Despite the President’s Popularity, Kansas Governor race in a dead heat: Prospects favor Democrats Adding Two Congressional Seats

A new Emerson College Poll finds a statistical tie in the Kansas Governor race:  Republican Kris Kobach 37%, Democrat Laura Kelly 36%, Greg Orman 9%, and 15% undecided.  The Poll was conducted September 26-28, n=938,  registered voters, +/- 3.5%.

Kelly is having success in getting crossover support as compared with Kobach. Republicans break for Kobach at 58% to 18% for Kelly, while Democrats break for Kelly 70% to 8% for Kobach. Independents break for Kelly 35% to 26%.  There is no significant gender difference on who people support:  38% of men support Kobach and 35% support Kelly. Women support Kelly at 37% and 36% supporting Kobach.

President Trump is popular in Kansas with a 55% approval and 45% disapproval; however his endorsed candidate Kobach is unpopular with a 47% unfavorable rating and a 38% favorable. Kobach’s Democratic opponent Kelly has a 42% favorable and 30% unfavorable rating.

The e-Poll also studied each Congressional Election in the state.

  • In the 1st district, Incumbent Roger Marshall (R) 44%, Alan LaPolice (D) 17%, 35% undecided.(n=193, +/-6.8%)
  • In the 2nd district Paul Davis (D) 35%, Steve Watkins(R) 31%, 28% undecided (n=243, +/-6.4%)
  • In the 3rd district, Sharice Davids (D) at 47%, Incumbent Kevin Yoder (R) 41%, 10% undecided. (n=246, +/-6.4%)
  • In the 4th district, Incumbent Ron Estes (R) 50%, James Thompson (D) 26%, 20% undecided. (n=256, +/-6.4%)

Key Issues: ICE and Education

Nearly a majority of those polled in Kansas, 48%, oppose abolishing ICE, the Immigration and Customs Enforcement Agency as compared to 22% who favor ICE’s abolishment. 30% are undecided.

On funding for local education, a majority, 56%, say current funding is not enough, while 18% say it is just right; 16% say there is too much funding.

Methodology

The Kansas Emerson College poll was conducted on September 26-28, 2018 under the supervision of Professor Spencer Kimball. The sample consisted of registered voters, n=938 with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3.5 percentage points. The data was weighted by gender, party affiliation, and 2016 voter turnout. It is important to remember that subsets based on congressional district, gender, age, party breakdown, ethnicity, and region carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using both an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only (n=670) and an online panel proved by Survey Sampling International Inc. (n=268).

Results

Transparency Initiative