Category: Polls Page 1 of 8

July National Poll: Biden extends lead in Democratic Primary, Trump Closes the Gap in the General Election.

The first Democratic debate has shaken up the race for the Democratic nomination. Compared to June’s national poll, former VP Joe Biden extended his lead, Sen. Bernie Sanders lost ground, Sen. Kamala Harris doubled her support, and Sen. Elizabeth Warren held steady. Despite Biden losing 4 points of his support from 34% to 30%, he extended his lead in the Democratic primary from 7 points in June to 15 points, as his main rival, Sanders dropped 12 points to 15% from his June number of 27%. Harris saw her numbers improve 8 points to 15%, and Warren ticked up one point from June to 15% of the vote, creating a three way tie for second.  The data was collected July 6-8 and has a margin of error of +/- 4.4%.

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June National Poll: All Eyes on the Democratic Debates; Biden, Sanders and Warren Separate from the Field

A new national poll finds the Democratic field coming into focus as the candidates prepare for this week’s first debates. Joe Biden continues to hold his announcement bounce, and has gained a point since May –  now holding 34% of the vote, followed by Senator Bernie Sanders who moved up 2 points to 27%. Senator Elizabeth Warren has broken away from the rest of those running, into 3rd place – improving from 10% of the vote up to 14%. Senator Kamala Harris comes in fourth with 7%, Mayor Pete Buttigieg is in fifth with 6%, and Senator Cory Booker follows in sixth with 3% of the vote. All other candidates poll at 1% or lower. The data was collected June 21-24, and has a margin of error of +/-4.5% for the Democratic primary.

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North Carolina 2020: Biden with Early Lead on Trump and Democratic Primary Field

A new Emerson Poll in North Carolina finds President Trump’s popularity underwater, with 52% disapproval and 41% approval (May 31-June 3, +/-3.1%). Trump received 50% of the vote to Clinton’s 46% in 2016, carrying the Tar Heel State and its 15 electoral votes. While the President remains popular within the Republican Party – Trump leads former Massachusetts Gov. Bill Weld 88% to 12%- the President is tied or trailing against four of the top five Democratic opponents, faring the worst against former Vice-President Joe Biden, who is ahead of Trump 56% to 44%.

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May National Poll: Biden Back In the Lead for the Democratic Nomination

A new Emerson National Poll finds former Vice President Joe Biden with a bump from his official entrance into the race, taking back the lead over Senator Bernie Sanders. The poll finds Biden with 33% and Sanders with 25%. The April Emerson Poll had Sanders ahead of Biden 29% to 24% making this a 13 point swing in favor of the former Vice President. Senator Kamala Harris and Senator Elizabeth Warren are tied for 3rd with each getting 10% of the vote, and Mayor Pete Buttigieg rounds out the top 5 with 8%. No other candidate in the field clears 3% (n=429, +/-4.7%, MM, May 10-13, 2019).

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2020 Texas: Biden and Beto in Dead Heat in Democratic Primary

A new Emerson Poll of Democratic Primary voters in Texas finds former Vice President Joe Biden at 23% and former Texas U.S. Senate candidate Beto O’Rourke at 22%. Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders was the only other candidate to clear double digits, polling third at 17%. Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 8% and Senator Elizabeth Warren at 7% are  ahead of former HUD secretary and native Texan Julian Castro, who is at 4%. The poll was conducted April 25-28, 2019, mixed mode, of Democratic primary voters with n=342, +/- 5.3%.

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April National Poll: Bernie Takes Lead for Democratic Nomination, Mayor Pete On The Move

A new national Emerson poll, including 20 Democratic candidates for President, found Senator Bernie Sanders ahead of the pack with 29%, followed by former Vice President Joe Biden at 24%. They were followed by Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 9%, former Rep. Beto O’Rourke and Senator Kamala Harris at 8%, and Senator Elizabeth Warren at 7%. Entrepreneur Andrew Yang and former HUD secretary Julian Castro were at 3%. The poll was conducted April 11-14 of Democratic Primary voters with a subset of n=356, +/- 5.2%.

Spencer Kimball, Director of Emerson Polling, said “while still early in the nominating process, it looks like Mayor Pete is the candidate capturing voters’ imagination; the numbers had him at 0% in mid-February, 3% in March and now at 9% in April.”

Kimball also noted that “Biden has seen his support drop. In February, he led Sanders 27% to 17%, and in March the two were tied at 26%. Now, Sanders has a 5 point lead, 29% to 24%.”

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Massachusetts 2020: Sanders, Biden lead Warren in her home state; Mayor Pete in top four. Trump popular only with his base.

The first Emerson Poll in Massachusetts of the 2020 primary finds Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders with 26% of the vote in the Democratic field, followed by former Vice President Joe Biden at 23%, Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren at 14%, Mayor of South Bend Pete Buttigieg at 11%, former Texas Congressman Beto O’Rourke at 8%, and California Senator Kamala Harris at 7%. 5% of voters are looking for another candidate. (April 4-7, n=371, +/- 5%).

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Nevada 2020: Biden and Sanders lead Democratic primary field; Trump Looks to Flip the Silver State Red

A new Emerson College poll in Nevada finds Joe Biden leading the Democratic field at 26%, followed closely by Bernie Sanders at 23%. Next, Beto O’Rourke and Elizabeth Warren have 10% respectively in the state, followed by Kamala Harris at 9%, and Pete Buttigieg at 5%. (n=310, +/- 5.5%)

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Pennsylvania 2020: Biden leads Democratic Field; Biden and Sanders lead Trump by 10 Points in General Election

The first Emerson Poll of 2019 in Pennsylvania shows former Vice President Joe Biden with a strong lead in the Democratic primary with 39% support. Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders is in second with 20%, followed by Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren with 11%, and South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg with 6%. (registered voters, March 26-28, n=359, +/- 5.1%).

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Iowa 2020: Biden and Sanders neck and neck in Democratic Field, Mayor Pete jumps to double digits

In Emerson’s second poll of the Iowa caucus, former Vice President Joe Biden narrowly leads the Democratic field with 25%, followed by Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders at 24%. Mayor Pete Buttigieg of South Bend, Indiana has surged to 11%. Senator Kamala Harris of California follows with 10% – the only other candidate to clear double digits in Iowa. Data was collected between March 21-24, and the Democratic caucus ballot test had a margin of error +/- 6.2%

Spencer Kimball, Director of the Emerson Poll concludes that “the biggest surprise in this poll is Mayor Pete, last week we saw him inching up in our national poll, and now he’s in double digits in Iowa, America is going to be asking who is ‘Mayor Pete’?” In Emerson’s January Iowa poll, prior to many candidates’ announcements, Biden led with 29%, followed by Harris, who had made her announcement just prior to the poll, at 18%, and Sanders, who had not yet formally declared, at 15%. Mayor Pete Buttigieg was polling at 0%.  

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