Majority of Americans disagree with Trump’s national emergency despite a plurality agreeing with border wall extension

Biden maintains lead in 2020 Democratic field

Looking towards 2020, Joe Biden maintains a lead among Democrats, polling at 27%.

Bernie Sanders and Kamala Harris follow former Vice President Biden, Sanders with 17% and Harris with 15%. No other candidate clears double digits.

Among 18-34 year olds, 35% support Bernie Sanders, Biden receives 18%, Harris receives 12%, and the remaining Democratic candidates receive single digits. 35-54 year olds are split; Biden holds a plurality with 24%, with the remainder split roughly evenly between Booker at 10%, Harris  at 13%, Sanders at 14% and Warren at 12%. Biden has a strong lead among voters 55 and over with 34% of the vote.

Sanders leads in the Western states with 23%; Harris is slightly behind at 22% and Biden is the only other candidate in double digits at 20%. Biden leads in all other regions of the country, with 37% in the midwest, 30% in the south and 29% in the northeast.

Following the president’s announcement on Friday, 53% of Americans disapprove of the declaration of a national emergency on the southern border. Despite this, the majority of Americans support the wall in some form; a plurality, 48%, support extending the border wall, and 42% of Americans support maintaining the existing wall. Only 11% of Americans support removal of the wall altogether. The national poll of registered voters was conducted February 14-16 with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points.

Responses regarding what to do with the wall were largely divided along party lines, with 68% of Democrats supporting leaving the wall as it currently exists, and 81% of Republicans favoring an extension.

Trump’s approval nationally is at 51% disapproval and 43% approval, up from 52% disapproval and 42% approval in January. A majority of voters (52%) generally feel the country is headed in the wrong direction while 39% said it was headed in the right direction. In a generic congressional ballot test, Democrats lead Republicans 53% to 47%.

In head-to-head matchups on the 2020 ballot against President Trump, all Democrats have a lead over the President, though all differences are within the margin of error, with one exception. When asked if voters would cast their ballots for Biden or Trump, 55% said they would vote for Biden, and 45% for Trump.

List of other hypothetical 2020 Ballot Tests:

  • Trump 47% v. Elizabeth Warren 53%
  • Trump 49% v. Bernie Sanders 51%
  • Trump 48% v. Kamala Harris 52%
  • Trump 47% v. Beto O’Rourke 53%
  • Trump 49% v. Amy Klobuchar 51%
  • Trump 49% v. Cory Booker 51%
  • Trump 48% v. Sherrod Brown 52%

Given a choice between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, 52% said they would support Harris to Trump’s 48%. However, if Howard Schultz is in the race, Trump receives 45%, Harris 43% and Schultz 12%.

When Schultz is on the ballot with Biden and Trump, Biden maintains his advantage at 9 points ahead of Trump with 51% to the president’s 42%, and Schultz gets 7%.

When asked who they would vote for in a primary between Donald Trump and former Massachusetts Governor Bill Weld, Republican caucus/primary voters stick with Trump, who has 85% of the vote to Weld’s 15%.

Obama Tops List of Favorite President in last 40 years, Trump is second over Reagan

A plurality of voters chose Barack Obama as their favorite president of the past 40 years with 36%. Donald Trump was in second with 24% of voters, followed by Ronald Reagan at 18%. Among Democrats, 70% indicate that Obama is their favorite president. Republicans are more split, with 44% picking Trump as their favorite, and 29% choosing Reagan. Independents favor Obama (29%), followed by Trump (23%) and Reagan (21%).

Russia and Trump’s Campaign

When asked if they believe that President Trump’s campaign colluded with Russia in the 2016 Presidential Election, voters are split. Forty-three percent (43%) believe that Trump’s campaign did collude with Russia, and 42% do not believe that. Among independents, 38% believe there was collusion and 40% do not.

Miscellaneous Topics

  • It appears there was one thing most Americans agreed on; 87% of Americans said they had a good Valentines Day. 13% said they had a bad day.
  • A plurality (32%) of Americans consider those with an annual income of over $100,000 to be wealthy.

  • When asked if a presidential candidate supporting the Green New Deal would affect their vote, 25% of voters are more likely to vote for that candidate, 39% are less likely, and 37% are unsure.

Caller ID

The national Emerson College poll was conducted February 14-16, 2019 under the Supervision of Professor Spencer Kimball. The sample consisted of registered voters, n=1,000, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3 percentage points. The data was weighted based on a 2016 voter model of age, party affiliation, region and ethnicity. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, party breakdown, ethnicity and region carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using both an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only (n=700) and an online panel provided by Amazon Turk (n=300). Visit our website at www.emersonpolling.com .  

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Full Results

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