Category: Polls Page 1 of 7

May National Poll: Biden Back In the Lead for the Democratic Nomination

A new Emerson National Poll finds former Vice President Joe Biden with a bump from his official entrance into the race, taking back the lead over Senator Bernie Sanders. The poll finds Biden with 33% and Sanders with 25%. The April Emerson Poll had Sanders ahead of Biden 29% to 24% making this a 13 point swing in favor of the former Vice President. Senator Kamala Harris and Senator Elizabeth Warren are tied for 3rd with each getting 10% of the vote, and Mayor Pete Buttigieg rounds out the top 5 with 8%. No other candidate in the field clears 3% (n=429, +/-4.7%, MM, May 10-13, 2019).

A majority of Democratic primary voters, 56%, indicate there is a chance they could change their mind and vote for another candidate, whereas 44% say they will definitely vote for the candidate they are currently supporting. Spencer Kimball, Director of Emerson Polling notes that “Biden and Sanders have more loyal supporters, as 52% and 54% of their voters say they will definitely vote for the top two candidates, while only 33% of Harris voters, 27% of Buttigieg and 20% of Warren voters plan to definitely stick with their preferred candidate.”

A strength for Sanders throughout this early stage of the nominating process has been the support of younger voters. Sanders currently leads Biden among 18-29 year old voters, by an impressive 41% to 11%. However, Sanders’ support weakens with age: 30-49 year olds only break for Sanders 29% to 26%, as compared to 50-64 year olds who break for Biden 42% to 19%. Among those over 65, Biden has a strong lead, beating Sanders 52% to 7%.

Within the Republican Party, the President remains very popular, and very likely to hold the Republican nomination, leading Republican primary candidate and former Massachusetts Governor Bill Weld 86% to 14% (n=384, +/-5%, MM, May 10-13).

President Trump’s approval rating remains the same as in the April Emerson Poll with a 43% approval and 49% disapproval (n=1,006, +/-3%, MM, May 10-13).

In head to head matchups between Trump and his top Democratic rivals, Trump trails Biden and Sanders and is in a statistical dead heat with the other candidates.

Biden 54%, Trump 46%

Sanders 54%, Trump 46%

O’Rourke 52%, Trump 48%

Warren 51%, Trump 48%

Harris 51%, Trump 49%

Buttigieg 50%, Trump 50%

Voters are split when asked if they think Trump will be re-elected in 2020, with 50% thinking he will be re-elected and 50% of voters thinking he will not. Republicans are slightly more optimistic with 84% expecting a re-election while 80% of Democrats are expecting the President to be defeated. Independents are split 51% to 49%, with the slight majority expecting the President to lose.

When asked what issue is the most important in determining who they would support for President, the most common responses at 27% each are the Economy and Social Issues/Values, followed by Social Security/Medicare and Health Care at 14% each, and Immigration at 10%. The Mueller Report and the Federal Deficit each got 2%. (n=975, +/-3%). Kimball explains: “The Mueller report, in and of itself, is not the issue the Democrats are trying to win on, but serves as a frame for a larger narrative focusing on social/values issues meant to appeal to voters in 2020.  Such social/value issues are core for 38% of Democratic primary voters.”

Another observation by Kimball is that “the issue of the Federal Deficit was a top issue in 2012 for Republicans, yet is an afterthought in this election, as only 1% of Republican voters identify it as the most important issue in the upcoming campaign.” Kimball adds, “In this election cycle top issues for Republican voters are the economy at 41%, followed by immigration at 18%.”

Half of all voters, 50%, think Twitter and Facebook are biased against people with particular political beliefs, 21% do not, and 29% are unsure. The bias issue splits along party lines, with 71% of Republicans identifying a bias, as compared to  only 32% of Democrats who share this view. 50% of Independents believe the social media platforms are biased, while 16% believe they are not.

About half of all voters, 49%, have watched some part of the recent televised town halls with the 2020 Presidential candidates.

When voters were asked their political ideology, 36% identified as somewhat or very liberal, 38% said somewhat or very conservative and 26% identified as moderate.

Caller ID

The national Emerson College poll was conducted May 10-13, 2019 under the Supervision of Professor Spencer Kimball. The sample consisted of registered voters, n=1,006, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3 percentage points. The data was weighted based on a 2016 voter model of gender, age, region and ethnicity. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, party breakdown, ethnicity and region carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using both an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only (n=604) and an online panel provided by Amazon Turk (n=402). 

Follow us on Twitter ​@EmersonPolling

Full Results

Transparency Initative

2020 Texas: Biden and Beto in Dead Heat in Democratic Primary

A new Emerson Poll of Democratic Primary voters in Texas finds former Vice President Joe Biden at 23% and former Texas U.S. Senate candidate Beto O’Rourke at 22%. Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders was the only other candidate to clear double digits, polling third at 17%. Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 8% and Senator Elizabeth Warren at 7% are  ahead of former HUD secretary and native Texan Julian Castro, who is at 4%. The poll was conducted April 25-28, 2019, mixed mode, of Democratic primary voters with n=342, +/- 5.3%.


Spencer Kimball, Director of the Emerson Poll, explains “it seems that Beto O’Rourke does not have Texas locked up. Bernie Sanders had trouble back in 2016 in southern states, including losing Texas by 32 points (65% to 33%) to Hillary Clinton, so it will be exciting to see who can capture the Lone Star state in next March’s key Super Tuesday contest.”

Continuing the trend found in other Emerson polls this year, voters aged 18-29 continue to break more for Sanders than any other candidate, with 34% of their vote. O’Rourke leads among those age 30-49 with 31%, and Biden leads among 50-64 year olds with 29%, and among 65+ year olds with 36%.

O’Rourke does best with Hispanic voters, receiving 32% of their support. O’Rourke and Biden lead among white voters with 22% support each. Biden also leads among black voters with 40% support.

President Trump has a 46% approval/44% disapproval in Texas. However, he remains popular within his party, leading Republican opponent former Massachusetts Gov. Bill Weld 87% to 13%. (n=344, +/-5.3%). This is consistent with other Emerson polls conducted in different states over the past several months.

 

Head to Heads:

In general election matchups, Trump is in statistical dead heats with four of the top six Democratic opponents, and leads the other two. In a Donald Trump versus Joe Biden matchup, the two are almost exactly even at 50% for Biden and 49% for Trump. Beto O’Rourke versus Trump is very similar, with 50% going to Beto and 50% supporting Trump. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren are the other Democrats within the margin, with Trump receiving 51% to Sanders’ 49% and Trump leading Warren 53% to 47%. The rest fall outside of the margin, with Kamala Harris and Pete Buttigieg each receiving 46% support to Trump’s 54%.

Marijuana

Despite the state’s current strict marijuana policies, a plurality (38%) of Texans support full legalization, 35% support marijuana use for medical purposes only, 13% would like it decriminalized, and 14% said it should remain illegal.


Kimball notes: “It looks like Texas is headed, at the very least to medical marijuana in the near future. Among Democrats, 54% support full legalization compared to 27% who prefer medical uses only, and among Republicans, 44% opt for medical purposes only as compared to 22% who support full legalization. Independents are split on the issue with 39% supporting legalization and 35% supporting it for medical purposes only; even among Republicans only 24% said they wanted to keep it totally illegal.”

As expected, younger voters 18-29 prefer legalization 59% to 21% for medical purposes. Among older voters (those over 65), 45% agreed for medical purposes only, and 17% supported full legalization.

 

US Senate

In a potential 2020 U.S. Senate Race between Senator John Cornyn and former House candidate M.J. Hegar, the GOP incumbent Senator leads with 29% and Hegar is at 12%, 16% prefer someone else, and 44% are unsure of their choice. Kimball adds,  “It is clear that Hegar has some work to do to sow up party support, as Hegar gets only 25% of the Democratic voters, while 50% of the Dems are unsure.” Kimball continues, “On the other hand, Cornyn is getting 52% of Republican voters, with only 34% of GOP voters unsure.”

 

Caller ID

The Texas Emerson College poll was conducted April 25-28, 2019 under the Supervision of Professor Spencer Kimball. The sample consisted of registered voters, n=799, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3.4 percentage points. The data was weighted based on a 2016 voter model of race, region, mode, age. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, party breakdown, ethnicity and region carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using both an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only (n=559) and an online panel provided by Amazon Turk (n=240). Visit our website at ​www.emersonpolling.com​.

Full Results

Transparency Intiative

April National Poll: Bernie Takes Lead for Democratic Nomination, Mayor Pete On The Move

A new national Emerson poll, including 20 Democratic candidates for President, found Senator Bernie Sanders ahead of the pack with 29%, followed by former Vice President Joe Biden at 24%. They were followed by Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 9%, former Rep. Beto O’Rourke and Senator Kamala Harris at 8%, and Senator Elizabeth Warren at 7%. Entrepreneur Andrew Yang and former HUD secretary Julian Castro were at 3%. The poll was conducted April 11-14 of Democratic Primary voters with a subset of n=356, +/- 5.2%.

Spencer Kimball, Director of Emerson Polling, said “while still early in the nominating process, it looks like Mayor Pete is the candidate capturing voters’ imagination; the numbers had him at 0% in mid-February, 3% in March and now at 9% in April.”

Kimball also noted that “Biden has seen his support drop. In February, he led Sanders 27% to 17%, and in March the two were tied at 26%. Now, Sanders has a 5 point lead, 29% to 24%.”

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Massachusetts 2020: Sanders, Biden lead Warren in her home state; Mayor Pete in top four. Trump popular only with his base.

The first Emerson Poll in Massachusetts of the 2020 primary finds Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders with 26% of the vote in the Democratic field, followed by former Vice President Joe Biden at 23%, Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren at 14%, Mayor of South Bend Pete Buttigieg at 11%, former Texas Congressman Beto O’Rourke at 8%, and California Senator Kamala Harris at 7%. 5% of voters are looking for another candidate. (April 4-7, n=371, +/- 5%).

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Nevada 2020: Biden and Sanders lead Democratic primary field; Trump Looks to Flip the Silver State Red

A new Emerson College poll in Nevada finds Joe Biden leading the Democratic field at 26%, followed closely by Bernie Sanders at 23%. Next, Beto O’Rourke and Elizabeth Warren have 10% respectively in the state, followed by Kamala Harris at 9%, and Pete Buttigieg at 5%. (n=310, +/- 5.5%)

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Pennsylvania 2020: Biden leads Democratic Field; Biden and Sanders lead Trump by 10 Points in General Election

The first Emerson Poll of 2019 in Pennsylvania shows former Vice President Joe Biden with a strong lead in the Democratic primary with 39% support. Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders is in second with 20%, followed by Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren with 11%, and South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg with 6%. (registered voters, March 26-28, n=359, +/- 5.1%).

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Iowa 2020: Biden and Sanders neck and neck in Democratic Field, Mayor Pete jumps to double digits

In Emerson’s second poll of the Iowa caucus, former Vice President Joe Biden narrowly leads the Democratic field with 25%, followed by Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders at 24%. Mayor Pete Buttigieg of South Bend, Indiana has surged to 11%. Senator Kamala Harris of California follows with 10% – the only other candidate to clear double digits in Iowa. Data was collected between March 21-24, and the Democratic caucus ballot test had a margin of error +/- 6.2%

Spencer Kimball, Director of the Emerson Poll concludes that “the biggest surprise in this poll is Mayor Pete, last week we saw him inching up in our national poll, and now he’s in double digits in Iowa, America is going to be asking who is ‘Mayor Pete’?” In Emerson’s January Iowa poll, prior to many candidates’ announcements, Biden led with 29%, followed by Harris, who had made her announcement just prior to the poll, at 18%, and Sanders, who had not yet formally declared, at 15%. Mayor Pete Buttigieg was polling at 0%.  

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National Poll: Sanders Tied with Biden; Beto Gets Post-Announcement Bump

Former Vice President Joe Biden and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders are tied at 26% in the most recent Emerson national poll. Sanders’ support has increased 9 points from the Emerson February national poll, taken before he announced his campaign for President. Following the frontrunners in the poll are California Senator Kamala Harris at 12% and former Texas Representative Beto O’Rourke at 11%. O’Rourke’s support has increased 7 points from Emerson’s February national poll. Rounding out the top five is Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren at 8%. The poll was conducted March 17-18 of Democratic Primary voters with a subset of n=487, +/- 4.4%.

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Wisconsin 2020: Bernie Sanders Leads Democratic Field; Trump Competitive in General Election

The first Emerson College Wisconsin Poll of the Democratic primary finds Bernie Sanders holding a strong lead with 39% of the vote, followed by Joe Biden at 24%. In third place, Elizabeth Warren, the only other candidate in double digits, is at 14%. The poll was conducted March 15-17, n=324, +/- 5.4%.

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Michigan 2020 Primary- Biden With Strong Lead, but Sanders Waiting in the Wings.

A new Emerson College poll finds unannounced candidate Joe Biden leading a Democratic field of 13 candidates with 40% of the vote in Michigan, followed by Bernie Sanders at 23%, Kamala Harris is at 12% and Elizabeth Warren at 11% round out the only four candidates in double figures (registered voters, March 7-10, mm, n=317, +/- 5.5%).

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