The new Emerson College poll in Alabama has Republican Roy Moore leading his Democratic challenger Doug Jones by 10 points, 55% to 45%, with about a month to go until the special election on December 12th. The ten-point margin represents a significant closing of the gap from a 22 point lead in Emerson’s September poll. The poll was conducted November 9th to 11th, in the immediate aftermath of a Washington Post story detailing allegations of sexual advances of Moore with an underage women within the past 40 years. The sample size is n=600, with a margin of error of +/- 3.9%.
With an “undecided” option provided to voters, Moore led Jones 49%/40%. Undecided voters lean towards Moore 56%/44%. Moore benefits from President Trump’s strong 58%/36% approval rating in Alabama. Among voters with a favorable opinion of Trump, Moore leads Jones 85%/15%.
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell fares badly with voters in the Yellowhammer State, with a favorable/unfavorable rating of 20%/51%. McConnell has been criticized by former Trump adviser and Moore supporter, Steve Bannon, who has a 26%/37% favorability rating among those polled. Moore has a 42%/37% favorability rating, while Jones is at 31%/40%.
Twenty-eight percent of voters agreed that the Washington Post story influenced their vote, versus 59% who said the Post story made no difference. Thirteen percent had not heard about the sexual accusations against Moore. Voters influenced by the allegations break for Jones, 68% to 32%, while voters who say it makes no difference support Moore, 67% to 33%. Voters with no knowledge of the story break for Moore, 53% to 47%.
Alabama voters are split among Trump’s decision to abstain from the Paris Climate Agreement following news this week of the U.S. being the only remaining country to decline joining the international agreement, with 37% supporting the decision compared to 34% who say we should join. Nineteen percent are unsure.
The Alabama Emerson College poll was conducted November 9th through November 11th, 2017, under the Supervision of Professor Spencer Kimball. The sample consisted of registered voters who indicated that they are very likely to vote, n=600, with a margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3.9 percentage points. The Alabama data was weighted by gender, mode, and 2016 vote results. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, party breakdown and education carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only and an online sample provided Opinion Access Corp.