A new Emerson College Poll finds Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D) in the lead for her party’s nomination and also ahead of her three Republican rivals in hypothetical head to head match ups. Governor Doug Ducey has lower approval (31%) than President Trump (43%) in the Copper State and a majority of voters (64%) think education funding is not enough. The epoll was conducted June 21-22 using a mixed mode of online and landlines with a BCI of +/-4 percentage points.

The Democratic primary voters have united behind Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D) at 51%, with no other candidate toping 8% in the poll. On the Republican side, Rep. Martha McSally leads the field with 32% of the vote, followed by Kelli Ward at 19%, and Joe Arpaio at 18%, 23% of Republican primary voters were still undecided.

In the head-to-head matchup, Sinema (D) leads all her Republican challengers. McSally (R) appears to be the strongest competition (trailing Sinema 40% to 32%), while Arpaio (trailing 54% to 30%), and would most likely have the most difficult time defending the seat for the Republican Party if he was to receive the nomination.

In the Governor’s race, Republican Governor Doug Ducey leads his GOP opponent Ken Bennett 44% to 22%, with 35% undecided.

The data suggests the Democrats have rallied around David Garcia with 30% of the vote; Steve Farley garners 13%, with Kelly Fryer at 9%, and there is still room for movement in the race with 48% of voters undecided.

Ducey has a 31% approval rating and a 39% disapproval, this compare unfavorably to President Trump who has a 43% approval and 49% disapproval. A major theme of Ducey’s 2014 campaign was fixing education, but currently 64% of voters say there is not enough funding for education; 20% said it was just right, and 8% said there was too much funding for education.

When voters were asked about legalization of marijuana, 53% approve and 39% disapprove. Democrats (66%) and Independents (62%) are in strong support for legalization, while only 32% of Republicans support legalization, 61% oppose. A potential issue for the Democrats is that while legalization is very popular with 18-34 year old voters – 65% support, 20% oppose, another key constituent group, Hispanic voters, are split 45% support with 44% oppose.

In a generic ballot test question, Democrat candidates have 44% of the vote, Republicans get 40%. The potential swing district for Republicans to capture in the House is the first district, while Democrats are eyeing the second and the eighth.

Methodology:

The Emerson College Poll in Arizona was conducted June 21-22, 2018 under the supervision of Professor Spencer Kimball. The sample consisted of only registered voters, n=650, with a Bayesian Credibility Interval (similar to margin of error) of +/- 4 percentage points. The Republican primary subsample consists of only potential Republican primary voters, n=305, with a BCI of +/- 5.9 percentage points. The Democratic primary subsample consists of only potential Democratic primary voters, n=260, with a BCI of +/- 6.2 percentage points. The data was weighted by party affiliation, 2016 Presidential vote total, congressional district, and mode based on a registered voter model. Data was collected using both an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only and an online panel provided by Opinion Research.

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Results