Month: September 2018

Despite the President’s Popularity, Kansas Governor race in a dead heat: Prospects favor Democrats Adding Two Congressional Seats

A new Emerson College Poll finds a statistical tie in the Kansas Governor race:  Republican Kris Kobach 37%, Democrat Laura Kelly 36%, Greg Orman 9%, and 15% undecided.  The Poll was conducted September 26-28, n=938,  registered voters, +/- 3.5%.

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Arizona Voters Dead Even on Kavanaugh Nomination; Democrats Lead in US Senate Race, Republicans Lead in Gov Race

A new Emerson College poll finds that voters in the state of Arizona are split on President Trump’s nominee to the Supreme Court – Judge Brett Kavanaugh. The poll finds 44% of Arizona voters believe the Senate should approve Kavanaugh, and 44% who believe that the Senate should not approve his appointment. The poll was conducted Sept 19-21, registered voters with a +/-4.4%.

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Manchin leads by 12 points in West Virginia Senate Race, Democrats look to take 1, possibly 2 House Seats

A new Emerson College Poll finds US Senator Joe Manchin (D) leading the State Attorney General Patrick Morrisey (R) 45% to 33%, 16% were undecided. The poll was conducted between September 13-15, mm, n=825, +/- 3.5%.

President Trump continues to be popular in West Virginia with a 55% favorability rating and a 36% unfavorable rating. Manchin also is popular in the state, but not as popular as Trump, with a 47% favorable and 37% unfavorable rating among voters. Manchin’s opponent, Morrisey, is underwater with a 44% unfavorable rating and a 32% favorable rating.

While Morrisey competes with Manchin among male voters with 37% of the vote compared with 40% for Manchin, females prefer Manchin by a wide margin –   49% to 29%.

Recently, Sen. Manchin released a new advertisement on TV in which he “shoots down” a lawsuit backed by Morrisey. 56% of voters said they had seen the Manchin ad, of which 45% said they were more likely to vote for Manchin, while 38% said they were less likely. However, among undecided voters who had seen the ad, 38% said they were less likely to vote for Manchin, as compared to 27% being more likely to vote for the incumbent Senator.

On the issues, voters oppose “sanctuary cities” 49% to 22%. Regarding President Trump’s recent tariffs, 43% said they were good for West Virginia, while 31% said they were bad for the Mountaineer State.

The Emerson Poll also provides insights on each congressional race in West Virginia:

District 1: Rep. David McKinley (R) 43%, Kendra Fershee (D) at 14%, with 43% Undecided (n=275, +/-6.3%)

District 2: Rep. Alex Mooney (R) 32%, Talley Sergent (D) at 24%,  with 44% undecided (n=277, +/-6.3%)

District 3: Richard Ojeda II (D) 36%, Carol Miller (R) at 31%, with 33% undecided (n=274, +/-6.3%)

Methodology

The West Virginia Emerson College Poll was conducted September 13-15, 2018 under the Supervision of Professor Spencer Kimball. The sample consisted of registered voters, n=825 with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3.5 percentage points. The data was weighted by party affiliation, 2016 voter turnout and gender. It is important to remember that subsets based on congressional district, gender, age, party breakdown, ethnicity and region carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using both an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only (n=395) and an online panel provided by Survey Sampling International Inc (n=430)

Transparency Initiative

Results

Dead heat in Iowa Governor Race, Democrats look to pick up Congressional Seat

Evangelicals Approve of President Trump’s Job Performance, Rest of State Disapproves

A new Emerson College Poll in Iowa finds the Governor race with challenger Fred Hubbell (D) at 36% of the vote and incumbent Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) has 31%. 7% are planning to vote for someone else and 26% are undecided. The e-Poll was conducted September 6-8, with a sample of n=1,000, +/-3.2%.

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Voters Better Off Financially, Country Worse Off Overall Under Trump — Consider Third Party Option for 2020

A new Emerson Poll finds President Trump comes out of the summer with a lower approval rating despite voters doing well financially. The president has a 38% approval and 53% disapproval in the survey — down from his early July numbers of 43%A/ 50%D. The Poll was conducted August 29-31, n=1,000 +/- 3.2%.

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