Month: October 2018

Portland Press Herald: New poll shows Mills 8 points ahead of Moody with race for governor heading into the homestretch

Located in Boston, Emerson is one of a growing number of colleges and universities conducting political polls. In 2016, an Emerson poll conducted in late October showed Hillary Clinton beating Donald Trump by 4 percentage points in Maine. In the end, Clinton received 3 percent more votes than Trump in the state…

The Emerson College poll of nearly 900 registered Maine voters shows that Mills, the state’s attorney general, was the top choice for 49.7 percent of respondents while 41.7 percent chose Moody, a business owner.

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Two House Races In Play and Potential Gubernatorial Upset in 3 NE States

Three new Emerson polls find competitive House races in Maine and New Hampshire and a tight race in Connecticut for Governor.  In Maine’s 2nd, Jared Golden (D) 47% is looking to upset incumbent Bruce Poliquin (R-inc) 46%, 4% undecided. If neither candidate reaches 50%, then a rank choice vote will be used to determine the winner. This is the first year Maine is using rank choice voting.

In New Hampshire’s 1st district Chris Pappas (D) 48% is trying to hold the seat for the Democrats against Eddie Edwards (R) 46%, 5% undecided.

The unpopularity of CT. Gov. Dannel Malloy maybe hurting the Democratic nominee, Ned Lamont who is at 46% with his Republican opponent Bob Stefanowski at 39%. Malloy has a 21% favorable/ 62% unfavorable; President Trump has a 36% favorable rating in Connecticut.

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NM Political Report: Emerson poll: Lujan Grisham leads by 9, Heinrich by 16

Emerson College released their second round of polling of likely voters in New Mexico, and the poll showed Democrat Michelle Lujan Grisham leading Republican Steve Pearce 53 percent to 44 percent in the gubernatorial race.

The two are involved in an expensive race that has included millions of dollars spent on TV ads from both sides in the hopes of replacing Susana Martinez as governor. Martinez, a Republican, cannot run for a third consecutive term.

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Close Governor races in Ohio, Oregon and Kansas; Democrats look to pick up Congressional Seat in Kansas

A new set of Emerson battleground polls find the female vote continues to break for Democratic candidates in Ohio, Oregon and Kansas, creating a competitive US Senate race in Ohio, tight Governor races in Ohio, Oregon and Kansas- and a potential Democratic House pick up in Kansas.

In Ohio, US Senator Sherrod Brown (D) is at 49% with Jim Renacci (R) at 43%. Females are breaking for Brown 54% to 37% while males are breaking for Renacci 49% to 43%. In the Governor race, Richard Cordray (D) is at 49% and Mike DeWine (R) is at 46%, but females are breaking for Cordray 52% to 41% while males are breaking for DeWine 51% to 46%.

In Oregon, Kate Brown (D) has 47% and Knute Buehler (R) is at 42%. Among women, Brown leads 51% to 35% while males break for Buehler 48% to 42%.

Kansas shows less of a gender divide but it still exists. Kris Kobach (R) is at 44% and Laura Kelly (D) is at 43%. Female voters are slightly breaking for Kelly 45% to 41%, while males are breaking for Kobach 48% to 41%.

Full Results and Methodology available below.

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Democrats Favored to Pick up Governorships in MI and NM; and Hold US Senate seat in NJ

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Incumbents Feinstein, Newsom Favored to Win Senate and Gov Races in CA., Over 60% Disapprove of Trump

A new Emerson College Poll of California likely voters has Senator Dianne Feinstein (Inc. D) at 41%, and her challenger, Kevin de Leon (D) at 23%, with 37% of voters still undecided. In the Governor race, Gavin Newsom (D) leads challenger John Cox (R) with 52% to 32%, with 16% still undecided. The Poll was conducted October 17-19, of likely voters, n=671 +/- 4.1%.

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Republicans with Edge in US Senate and Governor Races in Nevada; New Hampshire Races come into focus

In Nevada, US Senator Dean Heller polls at (R) 48%, US Rep. Jacky Rosen (D) is at 41% and 8% are undecided. In the Governor race, Adam Laxalt is at (R) 46%, Steve Sisolak (D) 41% with 11% undecided. The statewide poll was of likely voters, Oct 10-12, n=625, +/-4.2%.

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Rolling Stone: Richard Linklater Directed a Brilliant Anti-Ted Cruz Ad

Linklater was right about Cruz in 2016. Time will tell how effective his new ad — and the Beto O’Rourke short film contest he is sponsoring — will be in booting Cruz out of the Senate. An ongoing poll launched Monday by the New York Times currently has Cruz leading O’Rourke by 12 percentage points. A poll released Sunday by Emerson College has Cruz up by only 5 points. Trump bested Hillary Clinton in Texas by 9 points in 2016.

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Cruz extends in Texas US Senate race; Abbott cruises in Governor Race

A new Emerson College Poll of Texas likely voters has Senator Ted Cruz (Inc.-R) at 47% and Representative Beto O’Rourke (D) at 42%, and 8% of voters undecided. In the Governor race, Greg Abbott (Inc.-R) leads Lupe Valdez (D) 53% to 33% with 11% undecided. The poll was conducted Oct 1-5, of likely voters, n=500, +/-4.5%.

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Trump Approval Improves; Populace Issues are Popular with Voters

A new Emerson poll finds President Trump’s approval at 43% and his disapproval is at 50%. It appears the President has rebounded from the last poll on August 31 when his approval was 38%-53% and is back to his numbers from July 7 when the poll had it at the same 50% disapprove to 43% approve.  The poll was conducted Oct 1-4 consisting of n=1,000 registered voters, +/-3.2%

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