Iowa 2020: Dead heat with Biden and Warren, Mayor Pete continues to build and Sanders slides

In the first caucus state of the 2020 presidential election, the Democrat Primary field has shifted since the last Emerson poll in March. Former V.P. Joe Biden is now tied with Sen. Elizabeth Warren for the lead 23% each, followed by Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 16%, and Sen. Bernie Sanders dropping to fourth at 13%. No other candidate reaches above 5%. (n=317, +/-5.5%, MM, Oct 13-16, 2019)

According to Spencer Kimball, Director of Emerson Polling, “The good news for Biden is he did not lose much ground since March’s poll that had him at 25% of the vote. It appears that Warren has been the beneficiary of Sanders’s drop from 24% to 13%; Mayor Pete appears to have solidified his base in Iowa, going from 0% in February, to 11% in March, and now 16% in the Hawkeye state.”

Warren has also overtaken Sanders among voters under the age of 50. 21% of those under 50 support Warren followed by Sanders at 18%. Biden continues to lead with those over 50 – receiving  33% support from this cohort, followed by Warren at 24%.

Warren also now leads Sanders among those who supported the Vermont Senator in the 2016 caucus; Warren has 26% among this group, followed by Sanders at 19%, and Buttigieg at 16%. Among those who supported Hillary Clinton in the 2016 caucus, Biden captures 42%, followed by Warren at 22% and Buttigieg at 13%. 

Income level is a driving factor in voter preference among the top candidates. Among those making less than $50,000 a year, Biden, Sanders and Warren are all at 20%. Among those making more than $50,000 a year, Sanders is at 8%, Warren is at 24% and Biden is at 25%. 

President Trump holds a 47% disapproval and a 44% approval rating in Iowa while the Republican Governor Kim Reynolds is at 39% approval and 35% disapproval. Broken down, the President has a 52% disapproval among women, with a 39% approval, as compared to a 42% disapproval among men, with a 51% approval. A plurality of voters – 48 % – oppose impeachment with 42% supporting impeachment (n=829, +/- 3.3%). 

In the GOP primary, Trump leads the field of four candidates with 93% of the vote. (n=286, +/- 5.7%)

In hypothetical head to head matchups, Trump has a slight advantage over Warren and Biden:  51% to 49%, while Sanders carries a 2 point advantage over Trump with 51% to 49%; all three match-ups are within the polls margin of error. (n=888, +/-3.2%)

The most important issue for voters in Iowa in deciding for whom to vote for president is the economy at 33%, followed by healthcare at 19% and social issues at 10%. Impeachment ranked 7 out of 9 at 6%, ahead of education at 5% and foreign policy at 3%. Among Democrats, the most important issue is health care at 25%, followed by the economy at 17% and the environment at 14%. The majority of Republicans (55%) identify  the economy as the most important issue, followed by immigration at 14%. Independents are split between the economy (27%) and healthcare (24%). 

“The Democrats have some work to do in Iowa convincing voters that impeachment is a top priority of Congress;  67% of Democrats in Iowa support impeaching the president, but only 10% identify it as the most important issue in deciding their vote for president,” added Kimball.

One in four voters (25%) said they have seen a presidential candidate in person, and, as expected, Democratic primary voters were more likely to have seen a candidate at 34%. 

It is important for Iowans to be the first state in the Presidential nomination process to vote, 69% said it was important, while 31% said it was not important. There was no significant difference based on party affiliation and attitude toward the historic first in the nation caucus.

The Democratic Primary for US Senate is wide open with no clear frontrunner  – 74% of Democratic primary voters are still undecided. Theresa Greenfield is at 11%, Michael Franken and Eddie Mauro are both tied at 6% while Kimberly Graham is at 4%. 

In a potential head to head matchup against Sen. Joni Ernst, Greenfield trails 47% to 40% with 14% undecided.

 

Caller ID

The Iowa Emerson College poll was conducted October 13-16, 2019 under the Supervision of Emerson Polling Director and Assistant Professor Spencer Kimball. The sample consisted of registered voters, n=888, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3.2 percentage points. The data was weighted by gender, age, education, region and mode based on 2016 turnout modeling. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, party breakdown, ethnicity and region carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using both an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only (n=571) and an online panel provided by Amazon Turk and Dynata (n=317).

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Louisiana Governor Within Margin of Victory, Impeachment more Popular in Louisiana than Expected

A final Emerson College pre-election primary poll in the Louisiana Governor race finds Democratic Governor John Bel Edwards leading with 48% of the vote. Republican Businessman Eddie Rispone and Republican Congressman Ralph Abraham follow in a statistical tie, with 25% and 19% respectively. Independent Gary Landrieu is at 4%, Republican Patrick Landry is at 3% and Democrat Oscar Dantzler at 1%. (Oct 4-7, MM, n=467, +/-4.5%) 

This jungle primary will be held on Saturday, October 12, 2019. If no candidate reaches 50% on Saturday, a general two-candidate election will be held on November 16.  

Spencer Kimball, Director of the Emerson Poll points out:  “the poll shows incumbent Governor Edwards with a chance to win the race outright. However, if he does fall short of 50%, there is a competitive race to watch between Rispone and Abraham to determine who will challenge Edwards on November 16th.”

Kimball went on to say that “this race is close enough that one of the third tier candidates winning just a few percentage points could pull enough of the vote to keep Edwards from clearing the 50% threshold, on the flip side a melt of support could put Edwards over the top.”

Respondents were first asked their vote preference with an option of undecided, of which 5% of voters said they were still undecided. These voters were then asked a follow up question asking which candidates they leaned toward at this time, Edwards took 43% of the undecided vote, which combined with his base vote moves him from 46% to 48%. Both Rispone and Abraham’s vote share increase by one percent, when the undecided voters are added to their total. 

Edwards approval rating as Governor also falls at 48% approval, with 38% disapproval and 14% undecided.

Edwards’s base support is in the Eastern part of the state from New Orleans to Baton Rouge. Kimball suggests focusing on “ the 2nd, 5th and 6th congressional districts to see Edwards returns; If he exceeds expectations in those parts of the state, he has a real chance of winning 50% of the vote and winning the election outright.”

President Trump, who won the state by 20 points in 2016, has a 50% approval and 42% disapproval with 8% undecided. On the issue of impeaching the President, a plurality, 48%, oppose impeachment, and 43% are in support of impeachment. Kimball said, “this data suggests that the President has lost some ground in Louisiana. The issue of impeachment was more popular than what would be expected.”

 

Caller ID

The Louisiana Emerson College poll was conducted October 4-7, 2019 under the Supervision of Emerson Polling Director Assistant Professor Spencer Kimball. The sample consisted of likely voters, n=467, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 4.5 percentage points. The data was weighted by gender, party affiliation, age, and ethnicity based on 2016 turnout modeling. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, party breakdown, ethnicity and region carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only (n=248), an online panel provided by Amazon Turk (n=171) and cell phone (n=48) only responses via opt-in text message.

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Statistical Dead-heat with Biden, Sanders and Warren; Voters Support Impeachment

A new poll of Ohio voters finds a very competitive Democratic primary between former Vice President Joe Biden at 29%, Sen. Bernie Sanders at 27% and Sen. Elizabeth Warren at 21%. No other candidate in the race clears 7%. Data collected Sept 29-Oct 2, n=353 +/-5.2%.

On the issue of impeachment, 47% of voters support impeachment with 43% opposing and 10% unsure. Democrats support impeachment 79% to 14%, Republicans oppose it 75% to 12% and Independents are almost split evenly with 45% opposing and 44% supporting. There is a divide among the supporters of the top three Democratic candidates on the issue of impeachment as 92% of Sanders supporters and 91% of Warren supporters support impeaching the President, while 74% of Biden supporters are supportive of impeachment. 

Sanders continues to hold a strong lead with voters under 30 years old. In Ohio he captures 52% of this vote, but his numbers drop significantly with older voters. Sanders receives just 4% of the vote among those over 65. Biden has the reverse trend – winning 49% of voters over 65,  but captures only 3% among 18-29 year olds. Warren competes as the alternative choice with all age groups, with no significant variance in her totals across each group.

Sanders is holding onto a majority of his 2016 supporters in Ohio, as 57% still support him. 16% of 2016 Sanders supporters now favor Warren, 10% now support Biden and 8% now support Harris. Biden, on the other hand, holds a strong lead among those who supported Hillary Clinton in 2016. He receives 47% support from Clinton primary voters, followed by Warren with 29%, and Buttigieg, Sanders and Harris with 5%. 

Spencer Kimball, Director of Emerson Polling noted: “There are encouraging signs for Sen. Kamala Harris who is at 7% in this poll, as she gets 26% of the African-American vote, almost equal to Biden and Sanders who both get 27% of the African-American vote.”  Kimball continues, “This finding is in contrast to other states like South Carolina, where Biden has a lock on the African American vote; such is not the case in Ohio.”

President Trump’s approval rating is at 43% with a 51% disapproval in the state, similar to his national Real Clear Politics average. Trump struggles with female voters with 54% disapproving, while among men – 48% disapprove and 46% approve of the President.

Trump’s approval within the Republican party, however, remains very strong as he receives 87% of the vote in a potential Republican primary against his 3 opponents. (n=325, +/-5.4%)

Governor Mike DeWine is also suffering low approval in the Buckeye State, with a 30% approval and 34% disapproval rating. 36% of voters were undecided.

Nearly 1 in 3 voters (33%) identify the economy as the most important issue for voters in the upcoming presidential election. Health care (19%), social issues (14%) and the environment (9%) rounded out the top 5 issues. Among Democratic primary voters, health care is the most important issue (27%), followed by social issues (21%) and the economy (15%). 

Impeachment is ranked 6th out of 9 issues listed with 7% saying it was most important in deciding who they will vote for President.

Biden and Sanders lead Trump 53% to 47% in potential head to head matchups, while Warren leads 52% to 48%. When Vice President Mike Pence replaces Trump in the head to head matchups, he trails Warren and Sanders 51% to 49%, and Biden by 8 points, 54% to 46%. 

Spencer Kimball, Director of Emerson Polling said “at this point, it does not appear that the impeachment issue would significantly impact a Trump candidacy as his numbers are comparable with Pence in the head to head matchups.”

Trump struggles with voters earning under $50,000, getting about 41% of this vote against his Democratic rivals. Trump is tied or leads with income groups making over $50,000.

When voters were asked if they sympathize more with the United Auto Workers or General Motors in terms of the ongoing strike on issues of wages, healthcare and the use of temporary workers, A majority, 56% said they sympathize more with the UAW, while 23% said they sympathize more with General Motors and 21% were unsure. Seventy-six percent (76%) of Democrats and 58% of Independents are more sympathetic towards the Union, while Republicans are more sympathetic towards General Motors, with 41% supporting GM to 33% supporting the UAW.

 

Caller ID

The Ohio Emerson College poll was conducted September 29-Oct 2, 2019 under the Supervision of Emerson Polling Director Assistant Professor Spencer Kimball. The sample consisted of registered voters, n=837, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3.3 percentage points. The data was weighted by gender, age, education, ethnicity and mode based on 2016 turnout modeling. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, party breakdown, ethnicity and region carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using both an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only (n=552) and an online panel provided by Amazon Turk (n=285).

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Warren Surges, Biden Slips, and Sanders Holds, Three Way Dead Heat for the Nomination

The September 2019 Emerson national poll finds former Vice President Joe Biden losing support, now at 25%, down six points from 31% in August. Senator Elizabeth Warren has jumped 8 points, from 15% to 23%, while Senator Bernie Sanders holds his ground only dropping 2 points to 22% from 24%. Entrepreneur Andrew Yang increased his support to 8%, Mayor Pete Buttigieg is at 6%, and Senator Kamala Harris is at 4%. No other candidate polls higher than 2%. (MM, RV, n=462, +/-4.6%, 9/21-23)

Sanders continues to hold an advantage with voters under 50, with 28% support from that group of voters. Conversely, Biden continues to dominate the older vote with 42% support from those age 50 or over. Warren competes with her rivals with both age groups,  as she receives 23% support from those under 50 and 23% support among those 50 and over. 

Among voters who supported Sanders in 2016, 37% still support him, 23% now support Warren, 10% now support Biden and 9% now support Yang.  In contrast, among those who supported Hillary Clinton in 2016, 41% now support Biden, 22% support Warren, 14% support Sanders, and 6% support Harris.

Despite accusations of abuse of power and potential impeachment proceedings, President Trump’s overall approval has hit his highest point since February 2017 with a 48% approval and 47% disapproval – up from August where the President  had an approval rating of 43% and disapproval rating of 52%. In the poll, voters do not support war with Iran, with 66% saying the US should not go to war with Iran, while only 12% support such action.  Professor Spencer Kimball, Director of Emerson Polling, notes, “Perhaps, the President’s increased popularity nationally is a result of his reluctance to translate his administration’s hawkish rhetoric into the belligerent reality of war.”  

Trump also continues to dominate a potential Republican primary with 89% of the vote against his 3 announced opponents, former Gov. Bill Weld, former Rep. Mark Sanford, and former Rep. Joe Walsh (n=363, +/- 5.1%).

Biden appears to have lost support as well in the general election;   he has dropped 7 points in his head-to-head against Trump, now statistically tied at 50% to 49%. Warren’s numbers have improved against Trump, from being tied in the last poll, to a 51% to 49% two point advantage now. Warren polled best among Democrats in this month’s head to head match-ups with Trump. (n=1,019, +/-3%)

 

Issues

The most important issue for voters in deciding their vote for President is the economy at 34%, followed closely by healthcare at 19%. Immigration is at 12%, along with social issues and the environment at 6%.

For Democrats, healthcare is the most important issue at 29%, followed by the economy (18%), and social issues (18%). For Republicans, the economy leads with 48%, followed by immigration (20%). Among Independents, the economy was most important with 38%, followed by healthcare (19%), Immigration (14%), the environment (9%) and social issues (8%).

Voters attitudes toward e-cigarette/vaping use as a public health problem has slightly increased in the last 6 months, with currently 75% of voters say vaping is a somewhat or very serious health problem, up from 73% in Emerson’s March National Poll.

Voters were asked who would they rather have as Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi or Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez:  64% prefer Pelosi as compared to 36% opting for Ocasio-Cortez. Pelosi had greater support from all voters regardless of party affiliation.

Voters do not appear interested in repealing the 22nd amendment, limiting a U.S. president to a maximum of two 4 year terms, with 68% opposed and 17% in support.  Republicans were slightly more open to the idea with 29% support, while only 13% of Democrats and 8% of Independents supported repeal. 

A plurality of voters, 45%, plan to have a flu vaccine shot this winter, as compared to 35% who do not, and  23% who are unsure.

A split half sample was conducted to test the semantics of support for a carbon tax vs. a financial fine for carbon pollution. The questions garnered significantly different results.

When the question was phrased as “Would you support or oppose a carbon tax?” – 35% of voters were in support, 27% were opposed and 38% were unsure. In contrast when the phrasing was “Would you support or oppose a fine on corporations that pollute the air with carbon dioxide?” – 52% of voters supported, 25% opposed, and 24% were unsure.

Professor Spencer Kimball explains:  “this data suggest that the word choice influences voter attitude about a proposed policy. In this case, instead of talking  about a carbon tax, candidates should refer to a financial fine, in order to lead to greater acceptance of the policy; of course, opponents of the policy should describe such action as a tax.” 

 

Caller ID

The September National Emerson College poll was conducted September 21-23, 2019 under the Supervision of Emerson Polling Director Assistant Professor Spencer Kimball. The sample consisted of registered voters, n=1,019, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3 percentage points. The data was weighted by ethnicity, age, mode, gender, region based on 2016 turnout modeling. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, party breakdown, ethnicity and region carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using both an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only (n=667) and an online panel provided by Amazon Turk (n=352).

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Biden, Sanders, Warren in Statistical Tie in Democratic Primary; Harris Struggles in Home State

The California Democratic Primary is shaping up into a three way race; former VP Biden is tied with Sen. Bernie Sanders at 26% and Sen. Elizabeth Warren is close behind at 20%. A significant drop is seen between this tier and the next group of candidates; entrepreneur Andrew Yang is in fourth at 7%, followed by Sen. Kamala Harris at 6%, former Rep. Beto O’Rourke at 5% and Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 4%. Every other candidate is at 2% or less (MM, RV, n=424, +/- 4.7%, 9/13-16).

The California Democratic Primary will be held on Super Tuesday and Emerson Polling Director Spencer Kimball’s notes that at this point “Senator Kamala Harris is in trouble in her home state. If she is unable to gain momentum in Iowa or New Hampshire, come Super Tuesday she might have a similar fate to Sen. Marco Rubio in 2016, when he was unable to win his home state of Florida and dropped out of the race.”

Driving support for Sanders is younger voters under the age of 50. He leads those voters with 34% of their support, followed by Warren at 18%, Biden at 16% and Yang at 11%. Sanders also has strong support from the Hispanic population of California, leading that group with 36%, followed by Biden with 23%, Warren with 19% and Buttigieg with 7%.

Among voters age 50 or over, Biden leads with 40% support, followed by Warren with 23%, Sanders with 13% and O’Rourke with 8%. 

Among white voters, Warren leads with 29%, followed by Sanders with 20%, Biden with 18% and O’Rourke with 9%. Biden has an enormous lead among African-Americans, as he garners 59% support. No other candidate is within 40 points of Biden among that group. 

Warren’s support is also disproportionately from voters who have at least some college education, as she only receives 1% support from those who have a high school degree or less. 

Sanders and Biden supporters are both more likely to stick with their current choices as 67% and 59% of their respective supporters are planning to definitely vote for their first choice candidate. Only 31% of Warren voters said they will definitely stick with her.

President Trump’s approval in California is at 35% and his disapproval in the state is 59%, well below his national numbers. Additionally, California Governor Gavin Newsom has just a 32% approval rating and a disapproval rating of 42% in the state.

In a potential Republican Primary, Trump wins with 86% of the vote followed by former Rep. Mark Sanford (SC) at 6%, former Rep. Joe Walsh (IL) at 4% and former Governor Bill Weld (MA) also at 4%.

In potential head to head matchups against his top Democratic challengers, Trump trails by significant amounts against all of them. Biden appears to be his strongest opponent, leading the President 64% to 36%. Sanders leads the President 63% to 38% while Harris and Warren each lead by 22 points, 61% to 39%.

The most important issue for voters relative to who they will vote for president is the economy at 26%, followed by health care at 19%, social issues at 13% and the environment at 12%. Among Republicans primary-goers, 54% say the economy is the most important issue in deciding their vote for president, followed by immigration at 18%. Among Democratic primary-goers, health care is the most important issue deciding their vote for president at 25%, followed by the environment at 19% and social issues at 18%. 

Voters are split on California’s status as a sanctuary state, 40% support, 37% oppose, and 23% are undecided. Kimball notes, “if there were to be an issue that creates opportunity for Republicans in the state, the division on sanctuary state status appears to be one of them.” Independents oppose California as a sanctuary state 41% to 33%, which is more in line with Republican voters who oppose 74% to 13% than Democratic voters who support 59% to 16%.

65% of CA voters would prefer Nancy Pelosi over Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez to be Speaker of the House. Among registered Democrats, Pelosi’s support drops to 59% while among Republicans her support grows to 77%. 66% of Independents prefer Pelosi over Ocasio-Cortez. 

A majority of voters, 57%, support the removal of prior marijuana convictions from criminal records while 22% oppose and 21% are undecided. 67% of Democrats support this measure and 57% of Independents support it, while only 37% of Republicans support it. 

A majority of voters, 50%, support AB 5 which gives gig workers for companies like Uber and Lyft to be given full employee status, meaning they would be entitled to holiday and sick pay.  24% of voters oppose the bill and 27% are undecided. There is also a partisan divide on this issue, as 60% of Democrats are in support opposed to just 33% of Republicans and 47% of Independents. 

A plurality of voters, 44%, support SB206, also known as the Fair to Play Act, which would allow college athletes to profit off of their own name, image or likeness. 23% oppose the legislation and 33% were unsure. 51% of Democrats are in support, compared to 30% of Republicans and 44% of Independents. 

 

Caller ID

The California Emerson College poll was conducted September 13-16, 2019 under the Supervision of Emerson Polling Director Assistant Professor Spencer Kimball. The sample consisted of registered voters, n=830, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3.3 percentage points. The data was weighted by gender, age, education, party, ethnicity and mode based on 2016 turnout modeling. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, party breakdown, ethnicity and region carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using both an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only (n=498) and an online panel provided by Amazon Turk (n=332).

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Sanders Slips in New Hampshire; Biden, Warren Take Lead

In the “First in the Nation” New Hampshire Primary, the latest Emerson Poll finds the former VP Joe Biden and Sen. Elizabeth Warren in a statistical dead-heat with 24% and 21% of the vote, respectively. Sen. Bernie Sanders, who was leading in the February poll with 27% of the vote is now in third at 13%. Mayor Pete Buttigieg is in fourth at 11% and Sen. Kamala Harris is in fifth with 8%. Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard, who did not qualify for the second Democratic debate, is at 6% in the Granite state, Sen. Cory Booker is at 4%, Andrew Yang is at 3% along with former Congressman John Delaney, and 3% of voters are still undecided (Sept 6-9, 2019, n=483, +/-4.4%).

Prof. Spencer Kimball, Director of Emerson Polling, found differing outlooks for Sanders and Warren from this poll: “for Warren, only time will tell whether she is peaking this September or solidifying her base in the state. For Sanders, the question is whether his base of 18-29 year olds is splintering away from him, or if this poll is an outlier.”

It appears that New Hampshire voters are less decided on who they will vote for than the national audience, with 62% of voters saying there’s a chance they could change their mind regarding their current primary choice. In the last Emerson national poll, only 50% of voters said they could change their mind.

Trump’s disapproval among New Hampshire voters is at 53% with 40% approval. This is slightly up from the last Emerson Poll in February which had Trump at 52% disapproval and 43% approval in the state.

Trump continues to be popular within the Republican party, defeating his two potential rivals, former Gov. Bill Weld (MA) and former Rep. Joe Walsh (IL) with 80% support followed by Weld at 13% and Walsh at 7% (n=379, +/-5%)

In hypothetical head-to-head matchups, Trump trails all the Democratic candidates except Warren, where he is ahead at 51% to 49%. Outside of Biden’s 10 point lead, Andrew Yang performed second best with 54% of the vote. Spencer Kimball, director of Emerson Polling said “it is interesting to see Yang outperform his Democratic rivals against Trump. In this case, his lower name recognition may allow voters to idealize his candidacy.”

The most important issue for voters in deciding whom they will support for president is the economy at 29%, followed by healthcare at 18%, social issues at 15% and immigration at 11%, the environment at 9%, gun policy at 7% and education at 5%. Impeachment was the least important issue of the eight asked with 3%.

However, there are stark differences in what issues Republican and Democratic voters think are the most important. For Republicans, the economy is the most important issue to voters at 41%, followed by immigration at 17%. Social issues and healthcare are tied in third at 11% each. Democrats are more split on the issues, with a plurality citing social issues at 24%, followed by healthcare at 22%, the environment at 16% and the economy at 9%. Independent voters said the economy was most important to their vote at 30% and healthcare was the second most important at 20%. Immigration and social issues are tied for third most important at 11% each.

After the 2020 census, New Hampshire will be redrawing the congressional and state office district maps. Voters are currently split on who should draw these maps with a plurality, 47%, unsure. 30% think an independent commission should create the maps, while 23% do not favor an independent commission. 

Party affiliation appears to be driving this issue, as Democrats and Independents are more in favor of an independent commission at nearly 2:1 ratio (35% to 17%), while Republicans oppose 2:1, 36% to 18%.

In a potential candidacy for US Senate, former Trump Campaign Manager Corey Lewandowski leads the Republican field with 23% of the vote, followed by Don Bolduc at 9% and Bill O’Brien at 7%. Despite Lewandowski’s support from Trump, 56% of GOP primary voters are undecided at this point.

If Lewandowski gets the Republican nomination, he starts out about 10 points behind Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, 49% to 39%. This lead puts the incumbent Senator in a strong position from the start, as she is near the 50% threshold incumbents seek. In 2014, Shaheen was re-elected against Scott Brown, 52% to 48%. In the Emerson February poll, Shaheen and New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu were both at 44%, with 12% of the electorate undecided.

In the gubernatorial race, Republican Governor Chris Sununu leads his potential Democratic opponent, Dan Feltes, 53% to 37%.

 

Caller ID

The New Hampshire Emerson College poll was conducted September 6-9, 2019 under the Supervision of Emerson Polling Director Assistant Professor Spencer Kimball. The sample consisted of registered voters, n=1,041, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3 percentage points. The data was weighted by age, education, party, and mode based on 2016 turnout modeling. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, party breakdown, ethnicity and region carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using both an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only (n=692) and an online panel provided by Amazon Turk and Dyanata (n=349).

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August National Poll: Sanders Closing Gap with Biden; Mayor Pete Fades

In the latest Emerson national poll, former VP Joe Biden continues to lead the Democratic primary at 31%, similar to the numbers found in both of Emerson’s July national polls. Sen. Bernie Sanders gained some ground from the previous poll, with his numbers up for the second time in a row from 20% to 24%. Sen. Elizabeth Warren holds at 15% and Sen. Kamala Harris is at 10%. No other candidate clears 4%. Data was collected August 24-26, n=627, +/-3.9%.

Spencer Kimball, Director of Emerson Polling, points out that “Mayor Pete Buttigieg has seen his poll numbers drop all summer and is now at 3%, behind Andrew Yang who is at 4%. Mayor Pete has raised enough money to stay in the race for now but will need a strong debate performance to remain relevant.”

There continues to be a large age divide in the democratic primary with Sanders receiving 36% support of those under the age of 50 compared to 11% support among those 50 and over. Biden, on the other hand, has the support of 21% of those under 50 and 44% of those 50 and over. Warren’s support is more consistent as she is at 14% with voters under 50 and 17% with voters 50 and over. And Harris is at 8% among under 50 year olds and 12% among those 50 and up. 

Sanders’ support also disproportionately comes from those making less than $100,000 a year as he has the support of 38% of voters whose household income is under $50,000 a year and 22% support of those who make between $50,000 and $100,000 a year. Sanders receives just 6% support of those who make over $100,000 a year. Biden and Warren’s support is much more evenly spread out between the income brackets. 

Democratic primary voters appear to be locking in their choices, with 50% saying they will definitely vote for the candidate they’ve chosen at this time, up from 41% who were decided in early July. Biden and Sanders have the most loyal supporters, with 63% and 62% of their supporters indicating they are sticking with their candidate. Additionally, 45% of Warren supporters and 39% of Harris supporters say they will stick with their choice.

Presidents Trump’s approval has dropped a point to 43%. His disapproval rating has risen 6 points from the last Emerson poll in July to 52%, his highest disapproval rating since January’s national poll. However, despite this, he continues to lead his potential GOP opponent, former MA Gov. Bill Weld 84% to 16%. (n=558, +/-4.1%)

In five hypothetical general election match-ups, Trump trails Biden, but is in a statistical dead heat with the four other leading Democratic candidates.

Issues

The most important issue for voters in determining their vote remains the economy at 26%, followed by health care at 20%, immigration at 14% and the environment at 11%. The least important issues included social issues at 8%, foreign policy/terrorism at 7%, impeachment and gun policy both at 5%, and education at 4%. Among Democrats, the most important issue is healthcare (28%), followed by the environment (17%), and the economy (14%). Among Republicans, the most important issue is the economy (37%), followed by immigration (21%), and foreign policy and terrorism (10%).

Regarding the environment, voters were asked of the importance of a Presidential candidate prioritizing combating climate change. 69% said the issue was very or somewhat important to them, while 31% said it was not that important or not at all important to them. Among Democratic primary voters, 87% said that it was either very important or somewhat important compared to just 50% of Republican primary voters who said the same. The party gap between those who said it was very important is even greater as 59% of Democratic primary voters said it was very important and only 18% of Republican primary voters said that it was very important to them.

Spencer Kimball, Director of Emerson Polling, said “while nearly 7 in 10 people said combating climate change was a priority, only about 1 in 10 said it was the most important issue in determining who they will vote for. This might explain why Gov. Jay Inslee’s environmental message was unable to gain traction on the campaign trail in 2020.”

Last week, Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez suggested the Electoral College should be replaced, and voters appear split on whether the Electoral College is a fair process to elect the President. Forty-five percent (45%) say it is a fair process, 38% say it is not, and 17% were undecided.

Fifty-nine percent (59%) of Democratic Primary voters, say the Electoral College is not a fair process and 19% say it is, compared to 71% of Republican Primary voters who say it is a fair process to elect the president and 17% say it is not. 

Voters are split regarding the cause of death of Billionaire convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein: 34% believe he was murdered, 33% believe he committed suicide, and 32% are unsure. Party affiliation has a strong impact on what voters believe on this issue, as 46% of Republicans say it was murder vs. 26% say it was suicide. Among Democrats, 38% say it was suicide as compared to 26%b who  believe he was murdered. Of Independents, 31% believe he was murdered, 37% believe he committed suicide, and 33% are unsure.

Regarding QANON, a far-right conspiracy theory detailing a supposed secret plot by an alleged “deep state” against U.S. President Donald Trump and his supporters, 5% of voters believe in QANON, while 22% do not. 73% were unsure or had not heard of QANON. 6% of both Democrats and Republicans say that they are believers in QANON as compared to 2% of Independents. 

Methodological Brief

In this survey, respondents were split, with half being asked if a candidate promised to limit people’s access to guns would that make them more or less likely to support that candidate, while the other half were asked if candidate promised to not limit gun access would that make them more or less likely to support that candidate. 

Forty-percent (40%) of respondents said that a candidate promising to limit access to guns would make them more likely to support the candidate, 37% said it would make them less likely and 23% said it would make no difference.

In the other version of the question, 28% of respondents said a candidate promising to not limit access to guns would make them more likely to support the candidate, 42% said it would make them less likely and 30% said it would make no difference to them. 

Caller ID

The national Emerson College poll was conducted August 24-26, 2019 under the Supervision of Emerson Polling Director Assistant Professor Spencer Kimball. The sample consisted of registered voters, n=1,458, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 2.5 percentage points. The data was weighted by age, region, income, and education based on 2016 turnout modeling. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, party breakdown, ethnicity and region carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using both an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only (n=955) and an online panel provided by Amazon Turk (n=503).

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Colorado 2020: Sanders, Biden and Warren lead Democratic Field; Democrats look to gain Senate seat

A new Emerson Poll finds a very competitive primary shaping up for Super Tuesday 2020 in Colorado with Sen. Bernie Sanders at 26%, former VP Joe Biden at 25% and Sen. Elizabeth Warren at 20%. Sen. Kamala Harris was the only other candidate to break double digits at 13%. Colorado Senator Michael Bennet is polling at 1%. The data was collected August 16-19, n=403, +/-4.8%.

Sanders’ base of support is among 18-29 year olds where he takes 42% of the vote, and he also leads with 30-49 year olds with 34% of the vote but takes only about 12% of the vote from those over 50. Conversely, Biden leads with those over 65 with 43% of the vote while his numbers drop with the younger voters bottoming out at 18% of 18-29 year olds. Warren gets a more consistent percent of the vote from each age group. Spencer Kimball, Director of Emerson Polling notes, “the Colorado data is similar to other state and national polls where Sanders holds a base with the youth vote, Biden has his base with older voters and Warren holds equally strong across age groups. If either Sanders or Biden slip, Warren may be the beneficiary”.

Of those who voted for Hillary Clinton in the 2016 Primary, 45% now support Biden, 21% support Warren, 14% support Harris, and just 4% support Sanders. Among those who voted for Sanders in 2016, 53% still support him, 24% support Warren, 9% support Biden, and 3% support Harris.

For the first time in twenty years, Colorado will be holding a primary instead of their traditional caucus which has potential to impact the turnout model of the state. In 2016, Sanders won the state 59% to 40% over Hillary Clinton, but a look at potential new voters shows the top four candidates all popular and vying for new voters’ support. Of new voters who plan to vote in the primary, Harris receives the highest percentage (21%), followed by Sanders (20%), Warren (17%), and Biden (16%). Spencer Kimball, Director of Emerson Polling, says that “Colorado will be interesting to watch in 2020 because of the change in their nominating rules, going from a caucus to a primary, should increase turnout from about 13% to perhaps as high as 50% and we will see which candidate is able to attract those new voters, so far they appear split among the top four candidates.” In 2016 Sanders won 11 of 18 caucuses but lost 30 of 41 primaries.

When Democratic voters were asked if they could change their mind and vote for someone else or if they will definitely vote for their chosen candidate, 64% say that there is a chance they could change their mind and vote for someone else, whereas 36% say they will definitely vote for the candidate they chose. Younger and older voters appear the most set in the choices; 50% of those under 30 and 42% of those over 65 plan to stick with their candidate. Among those aged 50-64, a lesser 26% say they would keep their choice and 33% of 30-49 year olds said the same.

In the state, President Trump’s job approval is 54% disapproval / 39% approval. Trump’s approval with Republicans remains strong at 80%, his support is demonstrated in a potential primary match up against former MA Gov. Bill Weld where he leads 86% to 14% (n=339, +/- 5.3%). However, among Independents, Trump’s disapproval is at 57% and his approval is at 34%, contributing to his poor head to head performance against all of his top Democratic challengers. Currently, he is losing the state by larger margins against 4 of his 5 top Democratic challengers than in 2016 when Clinton won the state 48% to 43%.

In a hypothetical Senate matchup between Sen. Cory Gardner and former Governor John Hickenlooper, Hickenlooper holds a strong lead with 53% to 40% for Gardner. 8% are undecided. The key to Hickenlooper’s lead is his strong performance among Independents, among whom he leads Gardner 55% to 34%.

Caller ID

The Colorado Emerson College poll was conducted August 16-19, 2019 under the Supervision of Emerson College Polling Director and Assistant Professor Spencer Kimball. The sample consisted of registered voters, n=1,000, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3 percentage points. The data was weighted by a 2016 voter model on race, age, gender, party affiliation, education and US congressional district. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, party breakdown, ethnicity and region carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using both an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only (n=656) and an online panel provided by Amazon MTurk and Dynata (n=344).

 

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Dallas Morning News/Emerson Poll: Biden leads O’Rourke in Texas presidential primary, race against Sen. John Cornyn wide open

 

A new poll has former Vice President Joe Biden leading Beto O’Rourke in the Texas presidential primary and toppling Donald Trump in a head-to-head showdown.

The survey, conducted by Emerson College for The Dallas Morning News,signals that even with two favorite sons in race, Lone Star State voters want a familiar face as their nominee.

Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, the 2016 runner-up to Hillary Clinton for the party’s nomination, was third with 16% and the only other Democrat beating Trump in the general election.

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July National Poll: Biden extends support while Bernie Bounces Back

In Emerson’s latest poll, former Vice President Joe Biden continues to lead the Democratic Primary by a significant margin. Biden’s numbers increased slightly to 33% from the last Emerson national poll in which Biden received 30% of the vote. Sen. Bernie Sanders had the largest bounce of any candidate, increasing by 5 points to 20%, Sen. Elizabeth Warren dropped a point to 14% and Sen. Kamala Harris dropped 4 points to 11%. The only other candidates above 3% are Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 6% and former Congressman Beto O’Rourke at 4%. Data was collected July 27-29 of 520 Democratic primary voters, +/- 4.2% margin of error.

Sanders re-established his lead among 18-29 year olds receiving 36% support among that age group, in the earlier July poll Sanders was at 24% of the vote among 18-29 year olds. Warren follows him now with 17% of the youth vote, followed by Biden with 12% and Buttigieg with 10%. Among 30-49 year olds, Biden leads with 24%, followed by Sanders with 21%, Warren with 14% and Harris with 10%. Biden has a greater lead with those age 50-64 with 46% support, followed by Sanders with 15%, Warren with 14% and Harris with 13%. And then among those over the age of 65, Biden also leads with 51% support, followed by Harris with 11%, Warren with 10% and Sanders with 8%.

Among Democratic Primary voters that describe themselves as “Very Liberal”, Sanders leads with 30%, followed by Warren at 25%, Biden at 16% and Harris at 13%. Among those that describe themselves as “Somewhat Liberal”, Biden leads with 31%, followed by Sanders at 22%, Warren at 15% and Harris at 9%. And among voters who describe themselves as “Moderate” or “Conservative”, Biden leads with 45% support, followed by Sanders at 12%, Harris at 11% and Warren at 7%. 

Of respondents who voted for Hillary Clinton in the 2016 Democratic Primary, 47% support Biden, 15% support Warren, 14% support Harris and 10% support Sanders. Of those voted for Sanders in the 2016 Primary, 36% still support him, 19% support Biden, and 11% support Warren and Harris. 

President Trump’s job approval improved slightly from early this month and is now at 45% approval and 46% disapproval.  His support within the Republican party continues to be strong as Trump dominates a potential primary against former Massachusetts Governor Bill Weld 91% to 8%. The Republican primary poll was n=467 with a +/-4.5%.

In potential head to head matchups, President Trump runs slightly closer to some of his potential Democratic opponents than in previous Emerson polls. Biden and Sanders each lead Trump by 2 points at 51% to 49%, Warren is tied at 50% with Trump, and Harris and Buttigieg both trail by 4 points, 48% to 52%. Spencer Kimball, Director of the Emerson Poll, notes how “this is the second poll where Biden has seen his general election support dip since the first debate. This may have more to do with the more liberal positions he took, but in the last 3 weeks his head to head matchups with Trump have tightened 8 points.”


When asked to choose the most important issue in determining their vote for president, immigration tops the list for voters at 24%, followed closely by the economy at 22%.  The issue of impeachment jumped from under 5% in the last two Emerson polls to the third most important issue, at 12%.

There is a party divide on this question, as among Republican primary voters, 40% chose immigration as the most important issue, followed by the economy at 31%, and gun control and social issues at 8%. Among Democratic primary voters, impeachment is the most important issue at 19%, followed by healthcare at 16%, and social issues and the economy at 13%. 

Among those who voted for Donald Trump in 2016, 41% say their most determining issue for their vote in 2020 is immigration, followed by the economy at 28%, whereas the plurality of Clinton voters say impeachment is the most important issue at 21%, followed by health care at 15%. Kimball notes “the Democrats are taking a gamble with an increased emphasis on impeachment proceedings following the Mueller hearings, considering how effective their Healthcare argument was in 2018. It would seem to make sense to stick with that issue, but now the party seems torn between the two.” 

July 30th National July 9th National  June 25th National
Economy 22% 26% 33%
Healthcare 10% 21% 21%
Immigration 24% 17% 12%
Impeachment 12% 4% 2%
Social Issues 10% 16% 11%

Voters appear less excited for the second set of Democratic debates coming up this week, with 57% of respondents planning on watching some or part of the debates compared to the 72% who planned to watch the June debates. 

The Democratic House leadership is struggling with favorability among voters; Speaker Nancy Pelosi has a 28% favorable opinion and a 46% unfavorable opinion. The House “squad,” consisting of Representatives Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Rashida Tlaib, Illan Omar and Ayanna Pressley share this image problem. Ocasio-Cortez is at 30% favorable and 47% unfavorable, Tlaib is at 26% favorable and 42% unfavorable, Omar is at 25% favorable and 46% unfavorable, and Pressley is at 24% favorable and 35% unfavorable. 

Among Democrats, Pelosi is at 51% favorable/18% unfavorable, Ocasio-Cortez is at 54% favorable/17% unfavorable, Omar is at 46% favorable/20% unfavorable, Tlaib is at 48% favorable/17% unfavorable and Pressley is at 44% favorable/14% unfavorable. 

Caller ID

The national Emerson College poll was conducted July 27-29, 2019 under the Supervision of Emerson Polling Director Assistant Professor Spencer Kimball. The sample consisted of registered voters, n=1,233, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 2.7 percentage points. The data was weighted by age, region, income, and education based on 2016 turnout modeling. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, party breakdown, ethnicity and region carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using both an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only (n=794) and an online panel provided by Amazon Turk (n=439).

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