New Hampshire 2020 Tracking Poll Night 4: Buttigieg Continues to Gain on Sanders

Day 4 of the 7 News/ Emerson College tracking poll of the New Hampshire Democratic Primary finds former Mayor Pete Buttigieg’s support growing even higher as he is now at 21% in the Granite State. That places him in second place behind the frontrunner, Senator Bernie Sanders, who is at 31% support. Former VP Joe Biden and Senator Elizabeth Warren follow with 12% and Senator Amy Klobuchar is the only other candidate to reach double digits at 11%. Data was collected February 3-5, 2020, n=500, margin of error +/- 4.3%.

Since yesterday, Sanders and Biden have lost a point, Warren has gained one, Klobuchar has held her support and Buttigieg has jumped up four points. That makes it a nine-point increase for Buttigieg in the past two days.

Continuing the trend found in the first few days of the 7 News/Emerson College tracking poll, Sanders pulls very strong support from younger voters. Among voters under 50 years old, he leads with 43%, followed by Buttigieg with 15%, and Warren and Klobuchar with 12%. Among voters 50 and over, Buttigieg leads with 27% support, followed by Sanders with 21%, Biden with 19% and Klobuchar and Warren with 11%.

Sanders holds a strong lead among “very liberal” voters garnering 55% support among that group. Following him among those voters is Warren with 21% and Buttigieg with 9%. Among “somewhat liberal” voters, Sanders also leads with 35% support followed by Buttigieg with 19%, Klobuchar with 16% and Warren with 15%. And among “moderate” or “conservative” voters, Buttigieg has taken the lead with 30% support. Following him among those voters is Biden with 19%, Sanders with 16%, and Klobuchar with 13%.

Sanders leads both congressional districts: in the first district, 36% of voters support him, followed by Buttigieg with 22% and Biden with 12%. In the second district, Sanders has a smaller lead with 27% support, followed by Buttigieg with 21%, Warren with 14%, and Biden and Klobuchar with 13%.

For the 7 News/Emerson College Polling questions of the day, voters were asked about two moments from President Trump’s State of the Union yesterday evening. When asked if it was appropriate for Trump to not shake the hand of Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, 72% said it was inappropriate, 13% said it was appropriate, and 13% were undecided. When asked about the appropriateness of Pelosi choosing to rip up a copy of Trump’s speech, voters were more split. 43% said it was inappropriate, 43% said appropriate, and 14% were undecided.

Voters were asked again regardless of who they support, who they think will be the eventual Democratic nominee. Sanders led this question with 41%, followed by Biden at 26%, and Buttigieg at 19%. Since yesterday, Biden has decreased 6 points on this question, and Buttigieg has increased 9 points.

Caller ID

The New Hampshire Emerson College poll was conducted February 3-February 5, 2020. The sample consisted of registered Democratic and Independent voters, n=500, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 4.3 percentage points. The data was weighted based on gender, age, education, region, and based on 2016 turnout model. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, party breakdown, ethnicity, and region carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only (n=315), cell phones (n=73) and online panels provided by MTurk (n=112).

 

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