Manchin leads by 12 points in West Virginia Senate Race, Democrats look to take 1, possibly 2 House Seats

A new Emerson College Poll finds US Senator Joe Manchin (D) leading the State Attorney General Patrick Morrisey (R) 45% to 33%, 16% were undecided. The poll was conducted between September 13-15, mm, n=825, +/- 3.5%.

President Trump continues to be popular in West Virginia with a 55% favorability rating and a 36% unfavorable rating. Manchin also is popular in the state, but not as popular as Trump, with a 47% favorable and 37% unfavorable rating among voters. Manchin’s opponent, Morrisey, is underwater with a 44% unfavorable rating and a 32% favorable rating.

While Morrisey competes with Manchin among male voters with 37% of the vote compared with 40% for Manchin, females prefer Manchin by a wide margin –   49% to 29%.

Recently, Sen. Manchin released a new advertisement on TV in which he “shoots down” a lawsuit backed by Morrisey. 56% of voters said they had seen the Manchin ad, of which 45% said they were more likely to vote for Manchin, while 38% said they were less likely. However, among undecided voters who had seen the ad, 38% said they were less likely to vote for Manchin, as compared to 27% being more likely to vote for the incumbent Senator.

On the issues, voters oppose “sanctuary cities” 49% to 22%. Regarding President Trump’s recent tariffs, 43% said they were good for West Virginia, while 31% said they were bad for the Mountaineer State.

The Emerson Poll also provides insights on each congressional race in West Virginia:

District 1: Rep. David McKinley (R) 43%, Kendra Fershee (D) at 14%, with 43% Undecided (n=275, +/-6.3%)

District 2: Rep. Alex Mooney (R) 32%, Talley Sergent (D) at 24%,  with 44% undecided (n=277, +/-6.3%)

District 3: Richard Ojeda II (D) 36%, Carol Miller (R) at 31%, with 33% undecided (n=274, +/-6.3%)

Methodology

The West Virginia Emerson College Poll was conducted September 13-15, 2018 under the Supervision of Professor Spencer Kimball. The sample consisted of registered voters, n=825 with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3.5 percentage points. The data was weighted by party affiliation, 2016 voter turnout and gender. It is important to remember that subsets based on congressional district, gender, age, party breakdown, ethnicity and region carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using both an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only (n=395) and an online panel provided by Survey Sampling International Inc (n=430)

Results