Dead heat in Iowa Governor Race, Democrats look to pick up Congressional Seat

Evangelicals Approve of President Trump’s Job Performance, Rest of State Disapproves

A new Emerson College Poll in Iowa finds the Governor race with challenger Fred Hubbell (D) at 36% of the vote and incumbent Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) has 31%. 7% are planning to vote for someone else and 26% are undecided. The e-Poll was conducted September 6-8, with a sample of n=1,000, +/-3.2%.

Hubbell is more popular and less polarizing than Reynolds. Voters had a 43% favorable/ 22% unfavorable rating of Hubbell, but were split at 36% favorable and 37% unfavorable with Reynolds.

Younger voters are the demographic driving the undecided vote: 33% of voters under the age of 49 are undecided, as compared to voters over 65 where 16% are undecided.

The Emerson Poll also provides insights on each congressional race in Iowa.

District 1: Abby Finkenauer (D) 43%, Rep. Rod Blum (R) 38%, 12% undecided (n=250, +/-6.4%)

District 2: Rep. Dave Loebsack (D) 45%, Christopher Peters (R) 21%, 28% undecided (n=250, +/-6.4%)

District 3: Rep. David Young (R)  47%, Cindy Axne (D)  31%, 15% undecided (n=260, +/-6.4%)

District 4: Rep.  King (R) 41%, J.D. Scholten (D) 31%, 16% undecided (n=240, +/-6.5%)

President Trump’s approval is at 37% in Iowa with 53% disapproving. Among Evangelicals voters, Trump has a 55% approval and 33% disapproval. It appears the tariffs are driving down his overall approval:  24% of Iowan voters say the recent tariffs are good for Iowa, while 52% view tariffs as bad for Iowa. When asked about the US expanding the walls along the US-Mexico border, 50% say no, 40% say yes.

Maryland Congressman John Delaney (D-MD) who is running for President has a 17% favorable/13% unfavorable opinion; 21% of voters say they never heard of Delaney.

Methodology

The Iowa Emerson College Poll was conducted September 6-8, 2018 under the Supervision of Professor Spencer Kimball. The sample consisted of registered voters, n=1,000 with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3.2 percentage points. The data was weighted by party affiliation, congressional district and mode. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, party breakdown, ethnicity and region carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using both an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only (n=500) and an online panel provided by Opinion Access (n=500)

Transparency Initiative

Results