A new statewide poll of Wisconsin registered voters finds Democratic issues of increase funding for education and raising the minimum wage to $15 to be popular with Independents which puts the Democratic party in position to hold US Senator Tammy Baldwin’s seat and take back the Governorship for the first time since Governor Scott Walker was elected in 2010. The poll also looked at the August 14 primaries. The poll’s margin of error was +/- 4.2 percentage points and data was collected July 26-28.
Month: July 2018
A new Emerson College poll of Michigan voters finds both the Democrats and Republicans are poised to nominate candidates with the best chances to win the Governorship. On the Democratic side, former state Senate Minority leader Gretchen Whitmer is leading the Democratic primary field with 39%, followed by businessman Shri Thanedar at 17%, and former Detroit health director Abdul El-Sayed at 12%, 31% of voters were undecided (n=282+/-6.4 percentage points. Data was collected July 19-21).
Alexandria Ocasio Cortez, the Boston University graduate who shocked the political world in June with a Primary upset over NY Congressman Joe Crowley tweeted after her win about At-large Boston City Councilor Ayanna Pressley, “Vote her in next, Massachusetts,” https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/alexandria-ocasio-cortezayanna-pressley_us_5b34c795e4b0cb56051fe887
It looks like Pressley has some work to do to duplicate Ocasio Cortez’s performance. A new Emerson College epoll finds Congressman Mike Capuano leading 38% to 29% among registered voters. 33% of voters are undecided. The poll has a sample size of 400 voters with a +/- 5.2% margin of error; data was collected July 19-21, 2018.
Both candidates are popular with Democratic primary voters; Capuano has a 61% favorable rating and a 16% unfavorable. Pressley has a 46% favorable and a 21% unfavorable.
Governor Charlie Baker is also popular among Democratic Primary voters in the 7th district with a 59% favorable rating and 17% unfavorable. This is in stark contrasts with Republican President Donald Trump who has a 26% favorable rating and a 61% unfavorable rating.
Assistant Professor Spencer Kimball, who directs the Emerson epoll, does see a “pathway for Pressley, she leads the Black vote 34% to 27%, with 39% undecided, and leads the Hispanic vote, 30% to 18%, with 51% undecided”. Kimball adds “these numbers suggest there is room to be made up with undecided minority voters”.
Pressley’s strength also is in the youth vote according to Kimball, where she leads among 18-34 year olds 41% to 26%. Nonetheless, Pressley trails with each subsequent age group (35-54 breaks for Capuano 34% to 30%; 55-74 breaks for Capuano 46% to 23% and those over 75 breaks for Capuano 48% to 22%).
Kimball also note troubling news for Pressley, as Capuano leads among females 41% to 26%. Drilling deeper into these numbers reveals that Capuano leading among white females 61% to 30%. Other encouraging news for Capuano is that he leads among very likely voters 51% to 24% (n=253, +/- 6.4), which according to Kimball means that “Pressley has more work to do to get her voters to the polls on September 4”.
When asked which candidate voters considered more progressive, Pressley leads 30% to 25% with 46% reporting being unsure.
Regarding opinion on Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency (ICE), 29% said ICE should be abolished, 43% said it should not be abolished, with 28% unsure. Pressley voters are more supportive of abolishing ICE 45% to 31%, while Capuano voters are more in favor of keeping ICE 49% to 24%. In a match-up for Secretary of State, Bill Galvin leads his opponent Boston City Councilor Josh Zakim 34% to 12% with 54% undecided.
The Massachusetts US Congressional 7th District Emerson College epoll was conducted July 19-21, 2018 under the Supervision of Assistant Professor Spencer Kimball. The sample consisted of registered voters, n=400, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 5.2 percentage points. The data was weighted by ethnicity, age, and gender. It is important to remember that subsets carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using both an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines and an online panel provided by Survey Monkey and Opinion Research.
A new statewide poll in Tennessee has the Democrat candidate for U.S. Senate, former Governor Phil Bredesen at 43% and Rep.Marsha Blackburn at 37%, within the poll’s margin of +/-4.1 percentage points. Data was collected July 11-14.
A closer look inside the numbers shows Bredesen having more success reaching across partisan lines: 20% of Republicans plan to vote for Bredesen, while 10% of Democrats say they will vote for Blackburn. Independents are breaking for Bredesen 44% to 27%. Among voters who said they were the most likely to vote in November, Bredesen leads 46% to 39%.
A mid-year Emerson College ePoll finds President Trumps’ Job approval rating at 43% and his disapproval at 50% which is an improvement from January’s Emerson epoll that found the President’s approval at 39% and disapproval at 52%. The President continues to maintain support among the 35-54 age group, a core constituency of his base, with an approval of 51% to 42%. However, his approval ranking is lowest in the Midwest – , with 40% approval and 54% disapproval – a region key to Trumps 2016 electoral victory.