Washington Post: Trump has two big problems in 2020: Pennsylvania and Michigan

Michigan and Pennsylvania, however, are not sharing in the national gains quite so much. Their unemployment rates are above the national average, and rates are even higher in the regions that propelled Trump to victory. In Pennsylvania, for example, that’s the regions of Scranton-Wilkes Barre, Johnstown and Williamsport. Their unemployment rates all remain at or above 5 percent as of February. That’s down a point or so from when Trump took office, but it’s not “great again” either. It’s probably not a surprise, then, that Republicans didn’t mount a serious challenge for either major statewide race, lost four House seats in the midterms, and won another three seats with less than 52 percent of the vote. A recent Emerson poll also shows that Trump would lose Pennsylvania by 10 points to either former vice president Joe Biden or Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.).

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Fivethirtyeight: Is Pete Buttigieg’s Surge Real Or A Mirage?

The splashiest data point in support of the Buttigieg bump is an Emerson College poll conducted March 21-24 that gave him 11 percent of the vote in Iowa, putting him in third place there. This marks a sizable gain for “Mayor Pete,” as he had gotten 0 percent support in the pollster’s January survey.

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Fivethirtyeight: Significant Digits For Monday, March 25, 2019

And yesterday, Emerson released a poll showing that Buttigieg is on the rise among likely Democratic caucusgoers in Iowa. Could it be a Buttigieg boomlet? Or could it be that it’s easy to see a trend when you combine an anecdote and a 249-person sample? Probably the latter! Only 315 days to go until votes are cast.

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NY Times: New York Buzzes Over a Mayor Mulling a 2020 Bid (Buttigieg, Not de Blasio)

Mr. Buttigieg, 37, has raised money from more than 65,000 individual donors, qualifying him to participate in the first Democratic debate in June. A recent poll of the Iowa caucus by Emerson Polling placed Mr. Buttigieg in third among Democrats.

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The Buttigieg boomlet appears to be having an effect: while the South Bend mayor remains virtually unknown nationally, his profile is rising quickly in key early-voting states. Incredibly, the most recent Emerson University poll in Iowa, released Monday, puts Buttigieg in third place in the Democratic primary field with 11 percent.

Buttigieg, a candidate with a grab bag of admirable qualities for a Democrat—youthful, Midwestern, military vet, Harvard grad—still lags behind frontrunners Joe Biden (25 percent) and Bernie Sanders(24 percent). But now he’s nosing out Kamala Harris (10 percent), Elizabeth Warren (9 percent), and O’Rourke (5 percent). That’s an impressive jump, considering when Emerson last spoke to Iowa voters in January, Buttigieg was polling at 0 percent. “

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Washington Post: Pete Buttigieg has broken through the noise on community and religion

Pete Buttigieg has broken through the noise of a cacophonous Democratic presidential field by raising issues that usually fall by the wayside in an era when politics feels prepackaged and defined by short-term obsessions.

He certainly got good news on Sunday with an Emerson poll in Iowa showing him surging from nowhere to third place and double digits. The poll found Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders in the lead with 25 percent and 24 percent, respectively, followed by Buttigieg at 11 percent, Kamala D. Harris at 10 percent and Elizabeth Warren at 9 percent.

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Washington Post: Progressive candidates help one person: Trump

Judging by the mix of Democratic candidates vying to take on President Trump in 2020, there’s clearly an appetite among some on the left to put forward a more progressive campaign to take the White House. But doing so would help one person in particular: Trump. Look to recent polls from Emerson College to see why.

The Emerson College polls in early-primary states all show that Trump’s share of the vote in test ballots against potential Democratic opponents is higher than his job approval ratings and increases as his Democrat opponent becomes more progressive. In each state, Trump polls worst against former vice president Joe Biden, slightly better against Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and best against Sen. Kamala D. Harris (D-Calif.).

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The Wall Street Journal: Please Howard, Don’t Hurt ‘Em; Are media pundits afraid Schultz will help re-elect Trump, or that the former Starbucks CEO will pull Democrats toward the center?

The Emerson poll also suggested that folks in the news business should definitely not relax. The school’s pollsters
When asked about the trustworthiness of different media sources, the slogan “as seen on tv” was proven effective
as voters ranked television as the most trusted source of information at 28%. Online publications and newspapers
each received 14%, radio received 10% and social media received 6%. However, 28% of voters said they do not trust
any news sources; a look inside these numbers reveal that 41% of Trump voters do not trust any news source
compared to 17% of Clinton voters.
A plurality of voters, 36%, ranked Fox News television as the most trustworthy news source followed by CNN at
19%, 14% each for NBC and MSNBC. ABC came in at 9% and CBS was at 8%.”

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Huffington Post: One Reason To Be Cautious About Those 2020 Horserace Polls

Emerson College’s polling society, which conducts their survey partly with automated phone calls and partly online, has experimented with a few ways of asking about the field since December. In some versions, they limited their slate to just six or seven “higher profile” potential candidates, or candidates who’d already announced, said Isabel Holloway, the group’s research assistant.

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9 polling experts explain what could happen if Joe Biden doesn’t run for the presidency

Spencer Kimball, director, Emerson Polling

We did ask that question in a January 21 poll — at the time, we used seven announced candidates [which did not include Biden or Sanders].

Warren led with 43 percent of the vote, Harris was second, at 19 percent. It looks like since that poll, Harris has gained momentum; she has gone from 9 percent of the vote in December to 15 percent of the vote nationally and 18 percent in Iowa. Warren has hovered around 9 to 10 percent of the vote.

That January poll did not include Sanders, but I am not sure a Biden voter would go with Sanders. Instead, I think Warren and Harris have the most to gain and a dark horse candidate like Sherrod Brown could build a base off the 25 to 30 percent of the electorate who are currently leaning toward Biden.


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