Incumbents Feinstein, Newsom Favored to Win Senate and Gov Races in CA., Over 60% Disapprove of Trump

A new Emerson College Poll of California likely voters has Senator Dianne Feinstein (Inc. D) at 41%, and her challenger, Kevin de Leon (D) at 23%, with 37% of voters still undecided. In the Governor race, Gavin Newsom (D) leads challenger John Cox (R) with 52% to 32%, with 16% still undecided. The Poll was conducted October 17-19, of likely voters, n=671 +/- 4.1%.

A wild card in the US Senate race, which is between two Democrats, are Republican voters in which 61% are still undecided. Republicans are currently breaking for de Leon 26% to 13%.  When voters were asked if Feinstein deserved to be re-elected, or if it was time to give someone else a chance:  49%  thought it was time to give someone else a chance, with 39% saying Feinstein should be re-elected.  55% of California voters also believe that had Senator Feinstein brought forward the allegations against Judge Brett Kavanaugh sooner, it would have made no difference in his confirmation to the Supreme Court; 29% believe that it may have made a difference in the confirmation process.

Two of the ballot initiatives in California were also polled, 49% favor repealing the gas and diesel tax, and requiring voter approval for any future increases; 31% oppose repealing the gas and diesel tax. . On a different and very salient issue in California – the high price of housing – , 43% support adopting rent control ordinances, with 38% opposing.

In a generic ballot test question, 59% of California voters support the Democratic candidate and 30% supporting the Republican candidate.

Senator Kamala Harris, who holds California’s other U.S. Senate seat, has a 48% approval rating with 24% disapproving of the job she is doing in Senate. President Trump’s approval rating in California remains lower than the national average, with just 33% approval of the job he is doing as President as compared to 61% who disapprove.

Methodology

The California Emerson College Poll was conducted on October 17-19, 2018 under the supervision of Professor Spencer Kimball. The sample consisted of likely voters, n=671 with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 4.1 percentage points. The data was weighted by gender, ethnicity, party affiliation, and mode. It is important to remember that subsets based on congressional district, gender, age, party breakdown, ethnicity, and region carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using both an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only (n=336) and an online panel provided by Survey Sampling International Inc. (n=335).

Results

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