A new Emerson Poll finds President Trump comes out of the summer with a lower approval rating despite voters doing well financially. The president has a 38% approval and 53% disapproval in the survey — down from his early July numbers of 43%A/ 50%D. The Poll was conducted August 29-31, n=1,000 +/- 3.2%.

39% of those polled say they are doing better financially, with 25% opting that they are doing worse than they were two years ago. Of those that said they were doing better financially, 57% credit the president, while of those who said they were doing worse, 41% blamed the president.

Despite an improved financial situation, 47% think the country overall is worse off than it was two years ago; 35% said it was better off. This breaks along party lines, as only 13% of Democrats and 29% of Independents say the country is better off; 65% of Republicans say the country is better off now than two years ago.

Trump’s struggle with female voters continues:  57% of females disapprove of the president while 34% approve. Trump’s approval rating increases with older voters, however, and is above water with those over 75 years old, with a 47% approval and 45% disapproval. Trump also is popular among those with a high school degree or less, with a 47% approval and 42% disapproval.

The Generic ballot test for Congress has the Democrats leading the Republicans 52% to 39%.Independent voters are breaking for the Democratic candidate 46% to 32%. In a Generic ballot test for President, the generic Democrat leads the generic Republican 49% to 39%.In this generic ballot test, Independents slightly break for the Democrat 40% to 35%.

To be noted, a third party candidate may be viable in 2020 – as 47% of voters say they would vote for a third party candidate. A breakout by party affiliation finds 42% of Democrats and 40% of Republicans would vote for a third party.  61% of independents would vote for a third party as well.

Voters are happy with the season change to fall and the beginning of football season: 34% say football is their favorite sport to watch. Basketball and baseball were tied for second at 16% each. A look inside these numbers finds different sport fans have varying views of the president. For example, among those who like to watch NASCAR, 43% approve of the president and 44% disapprove. Ice hockey fans have a 42% approval and 45% disapproval. This contrasts with basketball fans, where Trump has a 26% approval and 67% disapproval. Soccer fans were similar, with Trump having a 30% approval and 53% disapproval.

Methodology

The national Emerson College Poll was conducted August 29-31, 2018 under the Supervision of Professor Spencer Kimball. The sample consisted of registered voters, n=1,000, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3.2 percentage points. The data was weighted by ethnicity, age, party affiliation, region and mode. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, party breakdown, ethnicity and region carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using both an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only (n=500) and an online panel provided by Survey Monkey (n=500)

Transparency Initiative

Results