Linklater was right about Cruz in 2016. Time will tell how effective his new ad — and the Beto O’Rourke short film contest he is sponsoring — will be in booting Cruz out of the Senate. An ongoing poll launched Monday by the New York Times currently has Cruz leading O’Rourke by 12 percentage points. A poll released Sunday by Emerson College has Cruz up by only 5 points. Trump bested Hillary Clinton in Texas by 9 points in 2016.