This week, Emerson College released a poll of Texas that looked at a handful of issues and races in the state. The grabbiest headline in the bunch was a head-to-head poll of potential one-on-one matchups of various Democratic candidates against Donald Trump, in which the recently-announced Joe Biden topped the incumbent president by a single (well within the margin of error) point, 50-49.
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Democratic presidential candidates Beto O’Rourke, Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren are in a statistical dead heat with President Donald Trump in Texas, according to an Emerson College poll released Monday.
The Vermont democratic socialist may have surprised the party’s establishment with his strong performance so far. He’s been polling second, behind only former Vice President Joe Biden, who has yet to enter the race. Sanders also took the lead in an Emerson poll released Tuesday. He raised more than $18 million in the first quarter of 2019, the most money of any Democratic contender. And his base of loyal followers, who made him a force in the 2016 primary, has not gone anywhere.
Sen. Bernie Sanders finished ahead of Joe Biden in the first major national poll of the year that did not find the former vice president leading the pack of potential 2020 Democratic presidential candidates.
When asked whom they would support from a list of 20 candidates – including “someone else” – 29% named Sanders, and 24% named Biden in an Emerson College poll released Monday. They were trailed by South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg, who was the pick of 9% of likely Democratic primary voters
But Warren 2020 hasn’t polled well in practice. On Monday, Emerson released a poll that showed her in third place behind Sanders and former vice president Joe Biden in her home state of Massachusetts. She has less than 6 percent support in national primary polls and is stuck in the single digits in both Iowa and New Hampshire. These numbers can change, but they’re not a great start.
But her voters also trend older than his do. She does better among voters over 45 than those under in three of the four national polls, and in the Emerson poll, her age profile perfectly mirrors Biden’s in that the older the voter gets, the higher her support. In fact, Harris, not Sanders, runs second to Biden among voters 65 and older in that poll. This raises a big question: If she has to drop out, what will be a more important factor for her voters — their ideology, which tilts them toward Sanders, or their age, which tilts them toward Biden?
Michigan and Pennsylvania, however, are not sharing in the national gains quite so much. Their unemployment rates are above the national average, and rates are even higher in the regions that propelled Trump to victory. In Pennsylvania, for example, that’s the regions of Scranton-Wilkes Barre, Johnstown and Williamsport. Their unemployment rates all remain at or above 5 percent as of February. That’s down a point or so from when Trump took office, but it’s not “great again” either. It’s probably not a surprise, then, that Republicans didn’t mount a serious challenge for either major statewide race, lost four House seats in the midterms, and won another three seats with less than 52 percent of the vote. A recent Emerson poll also shows that Trump would lose Pennsylvania by 10 points to either former vice president Joe Biden or Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.).
The splashiest data point in support of the Buttigieg bump is an Emerson College poll conducted March 21-24 that gave him 11 percent of the vote in Iowa, putting him in third place there. This marks a sizable gain for “Mayor Pete,” as he had gotten 0 percent support in the pollster’s January survey.
And yesterday, Emerson released a poll showing that Buttigieg is on the rise among likely Democratic caucusgoers in Iowa. Could it be a Buttigieg boomlet? Or could it be that it’s easy to see a trend when you combine an anecdote and a 249-person sample? Probably the latter! Only 315 days to go until votes are cast.