Month: February 2019 Page 1 of 2
The first New Hampshire Democratic Primary Poll since Sen. Bernie Sanders announced he’s running for president finds Sanders at a slight advantage with 27% of the vote, former Vice President Joe Biden with 25% and Sen. Kamala Harris at 12%. No other candidate clears double digits. The NH poll was conducted February 21-22 of registered voters, the Democratic primary ballot test had a sample of n=405, +/-4.8%.
Emerson College’s polling society, which conducts their survey partly with automated phone calls and partly online, has experimented with a few ways of asking about the field since December. In some versions, they limited their slate to just six or seven “higher profile” potential candidates, or candidates who’d already announced, said Isabel Holloway, the group’s research assistant.
Spencer Kimball, director, Emerson Polling
We did ask that question in a January 21 poll — at the time, we used seven announced candidates [which did not include Biden or Sanders].
Warren led with 43 percent of the vote, Harris was second, at 19 percent. It looks like since that poll, Harris has gained momentum; she has gone from 9 percent of the vote in December to 15 percent of the vote nationally and 18 percent in Iowa. Warren has hovered around 9 to 10 percent of the vote.
That January poll did not include Sanders, but I am not sure a Biden voter would go with Sanders. Instead, I think Warren and Harris have the most to gain and a dark horse candidate like Sherrod Brown could build a base off the 25 to 30 percent of the electorate who are currently leaning toward Biden.
Emerson College Pollsters break down the 2020 Democratic national primary poll results.
Following the president’s announcement on Friday, 53% of Americans disapprove of the declaration of a national emergency on the southern border. Despite this, the majority of Americans support the wall in some form; a plurality, 48%, support extending the border wall, and 42% of Americans support maintaining the existing wall. Only 11% of Americans support removal of the wall altogether. The national poll of registered voters was conducted February 14-16 with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points.
The first votes to be cast in the 2020 Democratic presidential primary are still almost a year away and only a handful of potential candidates have announced their intention to run. Over the next few months, it is likely that more will enter the race and, in the lead-up to the debates this summer, all of the candidates will fill in the missing pieces of their platforms. All of that means that Democratic voters have a lot to learn before it comes time to commit to a particular candidate.
None of that has stopped pollsters from attempting to tell us who is leading the pack. A recent poll by Emerson of potential Iowa caucus-goers is pretty indicative of what we’ve seen from national polls so far.
A survey from Emerson College showed that Mr. Biden, with 29 percent, had a double-digit lead over Sen. Kamala D. Harris, a California Democrat who launched her campaign just weeks ago.
In a direct match-up with Trump, Biden would prevail in 2020 with 51 percent of the vote to the president’s 49 percent, Emerson College found in a survey released on Saturday. Other contenders eyeing the Democratic nomination, including Sens. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., and Kamala Harris, D-Calif., as well as former Rep. Beto O’Rourke, D-Texas, earned enough support to fall within the research’s margin of error.
In the Emerson College poll of 260 planned Democratic caucusgoers, Biden is leading at 29 percent, well ahead of California Sen. Kamala Harris, who is polling 18 percent — 364 days before Iowa’s first-in-the-nation precinct caucuses. Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, who came within a hair’s breadth of defeating eventual nominee Hillary Clinton in the 2016 caucuses, is next at 15 percent, followed by Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren at 11 percent as the only potential candidates in double digits.