A new Emerson College Poll of Texas likely voters has Senator Ted Cruz (Inc.-R) at 47% and Representative Beto O’Rourke (D) at 42%, and 8% of voters undecided. In the Governor race, Greg Abbott (Inc.-R) leads Lupe Valdez (D) 53% to 33% with 11% undecided. The poll was conducted Oct 1-5, of likely voters, n=500, +/-4.5%.

O’Rourke is the more favorable of the two senatorial candidates with a 50% favorable and 38% unfavorable; Cruz has a 48% favorable and 44% unfavorable opinion. President Trump remains a polarizing figure in the state, with voters split evenly at 47% favorable/ 47% unfavorable.

The confirmation of Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court could be a factor for Cruz as 46% support the confirmation and 41% are opposed – the same 5 point difference as Cruz’s lead in the senate race. The poll was conducted prior to the final confirmation vote.

Methodology
The Texas Emerson College Poll was conducted October 1-5, 2018 under the Supervision of Assistant Professor Spencer Kimball. The sample consisted of registered voters who said they were very likely to vote, n=500, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 4.5 percentage points. The data was weighted by ethnicity, party affiliation, mode, 2016 presidential model, and congressional district/region. It is important to remember that subsets carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using both an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines and an online panel provided by SSI.

Results

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