New Hampshire 2020 Tracking Poll Night 8: Sanders Heads Into Primary With Lead, Buttigieg Within Margin of Error

The final 7 News/ Emerson College tracking poll of the New Hampshire Democratic Primary finds Sen. Bernie Sanders holding his lead in the Democratic Primary with 30%, followed by fmr. Mayor Pete Buttigieg with 23%, Sen. Amy Klobuchar with 14%, Sen. Elizabeth Warren with 11%, and fmr. V.P. Joe Biden with 10%. No other candidate is above 4%. Data was collected February 8-9, 2020, mixed mode, n=500, margin of error of +/- 4.3%.

Since yesterday, Sanders has held his support, Buttigieg has gained three points, Klobuchar has gained one point, and Warren and Biden have lost one point.

Spencer Kimball, Director of Emerson College Polling, explains the state of the race in New Hampshire: “While Sanders has a lead going into the election, Buttigieg has closed the gap and could still pull off a New Hampshire surprise, as he and Sanders are within the margin of error. Klobuchar continues to move up, but she still trails the top two candidates by a significant margin. Warren and Biden could still get as high as third but today’s data had them going in the wrong direction. ”

Respondents were asked if they would definitely vote for their preferred candidate or if there was a chance they could change their mind. Overall 69% said they will definitely vote for their candidate and 31% said that they could still change their minds. Sanders’ supporters are the most committed as 85% said they will definitely vote for him. Of the other top candidates, 68% of Warren supporters, 66% of Klobuchar supporters, 65% of Biden supporters, and 59% of Buttigieg supporters are committed to their respective candidates.

Continuing the trend found throughout this tracking poll, Sanders pulls very strong support from younger voters. Among voters under 50 years old, he leads with 42% support followed by Buttigieg with 24%, and Warren with 11%. Among voters 50 and over, Buttigieg leads at 23%, followed by Klobuchar at 22%, Sanders at 19%, Biden at 15% and Warren at 10%.

Sanders holds a strong lead among “very liberal” voters garnering 54% support among that group. Following Sanders among those very liberal voters is Warren at 21%, and no other candidate is in double digits. Among “somewhat liberal” voters, Sanders also leads with 32% followed by Buttigieg with 29%, Klobuchar with 14% and Warren with 10%. And among “moderate” or “conservative” voters, Buttigieg holds the lead with 28% support. Following him among those voters is Klobuchar with 20%, Biden with 15% and Sanders with 14%.

In the first congressional district, 35% of voters support Sanders, followed by Buttigieg with 20%, Klobuchar with 13% and Biden and Warren 9%. In the second district, 27% of voters support Buttigieg, 25% support Sanders, 15% support Klobuchar, 12% support Warren, and 11% support Biden.

Voters were asked again to pick a candidate, regardless of who they are going to vote for, who they expect to be the Democratic nominee. Sanders led this question with 44%, followed by Buttigieg with 16%, Biden with 14%, Klobuchar at 9%, Bloomberg at 8%, and Warren at 6%. Since yesterday, Sanders, Buttigieg, Warren, and Bloomberg have stayed the same, Klobuchar increased two points and Biden decreased one point.

For the questions of the day, respondents were asked if they think the winner of the Democratic primary will also win the White House, 85% said yes and 15% said no. They were also asked if they think the Democratic party is headed in the right or wrong direction, 76% said the right direction and 24% said the wrong direction. And a majority of respondents (53%) said that they think Nancy Pelosi is more aligned with the values of the Democratic party, 22% said AOC is more aligned, 11% said neither and 14% were unsure.

Those voting in the Republican primary in New Hampshire were also polled; 84% plan to vote for President Trump, compared to 16% who are voting for former Massachusetts governor Bill Weld.

 

Caller ID

The New Hampshire 7 News/ Emerson College poll was conducted February 8-February 9, 2020. The sample for the Democratic Primary consisted of registered Democratic and Independent likely voters, n=500, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 4.3 percentage points. The sample for the Republican primary consisted of registered Republican and Independent likely voters, n=500, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 4.3 percentage points. The data sets were weighted based on gender, age, party, education, region, and based on 2016 turnout model. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, party breakdown, ethnicity and region carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only (n=257), cell phones (n=192) and online panels provided by MTurk (n=51).

 

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