New Hampshire 2020 Tracking Poll Night 2: Sanders Lead Extends Further

The second of a continuous eight day 7 News/ Emerson College Polling tracking poll of New Hampshire Democratic Voters finds Senator Bernie Sanders with a commanding lead in the Granite State at 32% support. Former VP Joe Biden and Senator Elizabeth Warren are next with 13%, following them is Senator Amy Klobuchar and Former Mayor Pete Buttigieg with 12%. No other candidate reached double digits. Data was collected February 1-3, 2020, mixed mode, n=500, margin of error +/- 4.3%.

This represents a shift from the previous Emerson College poll of New Hampshire from yesterday, as Sanders gained three points, Biden and Buttigieg lost one point, Warren gained one point, and Klobuchar gained four points.

Continuing the trend found in the first Emerson College tracking poll, Sanders pulls very strong support from younger voters. Among voters under 50 years old, he leads with 40% support and is followed by Warren with 15%, Klobuchar with 10% and Buttigieg with 9%. Among voters 50 and over, Sanders leads with 23%, followed by Biden with 18%, and Buttigieg and Klobuchar with 15%.

Sanders holds a strong lead among “very liberal” voters with 51% support, followed by Warren with 32% and Buttigieg with 10%. Among “somewhat liberal” voters, Sanders also leads with 30% support, followed by Buttigieg and Klobuchar with 15% and Warren with 12%. In a departure from previous Emerson College polls, Sanders also leads among “moderate” and “conservative,” voters, receiving 23% support among that group. Following Sanders is Biden with 19%, Klobuchar with 14% and Buttigieg with 12%.

Within congressional districts, Sanders leads in the first district with 26%, followed by Warren with 18%, Klobuchar with 14%, Buttigieg with 13% and Biden with 12%. In the second district, Sanders is at 37%, followed by Biden with 13%, Buttigieg with 12%, and Klobuchar with 11%.

Voters were also asked to pick the candidate they believe will become the eventual nominee. Most were split between Biden and Sanders; 41% picked Sanders and 33% selected Biden. No other candidate is higher than 7% in this question.

The majority of voters, 54% said the most important factor is to select a nominee with the best chance to defeat Donald Trump, in contrast to 46% who select a candidate who is closer to their views on issues.

The majority (87%) of New Hampshire Primary voters say the events of Monday’s Iowa Caucus will not have an impact on their vote, while 13% say the results of the Caucus will impact who they vote for.

 

Caller ID

The New Hampshire Emerson College poll was conducted February 1-February 3, 2020. The sample consisted of registered Democratic and Independent voters, n=500, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 4.3 percentage points. The data was weighted based on gender, age, education, region, and based on 2016 turnout model. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, party breakdown, ethnicity and region carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced.

Full Results