A new Emerson College Poll in Missouri has the closely watched Senate race between incumbent Democrat Claire McCaskill and likely Republican challenger Josh Hawley in a tie, with each candidate receiving 45% of the vote, and 11% of voters undecided. The state’s major ballot initiative to overturn the recently passed “Right-to-Work” law is also tied at 40%, with 20% undecided. The poll was conducted April 26-29, 2018 and has a credibility interval of +/- 4.2%.
Though Hawley has a competitive general election ahead of him, he is facing little trouble in the GOP primary to take on McCaskill. Hawley leads the Republican primary with 37% of the vote, near 30 percentage points ahead of second-place finisher and 2016 Libertarian Presidential candidate-turned Republican Senate candidate Austin Petersen at 8%. Courtland Sykes, who made headlines earlier this year after making controversial remarks regarding feminism, is at 6%, with 5% opting for “someone else.” Interestingly, 45% of Republican primary voters remain undecided.
Governor Eric Greitens, currently reeling from multiple scandals involving infidelity, blackmail, and campaign finance violations, has an approval rating of 33%, with 46% disapproving. When asked what the Governor should do next, 36% want the Governor to resign, 33% want the governor to remain in office, and 18% want him impeached, which means that 54% of Missouri voters want Greitens out as Governor.
President Trump is just above water with Missouri voters, with a 47% approval rating and 45% disapproval. This represents a major loss of ground for the President, who won the Show-Me State in 2016 by 19%, with 57% of the vote.
Other key findings from the poll include:
Union members, who make up about 18% of the electorate, support the repeal of the right-towork law by a margin of 48% to 36%. Non-union members are much more divided, narrowly opposing the repeal 42% to 39%.
McCaskill benefits from an enthusiasm advantage, with voters who are “very excited” to vote in 2018 favoring the Senator over her GOP challenger by a 52% to 41% margin.
Both US Senate Candidates are polarizing figures for voters with McCaskill having a 42% favorable and 42% unfavorable rating, while Hawley is generally less known in the State and had a 29% unfavorable and 27% favorable rating.
The Emerson College Poll in Missouri was conducted April 26-29, 2018 under the supervision of Professor Spencer Kimball. The sample consisted of only likely registered voters, n=600, with a Credibility Interval (similar to margin of error) of +/- 4.2 percentage points. The Republican primary subsample consists of only likely Republican primary voters, n=283, with a Credibility Interval of +/- 6 percentage points. The data was weighted by party affiliation, gender, region, and mode based on a registered voter model. Data was collected using both an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only and an online panel provided by Survey Sampling International (SSI).