Bloomberg moved up seven points, and Warren lost one point.

Sanders continues to draw his base of support from younger voters as he garners 39% support among voters under 50. Following him in that group is Biden at 16%, Warren at 15%, and Bloomberg at 9%. Among voters 50 and over, Biden leads with 31% support, followed by Bloomberg at 20%, Sanders at 15%, Klobuchar at 9%, and Buttigieg at 8%.

Among white voters, Sanders leads with 35% support, followed by Biden at 17%, Bloomberg at 11%, Warren and Buttigieg at 10% and Klobuchar at 9%. Among non-white voters, Biden leads with 28%, followed by Sanders with 22%, Bloomberg with 16%, and Warren with 12%. Buttigieg is at 6% and Klobuchar is at 2% among non-white voters.

Sanders has a commanding lead with “very liberal” voters at 58% support, followed by Warren at 20%, and no other candidate is in double digits with those voters. Sanders holds a smaller lead among “somewhat liberal” voters with 29% support, followed by Biden at 18%, Warren at 16%, and Bloomberg at 14%. And among “moderate” or “conservative” voters, Biden leads with 30%, followed by Sanders and Bloomberg at 17%, and Buttigieg at 9%.

Overall, 52% of Democratic primary voters said they will definitely vote for their preferred candidate, 48% said they could still change their minds. Sanders supporters are the most committed at 67%. Looking at the other top candidates, 60% of Biden supporters, 51% of Warren supporters, 49% of Bloomberg supporters, 45% of Klobuchar supporters and 26% of Buttigieg supporters are committed to their respective candidates.

When asked whether they will support the Democratic nominee in the general election even if their preferred candidate does not get the nomination, 79% of Democratic primary voters said yes, 8% said no, and 13% said it depends on who the nominee is.

Respondents were also asked who they think will be the nominee, regardless of who they support. Sanders also lead in this question with 33%, followed by Biden with 22%, Bloomberg with 16%, Buttigieg with 8%, Klobuchar with 6% and Warren with 5%.

Democratic primary voters are split on which candidate would be the best to debate President Trump. Twenty-five percent (25%) said Sanders would be the best, followed by Biden at 23%, Bloomberg at 17% and Warren at 14%, the only candidates in double figures.

Democratic primary voters are also split on who they see as the best pick for Vice President with California Senator Kamala Harris as the top choice among 20% of Democratic primary voters, Entrepreneur Andrew Yang followed at 18% and Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was third at 16%. Stacey Abrams was picked by 8% of respondents, Former Rep. Beto O’Rourke got 6%, Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown received 5%, Andrew Gillum was chosen by 3% and Rep. Ilhan Omar was selected by 1% of respondents. A plurality of voters, 23%, said they would like to see someone other than the eight candidates listed in the question to be Vice President.

Among Sanders supporters, 31% said Yang would be the best pick for Vice President, 13% said Harris, 13% said Clinton; 23% said someone else. Among Biden supporters, 24% said Clinton would be the best pick for VP, 23% said Harris, 13% said Yang, and 14% said someone else. Among Bloomberg supporters, 22% picked Clinton, 19% picked Harris, 8% picked Yang and 35% said someone else. And among Warren supporters, 27% chose Harris, 14% chose Yang and Abrams, 9% chose Clinton and 17% chose someone else.

President Trump’s job performance rating of +4 points is the highest it has been since he took office. This month’s poll finds him at 48% approval and 44% disapproval, up from last month’s 47% approval and 48% disapproval. Emerson College Polling found Trump at 48% approval in December 2019, November 2019, and February 2017 as well but his disapproval numbers are lower now than they’ve ever been before. It also appears that there is no appetite within the GOP for a different nominee, as 91% said they would vote for Trump for the nomination in 2020.

In potential head-to-head match-ups, Trump leads 4 of his 5 democratic rivals, trailing only against Sanders 51% to 49%. The President leads Biden 52% to 48% and leads Bloomberg, Buttigieg, and Klobuchar 51% to 49%.

 

There is a significant gender divide in head to head matchups against the President; in all head to head matchups against the President, men break for Trump and women break for the Democratic nominee. Trump leads Biden 58%-42% among men whereas Biden leads 54%-46% among women. Against Sanders, Trump leads 55%-45% among men and Sanders leads 56%-45% among women. Against Klobuchar, Trump leads 57% to 43% among men and Klobuchar leads 55% to 45% among women. Against Bloomberg, Trump leads 58% to 42% among men whereas Bloomberg leads 55% to 45% among women. Against Buttigieg, Trump leads 57% to 43% among men and Buttigieg leads 55% to 45% among women.

Respondents were also asked whether they think there should be a single national primary day or if the current nominating system should stay the same. A majority, 60%, said that it should stay the same and 40% said there should be a national primary. There is a party divide on this question, as 48% of Democrats want a national primary compared to 28% of Republicans and 43% of Independents.

Overall, 42% of voters trust the current democratic nominating process while 37% are untrusting, 21% were unsure. Breakdown by party reveals that 49% of Democrats trust the current democratic nominating process, 29% find it untrustworthy, and 22% were unsure. For Republicans, 41% trust the current democratic nominating process, 44% find it untrustworthy, and 16% were unsure. And among Independents, 34% trust the current democratic nominating process, 40% find it untrustworthy, and 26% were unsure.

Voters seem to have moved on the issue of Billionaire Jeffrey Epstein’s death over the summer with 46% now saying he was murdered, 21% saying he committed suicide and 33% unsure. This is a significant shift from August 2019 when 34% believed he was murdered, 33% believed he committed suicide, and 32% were unsure. Looking within the top Democratic candidates’ supporters’, 55% of Sanders supporters think he was murdered compared to 40% of Bloomberg supporters, 33% of Biden supporters and 20% of Warren supporters. And among voters who supported President Trump in 2016, 56% believe that he was murdered.

A slight majority, 53%, said they would take a vaccine for Coronavirus if it existed while 19% said they would not and 28% were unsure. About a third of voters, 33% said the federal government should have the surgeon general announce a warning, put in travel restrictions, and create mandatory quarantines and vaccines. Nearly 26% said just a travel restriction would be enough, 17% said the Surgeon General Announcement/guidance would be appropriate. Twelve-percent (12%) would like mandatory quarantines while 6% would like mandatory vaccines. About 7% said none of these actions should be taken.

The most important issue for voters is the economy at 29%, followed by healthcare at 20%. Social issues came in third at 12%, the Environment was at 9% and Immigration rounded out the top 5 at 8%.

Caller ID:

The National Emerson College poll was conducted February 16-18, 2020 under the supervision of Assistant Professor Spencer Kimball. The sample consisted of registered voters, n=1,250, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 2.7 percentage points. The data was weighted based on 2016 voter model of gender, education, age, mode, party registration, ethnicity, and region. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, party breakdown, ethnicity and region carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using both an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only (n= 772) and an online panel provided by Amazon Turk (n= 478).

 

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New Hampshire 2020 Tracking Poll Night 8: Sanders Heads Into Primary With Lead, Buttigieg Within Margin of Error

The final 7 News/ Emerson College tracking poll of the New Hampshire Democratic Primary finds Sen. Bernie Sanders holding his lead in the Democratic Primary with 30%, followed by fmr. Mayor Pete Buttigieg with 23%, Sen. Amy Klobuchar with 14%, Sen. Elizabeth Warren with 11%, and fmr. V.P. Joe Biden with 10%. No other candidate is above 4%. Data was collected February 8-9, 2020, mixed mode, n=500, margin of error of +/- 4.3%.

Since yesterday, Sanders has held his support, Buttigieg has gained three points, Klobuchar has gained one point, and Warren and Biden have lost one point.

Spencer Kimball, Director of Emerson College Polling, explains the state of the race in New Hampshire: “While Sanders has a lead going into the election, Buttigieg has closed the gap and could still pull off a New Hampshire surprise, as he and Sanders are within the margin of error. Klobuchar continues to move up, but she still trails the top two candidates by a significant margin. Warren and Biden could still get as high as third but today’s data had them going in the wrong direction. ”

Respondents were asked if they would definitely vote for their preferred candidate or if there was a chance they could change their mind. Overall 69% said they will definitely vote for their candidate and 31% said that they could still change their minds. Sanders’ supporters are the most committed as 85% said they will definitely vote for him. Of the other top candidates, 68% of Warren supporters, 66% of Klobuchar supporters, 65% of Biden supporters, and 59% of Buttigieg supporters are committed to their respective candidates.

Continuing the trend found throughout this tracking poll, Sanders pulls very strong support from younger voters. Among voters under 50 years old, he leads with 42% support followed by Buttigieg with 24%, and Warren with 11%. Among voters 50 and over, Buttigieg leads at 23%, followed by Klobuchar at 22%, Sanders at 19%, Biden at 15% and Warren at 10%.

Sanders holds a strong lead among “very liberal” voters garnering 54% support among that group. Following Sanders among those very liberal voters is Warren at 21%, and no other candidate is in double digits. Among “somewhat liberal” voters, Sanders also leads with 32% followed by Buttigieg with 29%, Klobuchar with 14% and Warren with 10%. And among “moderate” or “conservative” voters, Buttigieg holds the lead with 28% support. Following him among those voters is Klobuchar with 20%, Biden with 15% and Sanders with 14%.

In the first congressional district, 35% of voters support Sanders, followed by Buttigieg with 20%, Klobuchar with 13% and Biden and Warren 9%. In the second district, 27% of voters support Buttigieg, 25% support Sanders, 15% support Klobuchar, 12% support Warren, and 11% support Biden.

Voters were asked again to pick a candidate, regardless of who they are going to vote for, who they expect to be the Democratic nominee. Sanders led this question with 44%, followed by Buttigieg with 16%, Biden with 14%, Klobuchar at 9%, Bloomberg at 8%, and Warren at 6%. Since yesterday, Sanders, Buttigieg, Warren, and Bloomberg have stayed the same, Klobuchar increased two points and Biden decreased one point.

For the questions of the day, respondents were asked if they think the winner of the Democratic primary will also win the White House, 85% said yes and 15% said no. They were also asked if they think the Democratic party is headed in the right or wrong direction, 76% said the right direction and 24% said the wrong direction. And a majority of respondents (53%) said that they think Nancy Pelosi is more aligned with the values of the Democratic party, 22% said AOC is more aligned, 11% said neither and 14% were unsure.

Those voting in the Republican primary in New Hampshire were also polled; 84% plan to vote for President Trump, compared to 16% who are voting for former Massachusetts governor Bill Weld.

 

Caller ID

The New Hampshire 7 News/ Emerson College poll was conducted February 8-February 9, 2020. The sample for the Democratic Primary consisted of registered Democratic and Independent likely voters, n=500, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 4.3 percentage points. The sample for the Republican primary consisted of registered Republican and Independent likely voters, n=500, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 4.3 percentage points. The data sets were weighted based on gender, age, party, education, region, and based on 2016 turnout model. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, party breakdown, ethnicity and region carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only (n=257), cell phones (n=192) and online panels provided by MTurk (n=51).

 

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New Hampshire 2020 Tracking Poll Night 7: Debate Shifts Momentum for Candidates but Sanders Stays In Strong Position

Day 7 of the 7 News/ Emerson College tracking poll of the New Hampshire Democratic Primary finds Sen. Bernie Sanders holding his lead in the Democratic Primary with 30%, followed by fmr. Mayor Pete Buttigieg with 20%, Sen. Amy Klobuchar with 13%, Sen. Elizabeth Warren with 12%, and fmr. V.P. Joe Biden with 11%. No other candidate is above 4%. Data was collected February 7-8, 2020, mixed mode, n=500, margin of error of +/- 4.3%.

Since yesterday, Sanders has lost one point, Buttigieg has lost four points, Klobuchar has gained four points, Warren has gained one point, and Biden has held his support.

Spencer Kimball, Director of Emerson College Polling, explains the changes: “Both Sanders and Buttigieg received a bounce in our poll numbers since Iowa, but it looks like the debate on Friday may have stymied momentum for the front runners. The candidate who seems to have been able to take advantage of the event is Klobuchar who gained four points.”

Respondents were asked if they would definitely vote for their preferred candidate or if there was a chance they could change their mind. Overall, 66% said they will definitely vote for their candidate and 34% said they could still change their mind. Sanders’ supporters are the most committed as 88% said they will definitely vote for him. Of the other top candidates, 64% of Warren supporters, 62% of Biden supporters, 56% of Klobuchar and 54% of Buttigieg supporters are committed to their respective candidates.

Continuing the trend found in the past Emerson College tracking polls, Sanders pulls very strong support from younger voters. Among voters under 50 years old, he leads with 44% support followed by Buttigieg with 17%, and Warren with 13%. Among voters 50 and over, Buttigieg leads at 23% (an eight point drop from yesterday), followed by Sanders and Klobuchar at 19%, Biden at 16% and Warren at 11%.

Sanders holds a strong lead among “very liberal” voters garnering 53% support among that group. Following Sanders among those very liberal voters is Warren at 24%, and no other candidate is in double digits. Among “somewhat liberal” voters, Sanders also leads with 37% followed by Buttigieg with 22%, Klobuchar with 12% and Warren with 11%. And among “moderate” or “conservative” voters, Buttigieg holds the lead with 26% support. Following him among those voters is Klobuchar with 17%, Biden with 15% and Sanders with 14%.

In the first congressional district, 37% of voters support Sanders, followed by Buttigieg with 14%, Klobuchar with 13% and Biden and Warren with 11%. In the second district, 26% of voters support Buttigieg, 24% support Sanders, 14% support Klobuchar, 12% support Warren, and 11% support Biden.

Voters were asked again to pick a candidate, regardless of who they are going to vote for, who they expect to be the Democratic nominee. Sanders led this question with 45%, followed by Buttigieg and Biden at 16%, Bloomberg at 8% and Klobuchar at 7%. Since yesterday, Biden and Buttigieg decreased on this question by three points, Sanders has gained two points, Bloomberg gained one point and Klobuchar gained two.

For the questions of the day, voters were asked how important they think experience in Washington DC is for a presidential candidate, 74% said it was somewhat or very important, 13% were neutral, and 13% said it was not very important or not important at all. Voters were also asked if they think this will be the last time New Hampshire holds the first primary in the nation. The majority of New Hampshire voters think they will continue to have the first in the nation primary (68%), and 8% said they think it will be the last time, while 24% were unsure.

 

Caller ID

The New Hampshire 7 News/ Emerson College poll was conducted February 7-February 8, 2020. The sample consisted of registered Democratic and Independent likely voters, n=500, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 4.3 percentage points. The data was weighted based on gender, age, party, education, region, and based on 2016 turnout model. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, party breakdown, ethnicity and region carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only (n=331), cell phones (n=147) and online panels provided by MTurk (n=42).

 

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New Hampshire 2020 Tracking Poll Night 6: Sanders Continues to Lead as Buttigieg Inches Closer

Day 6 of the 7 News/ Emerson College tracking poll of the New Hampshire Democratic Primary finds Sen. Bernie Sanders holding his lead in the Democratic Primary with 31%, followed by fmr. Mayor Pete Buttigieg with 24%, Sen. Elizabeth Warren and fmr. V.P. Joe Biden with 11%, and Sen. Amy Klobuchar with 9%. No other candidate is above 5%. Data was collected February 6-7, 2020, mixed mode, n=500, margin of error of +/- 4.3%.

Since yesterday, Sanders has lost one point, Buttigieg has gained one point (an overall 11 point increase since Emerson College’s first New Hampshire Tracking poll five days ago), Warren has lost two points, and Biden and Klobuchar have held their support.

Respondents were asked if they would definitely vote for their preferred candidate or if there was a chance they could change their mind. Overall 63% said they will definitely vote for their candidate and Sanders’ supporters are the most committed as 90% said they will definitely vote for him. Of the other top candidates, 64% of Biden supporters, 63% of Warren supporters, and 47% of Buttigieg supporters are committed to their respective candidates.

Spencer Kimball, Director of Emerson College Polling explains, “many voters are still on the fence on who they will support but that does not include Sanders supporters, which means that the other candidates won’t be able to pull any of his vote which leaves them fighting amongst themselves”.

Continuing the trend found in the past Emerson College tracking polls, Sanders pulls very strong support from younger voters. Among voters under 50 years old, he leads with 44% support followed by Buttigieg with 17%, and Warren with 13%. Among voters 50 and over, Buttigieg leads at 31%, followed by Sanders at 20%, Biden at 17% and Warren at 14%.

Sanders holds a strong lead among “very liberal” voters garnering 51% support among that group. Following Sanders among those very liberal voters is Warren at 24%, and Buttigieg at 12%. Among “somewhat liberal” voters, Sanders also leads with 43% followed by Buttigieg with 22%, Warren with 11% and Biden with 9%. And among “moderate” or “conservative” voters, Buttigieg holds the lead with 29% support. Following him among those voters is Biden with 15%, Sanders with 14% and Klobuchar with 13%.

In the first congressional district, 36% of voters support Sanders, followed by Buttigieg with 21%, Biden with 12%, and Warren with 11%. In the second district, 26% of voters support Sanders and Buttigieg, 12% support Warren, and 11% support Biden.

Voters were asked again to pick a candidate, regardless of who they are going to vote for, who they expect to be the Democratic nominee. Sanders led this question with 42%, followed by Buttigieg and Biden at 19% and Bloomberg at 7%. Since yesterday, Biden has decreased on this question by three points, Sanders has gained one point, Buttigieg held his support and Bloomberg gained three points.

For the questions of the day, voters were asked if they are more or less enthusiastic to vote in this primary compared to previous primaries. A majority (62%) said that they are more enthusiastic, 13% said they are less enthusiastic and 25% said they feel about the same level of enthusiasm.

Additionally, respondents were asked whether having a woman on the presidential ticket would make them more or less likely to support that ticket. Twenty-six percent (26%) said it would make them more likely, 3% said it would make them less likely and 71% said that it would not matter to them. They were asked the same question in regards to having an African-American or Hispanic candidate on the ticket. Fourteen percent (14%) said that would make them more likely, 4% said it would make them less likely, and 82% said that it would not matter.

 

Caller ID

The New Hampshire 7 News/ Emerson College poll was conducted February 6-February 7, 2020. The sample consisted of registered Democratic and Independent likely voters, n=500, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 4.3 percentage points. The data was weighted based on gender, age, education, region, and based on 2016 turnout model. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, party breakdown, ethnicity and region carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only (n=332), cell phones (n=99) and online panels provided by MTurk (n=68).

 

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New Hampshire 2020 Tracking Poll Night 5: Sanders Holds Lead in New Hampshire, Buttigieg Continues to Gain

Day 5 of the 7 News/ Emerson College tracking poll of the New Hampshire Democratic Primary finds Sen. Bernie Sanders maintaining his lead in the Democratic Primary with 32%, followed by fmr. Mayor Pete Buttigieg with 23%, up two points since yesterday’s tracking poll, Sen. Elizabeth Warren with 13%, fmr. V.P. Joe Biden with 11%, and Sen. Amy Klobuchar with 9%.

Since yesterday, Sanders has gained one point, Buttigieg has gained two points (an overall ten-point increase since Emerson College’s first New Hampshire Tracking poll four days ago), Warren has gained one point, Biden has lost another point, and Klobuchar has lost two points, putting her below 10%.

Spencer Kimball, Director of Emerson College Polling explains, “This is beginning to turn into a two-person race in New Hampshire between Bernie Sanders and Pete Buttigieg. All eyes will be on Warren, Biden, and Klobuchar at the debate on Friday night to see if any of them can create a game-changing moment for their campaigns.”

Continuing the trend found in the past Emerson College tracking polls, Sanders pulls very strong support from younger voters. Among voters under 50 years old, he leads with 44% support followed by Buttigieg with 17%, and Warren with 13%. Among voters 50 and over, Buttigieg leads at 31%, followed by Sanders at 20%, Biden at 17% and Warren at 14%.

Voters were asked again to pick a candidate, regardless of who they are going to vote for, who they expect to be the Democratic nominee. Sanders led this question with 41%, followed by Biden at 21%, and Buttigieg at 18%. Since yesterday, Biden has decreased on this question by five points and Buttigieg has decreased by one point.

Sanders holds a strong lead among “very liberal” voters garnering 46% support among that group. Following Sanders among those very liberal voters is Warren at 32%, and Buttigieg at 11%. Among “somewhat liberal” voters, Sanders also leads with 43% followed by Buttigieg with 20%, Warren with 12% and Biden with 11%. And among “moderate” or “conservative” voters, Buttigieg holds the lead with 31% support. Following him among those voters is Sanders with 16%, Biden with 13%, and Klobuchar with 12%.

In the first district, 37% of voters support Sanders, followed by Buttigieg with 24%. In the second district, 26% of voters support Bernie Sanders, 22% support Buttigieg, and 16% support Warren.

For the questions of the day, voters were asked about the motivation of Senator Mitt Romney’s decision to vote to convict President Trump: if it was out of personal conviction or a political calculation. The majority of Democratic Primary Voters (64%) said it was out of personal conviction, 21% thought it was a political calculation, and 15% were unsure. Voters were also asked if the handling of the impeachment matter by the House and Senate Democrats made them more or less likely to vote for Democratic candidates in the year 2020. The plurality of New Hampshire Democrats (48%) said it made them more likely to vote for Democrats, 14% said it made them less likely to vote for Democrats, and 38% said it had no effect.

Caller ID

The New Hampshire 7 News/ Emerson College poll was conducted February 5-February 6, 2020. The sample consisted of registered Democratic and Independent likely voters, n=500, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 4.3 percentage points. The data was weighted based on gender, age, education, region, and based on 2016 turnout model. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, party breakdown, ethnicity and region carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only (n=318), cell phones (n=119) and online panels provided by MTurk (n=62).

Results

 

New Hampshire 2020 Tracking Poll Night 4: Buttigieg Continues to Gain on Sanders

Day 4 of the 7 News/ Emerson College tracking poll of the New Hampshire Democratic Primary finds former Mayor Pete Buttigieg’s support growing even higher as he is now at 21% in the Granite State. That places him in second place behind the frontrunner, Senator Bernie Sanders, who is at 31% support. Former VP Joe Biden and Senator Elizabeth Warren follow with 12% and Senator Amy Klobuchar is the only other candidate to reach double digits at 11%. Data was collected February 3-5, 2020, n=500, margin of error +/- 4.3%.

Since yesterday, Sanders and Biden have lost a point, Warren has gained one, Klobuchar has held her support and Buttigieg has jumped up four points. That makes it a nine-point increase for Buttigieg in the past two days.

Continuing the trend found in the first few days of the 7 News/Emerson College tracking poll, Sanders pulls very strong support from younger voters. Among voters under 50 years old, he leads with 43%, followed by Buttigieg with 15%, and Warren and Klobuchar with 12%. Among voters 50 and over, Buttigieg leads with 27% support, followed by Sanders with 21%, Biden with 19% and Klobuchar and Warren with 11%.

Sanders holds a strong lead among “very liberal” voters garnering 55% support among that group. Following him among those voters is Warren with 21% and Buttigieg with 9%. Among “somewhat liberal” voters, Sanders also leads with 35% support followed by Buttigieg with 19%, Klobuchar with 16% and Warren with 15%. And among “moderate” or “conservative” voters, Buttigieg has taken the lead with 30% support. Following him among those voters is Biden with 19%, Sanders with 16%, and Klobuchar with 13%.

Sanders leads both congressional districts: in the first district, 36% of voters support him, followed by Buttigieg with 22% and Biden with 12%. In the second district, Sanders has a smaller lead with 27% support, followed by Buttigieg with 21%, Warren with 14%, and Biden and Klobuchar with 13%.

For the 7 News/Emerson College Polling questions of the day, voters were asked about two moments from President Trump’s State of the Union yesterday evening. When asked if it was appropriate for Trump to not shake the hand of Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, 72% said it was inappropriate, 13% said it was appropriate, and 13% were undecided. When asked about the appropriateness of Pelosi choosing to rip up a copy of Trump’s speech, voters were more split. 43% said it was inappropriate, 43% said appropriate, and 14% were undecided.

Voters were asked again regardless of who they support, who they think will be the eventual Democratic nominee. Sanders led this question with 41%, followed by Biden at 26%, and Buttigieg at 19%. Since yesterday, Biden has decreased 6 points on this question, and Buttigieg has increased 9 points.

Caller ID

The New Hampshire Emerson College poll was conducted February 3-February 5, 2020. The sample consisted of registered Democratic and Independent voters, n=500, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 4.3 percentage points. The data was weighted based on gender, age, education, region, and based on 2016 turnout model. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, party breakdown, ethnicity, and region carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only (n=315), cell phones (n=73) and online panels provided by MTurk (n=112).

 

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New Hampshire 2020 Tracking Poll Night 3: Buttigieg Gets An Iowa Bounce, Sanders Maintains Strong Lead

Day 3 of the 7 News/ Emerson College tracking poll of the New Hampshire Democratic Primary finds former Mayor Pete Buttigieg with a bounce out of Iowa as his numbers increased from 12% on Monday to 17%. This separates him from the field and places him in second behind the frontrunner, Senator Bernie Sanders, whose numbers held at 32%. Former VP Joe Biden comes in third at 13%, followed by Senator Amy Klobuchar at 11%, and Senator Elizabeth Warren at 11%. No other candidate reached double digits. Data was collected February 2-4, 2020, but today’s data was collected after the Iowa Democratic Party announced the partial results of the Iowa caucus mixed mode, n=500, margin of error +/- 4.3%.

 

Since yesterday, Sanders and Biden have held their support, Buttigieg has gained 5%, Warren has lost 2%, and Klobuchar has lost 1%.

Spencer Kimball, Director of Emerson College Polling explains that “Bernie may have gotten his bounce yesterday as his Iowa poll numbers made him a front runner and his New Hampshire numbers increased from 29% to 32% between day 1 and 2 of the track, but with the news today of Pete’s Iowa performance he saw his own 5 point bounce between day 2 and 3.”

Continuing the trend found in the first Emerson College tracking poll, Sanders pulls very strong support from younger voters. Among voters under 50 years old, he leads with 42%, followed by Buttigieg with 11%, and Warren and Gabbard with 10%. Among voters 50 and over, Sanders holds a smaller lead with 23% support, followed by Buttigieg with 21%, Biden with 20% and Klobuchar with 13%.

Sanders holds a strong lead among “very liberal” voters garnering 54% support among that group. Following him among those voters is Warren with 19% and Buttigieg with 11%. Among “somewhat liberal” voters, Sanders leads with 35% support followed by Buttigieg with 19%, Warren with 14% and Klobuchar with 13%. And among “moderate” or “conservative” voters, Sanders and Biden lead with 20% support, followed by Buttigieg at 18%, and Klobuchar at 14%.

Sanders leads both congressional districts; in the first district 31% of voters support him, followed by Buttigieg with 16% and Warren with 14%. In the second district, Sanders has a larger lead with 34% support, followed by Buttigieg with 17%, and Biden with 13%.

Voters were also asked to pick the candidate they believe will become the eventual nominee. A plurality (42%) of voters chose Sanders, followed by 32% who chose Biden. Ten-percent (10%) of voters indicated they believed Buttigieg would be the nominee, a slight increase from 7% who chose Buttigieg in yesterday’s poll. Since the beginning of the New Hampshire tracking poll, Biden has moved down seven points in the expected nominee question from 39% to 32%.

The majority of voters, 54% said the most important factor is to select a nominee with the best chance to defeat Donald Trump, in contrast to 46% who select a candidate who is closer to their views on issues.

Caller ID

The New Hampshire Emerson College poll was conducted February 2-February 4, 2020. All data for February 4 was collected between 6pm-8pm EST, after the Iowa Democratic Party announced the partial results of the Iowa caucus. The sample consisted of registered Democratic and Independent voters, n=500, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 4.3 percentage points. The data was weighted based on gender, age, education, region, and based on 2016 turnout model. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, party breakdown, ethnicity and region carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only (n=370) and online panels provided by Dynata and MTurk (n=130).

 

Full Results

New Hampshire 2020 Tracking Poll Night 2: Sanders Lead Extends Further

The second of a continuous eight day 7 News/ Emerson College Polling tracking poll of New Hampshire Democratic Voters finds Senator Bernie Sanders with a commanding lead in the Granite State at 32% support. Former VP Joe Biden and Senator Elizabeth Warren are next with 13%, following them is Senator Amy Klobuchar and Former Mayor Pete Buttigieg with 12%. No other candidate reached double digits. Data was collected February 1-3, 2020, mixed mode, n=500, margin of error +/- 4.3%.

This represents a shift from the previous Emerson College poll of New Hampshire from yesterday, as Sanders gained three points, Biden and Buttigieg lost one point, Warren gained one point, and Klobuchar gained four points.

Continuing the trend found in the first Emerson College tracking poll, Sanders pulls very strong support from younger voters. Among voters under 50 years old, he leads with 40% support and is followed by Warren with 15%, Klobuchar with 10% and Buttigieg with 9%. Among voters 50 and over, Sanders leads with 23%, followed by Biden with 18%, and Buttigieg and Klobuchar with 15%.

Sanders holds a strong lead among “very liberal” voters with 51% support, followed by Warren with 32% and Buttigieg with 10%. Among “somewhat liberal” voters, Sanders also leads with 30% support, followed by Buttigieg and Klobuchar with 15% and Warren with 12%. In a departure from previous Emerson College polls, Sanders also leads among “moderate” and “conservative,” voters, receiving 23% support among that group. Following Sanders is Biden with 19%, Klobuchar with 14% and Buttigieg with 12%.

Within congressional districts, Sanders leads in the first district with 26%, followed by Warren with 18%, Klobuchar with 14%, Buttigieg with 13% and Biden with 12%. In the second district, Sanders is at 37%, followed by Biden with 13%, Buttigieg with 12%, and Klobuchar with 11%.

Voters were also asked to pick the candidate they believe will become the eventual nominee. Most were split between Biden and Sanders; 41% picked Sanders and 33% selected Biden. No other candidate is higher than 7% in this question.

The majority of voters, 54% said the most important factor is to select a nominee with the best chance to defeat Donald Trump, in contrast to 46% who select a candidate who is closer to their views on issues.

The majority (87%) of New Hampshire Primary voters say the events of Monday’s Iowa Caucus will not have an impact on their vote, while 13% say the results of the Caucus will impact who they vote for.

 

Caller ID

The New Hampshire Emerson College poll was conducted February 1-February 3, 2020. The sample consisted of registered Democratic and Independent voters, n=500, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 4.3 percentage points. The data was weighted based on gender, age, education, region, and based on 2016 turnout model. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, party breakdown, ethnicity and region carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced.

Full Results

New Hampshire 2020 Tracking Poll Night 1: Sanders Opens Commanding Lead

The first of a continuous eight-day 7 News/ Emerson College Polling tracking poll of New Hampshire Democratic Voters finds Senator Bernie Sanders with a commanding lead in the Granite State at 29% support. Former VP Joe Biden follows the Senator with 14%, followed by former Mayor Pete Buttigieg with 13%, and Senator Elizabeth Warren with 12%. No other candidate reached double digits. Data was collected from January 31 – February 2, 2020, mixed-mode, n=500, margin of error +/- 4.3%.

This represents a shift from the previous Emerson College poll of New Hampshire, as Sanders has increased his lead over the other candidates by ten points. Since mid-January, Sanders has gained six points, Biden has maintained his support level, Buttigieg has dropped five points, and Warren has lost two.

Continuing the trend found in other Emerson College polls, Sanders pulls very strong support from younger voters. Among voters under 50 years old, he leads with 38% support and is followed by Warren with 13%, Buttigieg with 11%, Gabbard with 10% and Yang with 9%. In contrast among voters 50 and over, Biden leads with 24%, followed by Sanders with 20%, Buttigieg with 15%, and Klobuchar with 12%.

Sanders holds a strong lead among “very liberal” voters with 39% support, followed by Warren with 27% and Buttigieg and Gabbard with 10%. Among “somewhat liberal” voters, Sanders also leads with 36% support, followed by Biden with 19% and Buttigieg with 14%. In a departure from previous Emerson College polls, Sanders also leads among “moderate” and “conservative,” voters, receiving 20% support among that group. Following Sanders is Biden with 19%, Buttigieg with 13% and Klobuchar with 12%.

Looking at gender, Sanders does 11 points better among women than among men, with 34% and 23% support respectively. The inverse is true of Yang and Gabbard, as they both garner 3% support among women; Yang receives 11% and Gabbard receives 12% support from men.

Within congressional districts, Sanders leads in the first district with 26%, followed by Warren with 15%, Biden and Buttigieg with 12% and Klobuchar with 10%. In the second district, Sanders is at 32%, followed by Biden with 17%, Buttigieg with 14%, and Yang with 9%.

Voters were also asked to pick the candidate they believe will become the eventual nominee. Most were split between Biden and Sanders; 39% picked Biden and 38% selected Sanders. No other candidate is higher than 5% in this question.

The majority of voters, 55% said the most important factor is to select a nominee with the best chance to defeat Donald Trump, in contrast to 46% who select a candidate who is closer to their views on issues.

The majority (87%) of New Hampshire Primary voters say the events of Monday’s Iowa Caucus will not have an impact on their vote, while 13% say the results of the Caucus will impact who they vote for.

Caller ID

The New Hampshire Emerson College poll was conducted January 31-February 2, 2020. The sample consisted of registered Democratic and Independent voters, n=500, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 4.3 percentage points. The data was weighted based on gender, age, education, region, and based on 2016 turnout model. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, party breakdown, ethnicity and region carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only (n=293) and online panels provided by Dynata and MTurk (n=207).

 

Full Results

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