Mr. Buttigieg, 37, has raised money from more than 65,000 individual donors, qualifying him to participate in the first Democratic debate in June. A recent poll of the Iowa caucus by Emerson Polling placed Mr. Buttigieg in third among Democrats.
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The Buttigieg boomlet appears to be having an effect: while the South Bend mayor remains virtually unknown nationally, his profile is rising quickly in key early-voting states. Incredibly, the most recent Emerson University poll in Iowa, released Monday, puts Buttigieg in third place in the Democratic primary field with 11 percent.
Buttigieg, a candidate with a grab bag of admirable qualities for a Democrat—youthful, Midwestern, military vet, Harvard grad—still lags behind frontrunners Joe Biden (25 percent) and Bernie Sanders(24 percent). But now he’s nosing out Kamala Harris (10 percent), Elizabeth Warren (9 percent), and O’Rourke (5 percent). That’s an impressive jump, considering when Emerson last spoke to Iowa voters in January, Buttigieg was polling at 0 percent. “
Pete Buttigieg has broken through the noise of a cacophonous Democratic presidential field by raising issues that usually fall by the wayside in an era when politics feels prepackaged and defined by short-term obsessions.
He certainly got good news on Sunday with an Emerson poll in Iowa showing him surging from nowhere to third place and double digits. The poll found Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders in the lead with 25 percent and 24 percent, respectively, followed by Buttigieg at 11 percent, Kamala D. Harris at 10 percent and Elizabeth Warren at 9 percent.
Judging by the mix of Democratic candidates vying to take on President Trump in 2020, there’s clearly an appetite among some on the left to put forward a more progressive campaign to take the White House. But doing so would help one person in particular: Trump. Look to recent polls from Emerson College to see why.
The Emerson College polls in early-primary states all show that Trump’s share of the vote in test ballots against potential Democratic opponents is higher than his job approval ratings and increases as his Democrat opponent becomes more progressive. In each state, Trump polls worst against former vice president Joe Biden, slightly better against Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and best against Sen. Kamala D. Harris (D-Calif.).
The Emerson poll also suggested that folks in the news business should definitely not relax. The school’s pollsters
When asked about the trustworthiness of different media sources, the slogan “as seen on tv” was proven effective
as voters ranked television as the most trusted source of information at 28%. Online publications and newspapers
each received 14%, radio received 10% and social media received 6%. However, 28% of voters said they do not trust
any news sources; a look inside these numbers reveal that 41% of Trump voters do not trust any news source
compared to 17% of Clinton voters.
A plurality of voters, 36%, ranked Fox News television as the most trustworthy news source followed by CNN at
19%, 14% each for NBC and MSNBC. ABC came in at 9% and CBS was at 8%.”
Emerson College’s polling society, which conducts their survey partly with automated phone calls and partly online, has experimented with a few ways of asking about the field since December. In some versions, they limited their slate to just six or seven “higher profile” potential candidates, or candidates who’d already announced, said Isabel Holloway, the group’s research assistant.
Spencer Kimball, director, Emerson Polling
We did ask that question in a January 21 poll — at the time, we used seven announced candidates [which did not include Biden or Sanders].
Warren led with 43 percent of the vote, Harris was second, at 19 percent. It looks like since that poll, Harris has gained momentum; she has gone from 9 percent of the vote in December to 15 percent of the vote nationally and 18 percent in Iowa. Warren has hovered around 9 to 10 percent of the vote.
That January poll did not include Sanders, but I am not sure a Biden voter would go with Sanders. Instead, I think Warren and Harris have the most to gain and a dark horse candidate like Sherrod Brown could build a base off the 25 to 30 percent of the electorate who are currently leaning toward Biden.
The first votes to be cast in the 2020 Democratic presidential primary are still almost a year away and only a handful of potential candidates have announced their intention to run. Over the next few months, it is likely that more will enter the race and, in the lead-up to the debates this summer, all of the candidates will fill in the missing pieces of their platforms. All of that means that Democratic voters have a lot to learn before it comes time to commit to a particular candidate.
None of that has stopped pollsters from attempting to tell us who is leading the pack. A recent poll by Emerson of potential Iowa caucus-goers is pretty indicative of what we’ve seen from national polls so far.
A survey from Emerson College showed that Mr. Biden, with 29 percent, had a double-digit lead over Sen. Kamala D. Harris, a California Democrat who launched her campaign just weeks ago.
In a direct match-up with Trump, Biden would prevail in 2020 with 51 percent of the vote to the president’s 49 percent, Emerson College found in a survey released on Saturday. Other contenders eyeing the Democratic nomination, including Sens. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., and Kamala Harris, D-Calif., as well as former Rep. Beto O’Rourke, D-Texas, earned enough support to fall within the research’s margin of error.