Statistical Dead Heat in PA 18th Congressional Special Election. Democrat Conor Lamb leads Republican Rick Saccone 48% to 45%, 10 days out from election

A new Emerson College poll finds Pennsylvania’s 18th District Special Congressional election with Conor Lamb at 48% and Republican Rick Saccone at 45%, 7% of likely voters are undecided. The data was collected between March 1-3 and used an online and landline sample of 474 likely voters with a CI of +/- 4.8 percentage points.

This election has garnered a lot of voting excitement with 56% saying they are very excited to vote, and 7% not excited at all. It’s voter excitement that might put Lamb over the top. When asked about level of excitement among voters about the election, 63% of Lamb voters reported being very excited compared to 53% of Saccone voters. Lamb voters also are paying more attention to the race, with 47% reported paying a lot of attention, compared to 42% of Saccone voters.

Lamb has a positive image in the district, with 48% saying they have a favorable opinion and a 33% unfavorable rating – 15% of voters had heard of him but had no opinion. Saccone is not as popular with a 44% favorable and a 40% unfavorable rating – 15% of voters had heard of him but had no opinion.

Lamb leads 57% to 40% in Allegheny County, which is expected to account for about 42% of the vote. Saccone leads in Westmoreland County 51% to 42%, a county that comprises about 33% of the vote. Saccone leads in Washington County 46% to 41%, which make up about 22% of the vote.

Trump won the district 58% to 39% in 2016, and Mitt Romney fared equally well in 2012 with 58% of the vote to 41% for President Obama. Trump currently has a 47% job approval in the district with 43% disapproving, despite 46% of the district being registered Democrat. Similarly, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi only has a 20% approval rate, with 57% disapproving.

When it comes to issues, 47% said that they are less likely to vote for someone running on an impeach Trump platform, compared to 38% saying they are more likely to vote based on that issue, and 10% claiming it makes no difference. Arming teachers in classrooms has become a hot topic with 48% opposing the idea and 40% supporting it.

This will be the last election for this configuration, as new district maps will be implemented for the 2018 primary in May. Voters were asked about the recently redrawn Congressional district map and based on what they knew, 37% said it favored Democrats and 11% said it favored Republicans. 31% thought it was fair to both parties.

Methodology: The PA USC 18th district Emerson College epoll was conducted March 1-3, 2018 under the Supervision of Professor Spencer Kimball. The sample consisted of only registered voters, n=474, with a Credibility Interval (similar to margin of error) of +/- 4.8 percentage points. The data was weighted by party affiliation, gender and county. Data was collected using both an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only and an online panel provided by Survey Sampling International (SSI).

Transparency Initiative

Results