January National Poll: Voters split on Trump’s offer of temporary relief for “Dreamers,” oppose amnesty. Warren leads among announced 2020 Democratic Candidates

Of seven announced Democratic Presidential candidates, Sen. Elizabeth Warren leads the field with 43%, Sen. Kamala Harris is at 19%, and Julian Castro is at 12%, with no other candidate reaching double digits.

Amidst the government shutdown, President Trump’s job approval dropped this month to a 52% disapproval and 42% approval, this is down from December’s poll where disapproval was 47% to 43% approve. Regarding the President’s re-election, 57% said it was time to give someone else a chance while 43% said President Trump deserves to be re-elected. The poll was conducted January 20-21, 2019, n=942, +/- 3.2 percentage points.

Voters are split on who to blame for the shutdown with 42% blaming the President, 36% blaming the Democrats in Congress, 6% blaming the Republicans in Congress, and 16% blaming everyone. About 1 in 4 voters (27%) have noticed a difference in their personal lives because of the shutdown.

Voters generally favor increasing enforcement of immigration laws at U.S. borders with 55% in favor and 24% opposed. The wall is not seen as a solution at the border for 41% of voters, while 59% believe it could be a solution. 26% believe it is the best solution while 33% believe it is one of several potential solutions for border security.

Voters are split on the President’s proposal to end the government shutdown by exchanging temporary protection for “Dreamers” for wall funding with 55% opposing the deal and 45% in support. When voters were then asked if instead of temporary status for “Dreamers”, they would support full citizenship (amnesty), opposition increased to 66%, with 34% in support.

Overall, 53% of voters said the country is headed in the wrong direction, 35% said it was headed in the right direction. A plurality, 45%, feel that the U.S. economy is better than a year ago, with 35% saying it is worse. However, a majority of voters, 50%, feel that U.S. foreign policy is worse than it was a year ago while 33% said it was better.

A clear majority, 70%, said U.S. national policies are in need of major changes while 30% said they are generally good as they are.

The country is also split on leadership in Congress with 52% saying they would vote for a Democrat if the election was held today, and 48% saying they would vote Republican. In an Emerson poll prior to the midterm elections, Democrats led the hypothetical ballot test by 8 percentage points.

Regarding race relations, 50% of voters said race relations in the U.S. are getting worse, while 18% said they are getting better. On the issue of sexual harassment, 31% said they felt the amount of sexual harassment was decreasing, while 21% thought it was increasing.

Caller ID

The national Emerson College poll was conducted January 20-21, 2019 under the Supervision of Professor Spencer Kimball. The sample consisted of registered voters, n=942, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to. a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3.3 percentage points. The data was weighted by gender, age, party affiliation, region and ethnicity. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, party breakdown, ethnicity and region carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using both an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only (n=637) and an online panel provided by Amazon Turk (n=305).

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