Month: November 2017

Jones closes gap to 6 points on Moore in Alabama

A new Emerson College poll in Alabama finds Democrat Doug Jones trailing Republican Roy Moore 53% to 47%. The poll was conducted November 25-27 and a margin of error of +/- 4.3 percentage points.

Moore’s 6 point advantage is down from ten points (55% to 45%) in Emerson’s previous poll conducted November 9-11 in the wake of sexual misconduct allegations. During the last two weeks, Jones has seen his favorability rating increase from 31% to 45% while his unfavorable rating has stayed constant at 40%. Moore on the other hand has seen his favorability rating stuck at 43% while his unfavorable have gone from 37% to 48%.

The Alabama Emerson College poll was conducted November 25-27, 2017 under the Supervision of Professor Spencer Kimball. The sample consisted of only very likely registered voters, n=500, with a margin of error (MOE) of +/- 4.3 percentage points. The Alabama data was weighted by gender, region, 2016 vote, and mode of data collection. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, party affiliation, and education carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using both an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only and an online panel provided by Opinion Access Corp.

Transparency Initiative

Results

Jones pulls within 3 points on Moore in Alabama; Third Party Busby Could Cost Moore Senate Seat

Democrat Doug Jones and Republican Roy Moore are in a statistical dead heat with Moore leading Jones 49% to 46%, with third party candidate Lee Busby at 5% in a new Emerson College Poll. The poll was conducted November 30-December 2, with a 4.3 percentage point margin of error.

Moore’s lead continues to slip in the wake of sexual misconduct allegations, from 10 points (55% to 45%) in an Emerson poll on November 9-11, to 6 points in Emerson’s previous poll, conducted, November 26-27 (53% to 47%).

This last week, Jones’ favorability stayed steady at 44%, but his unfavorable rating increased from 31% to 43%. Moore’s ratings remain largely unchanged – 42% favorable and 48% unfavorable.

The Alabama Emerson College poll was conducted November 30- Dec 2, 2017 under the Supervision of Professor Spencer Kimball. The sample consisted of only very likely registered voters, n=500, with a margin of error (MOE) of +/- 4.3 percentage points. The Alabama data was weighted by gender, region, 2016 vote, and mode of data collection. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, party affiliation, and education carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using both an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only and an online panel provided by Survey Sampling International (SSI).

Transparency Initiative

Results

New York Voters Are Worse than Better in the Trump Economy. Voters Support Gillibrand and Cuomo re-elections

A new Emerson College poll finds more New York voters see themselves as financially worse rather than financially better in the Trump Economy by 36% to 29%, 33% reported being they are the same financially than they were a year ago. Thirty-nine percent (39%) who voted for Trump in 2016 said they were better off financially while 27% were worse off; 22% of Clinton voters said they were better off in contrast to 41% who were worse.

Those polled also favor President Trump and Democratic Leaders Sen. Chuck Schumer and Congresswoman Nancy Pelosi working together to cut a deal on health care, tax and other major policy issues. Forty-one percent (41%) support these elected officials working together, while 30% are opposed and 29% were undecided. Democrats are more open to leaders cutting a deal, 43% to 24% while Republicans, who control the Presidency and both Houses of Congress, are split 40% to 39% in favor of cutting a deal.

Overall, New York voters have a 34% favorable opinion of President Trump (-25) with 59% holding an unfavorable opinion. Democrats in NY fare much better with Governor Cuomo (+14) holding a 44% to 30% favorable opinion, Senator Gillibrand (+16) with 38%/23% and Senator Schumer (+7) 40%/33%.

Regarding 2018, both Gillibrand and Cuomo deserve re-election according to the voters. They support Gillibrand for re-election 41% to 25% and Cuomo 44% to 30%. While both candidates are in strong positions, neither is at the 50% threshold incumbents hope for in their re-elect efforts indicating a small opportunity for opposition.

A potential issue for 2018 is sanctuary cities and in NY 44% of voters support sanctuary cities with 38% opposed.

Methodology

The New York Emerson College poll was conducted November 16-18, 2017 under the Supervision of Professor Spencer Kimball. The sample consisted of only registered voters, n=600, with a margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3.9 percentage points. The New York data was weighted by gender, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and 2016 vote. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, party affiliation, and education carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using both an Interactive 120 Boylston Street Boston, MA 02116-4624 emerson.edu Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only and an online panel provided by Opinion Access Corp.

Transparency Intiative

Results

Moore Leads Jones 55%-45% in Alabama Senate Race. Majority of Voters Not Shaken By Bombshell Moore Allegations

The new Emerson College poll in Alabama has Republican Roy Moore leading his Democratic challenger Doug Jones by 10 points, 55% to 45%, with about a month to go until the special election on December 12th. The ten-point margin represents a significant closing of the gap from a 22 point lead in Emerson’s September poll. The poll was conducted November 9th to 11th, in the immediate aftermath of a Washington Post story detailing allegations of sexual advances of Moore with an underage women within the past 40 years. The sample size is n=600, with a margin of error of +/- 3.9%.

With an “undecided” option provided to voters, Moore led Jones 49%/40%. Undecided voters lean towards Moore 56%/44%. Moore benefits from President Trump’s strong 58%/36% approval rating in Alabama. Among voters with a favorable opinion of Trump, Moore leads Jones 85%/15%.

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell fares badly with voters in the Yellowhammer State, with a favorable/unfavorable rating of 20%/51%. McConnell has been criticized by former Trump adviser and Moore supporter, Steve Bannon, who has a 26%/37% favorability rating among those polled. Moore has a 42%/37% favorability rating, while Jones is at 31%/40%.

Twenty-eight percent of voters agreed that the Washington Post story influenced their vote, versus 59% who said the Post story made no difference. Thirteen percent had not heard about the sexual accusations against Moore. Voters influenced by the allegations break for Jones, 68% to 32%, while voters who say it makes no difference support Moore, 67% to 33%. Voters with no knowledge of the story break for Moore, 53% to 47%.

Alabama voters are split among Trump’s decision to abstain from the Paris Climate Agreement following news this week of the U.S. being the only remaining country to decline joining the international agreement, with 37% supporting the decision compared to 34% who say we should join. Nineteen percent are unsure.

Methodology

The Alabama Emerson College poll was conducted November 9th through November 11th, 2017, under the Supervision of Professor Spencer Kimball. The sample consisted of registered voters who indicated that they are very likely to vote, n=600, with a margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3.9 percentage points. The Alabama data was weighted by gender, mode, and 2016 vote results. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, party breakdown and education carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only and an online sample provided Opinion Access Corp.

Transparency Intiative

Results

VA Governor’s Race Tightens as Northam Leads Gillespie by Three Points. Voters Oppose “Sanctuary Cities,” Majority are Pro-Choice

The new Emerson College poll in Virginia finds Democratic Lieutenant Governor Ralph Northam leading former Republican National Committee chair Ed Gillespie in the race for Governor by a margin of three points, 49% to 46%. Libertarian Cliff Hyra takes 1%. The previous Emerson poll had Northam up by five points, 49% to 44%, showing a tightening of the race since mid-October, and an improvement for Gillespie. The poll, with a sample size of n = 810 and a margin of error of +/- 3.4%, was conducted from November 2 – 4.

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