A new Emerson College Poll has Democratic candidate Republican Debbie Lesko pulling away from her Democrat Opponent Hiral Tipirneni 49% to 43% with 8% undecided. The special election will held on April 24. A poll conducted a week before had the race tied at 46% for Tipirneni and 45% for Lesko. Data was collected April 19-22 with a +/- 5.2 percentage point credibility interval.
This week’s poll used voter turnout projections based on the early vote (http://www.arizona.vote/early-ballot-statistics) to determine the party splits. The data finds Republicans making up about 49% of the vote, as compared with Democrats, who up just under 28% of the vote. In the previous Emerson poll, the turnout projections were based on voter registration numbers (https://bit.ly/2HKwcW7) which has the district at 41% Republican and 25% Democratic.
Regardless of the party affiliation projections, Lesko had about a 4 point swing this week in her raw numbers. This swing could be credited to the base of the Republican Party coming back into the fold for her. In the previous poll Lesko was getting about 80% of the Trump vote from 2016 and in this poll it jumped to 84%. Trump won the District in 2016 58% to 37%. Tipirneni saw her share of the Democratic vote tick down a point to 85% to 84%.
The AZ USC 8th district Emerson College Poll was conducted April 19-22, 2018 under the Supervision of Professor Spencer Kimball. The sample consisted of only likely registered voters, n=400, with a Credibility Interval (similar to margin of error) of +/- 5.2 percentage points. The data was weighted by party affiliation, ethnicity and mode based on a turnout out modeling. Data was collected using both an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only and an online panel provided by Survey Sampling International (SSI).