Murphy Leads Guadagno by 16 Points. Menendez Hemorrhaging Strong Support for Booker, Voters Split Over Sanctuary Cities

The new Emerson College poll in New Jersey finds the Democratic gubernatorial candidate Phil Murphy leading the Republican candidate, Lieutenant Governor Kim Guadagno, by 16 points – 47% to 31%. This margin represents an improvement for Murphy, who led Guadagno by a smaller 11-point margin in the last Emerson College poll of the state on October 2. The poll consisted of a mixed mode online and IVR sample and has a margin of error of +/- 4.2%.

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Boston Voters Prefer NFL Commissioner to President Trump 2 to 1. Mayor Walsh – 38 point lead in Boston Mayor’s race; GOP Gov. Baker Very Popular in Boston; Strong support for bills to Increase in Education Funding and access to Contraception

When the NFL commissioner was at Gillette Stadium for opening night this year, he was faced with mass boos from Patriot fans but it appears that President Trump would receive an even nastier reception if he visited Boston. When registered voters were asked who they viewed more favorably: President Trump or NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell, the Commissioner got the best of the President 72% to 28%.

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North Korea – Biggest Threat, Support for DACA, Canada as Good Neighbor, Views on Catalonia Independence, Men better suited for politics, and 2020 Pres. Race

A new Emerson College national poll finds President Donald Trump with a 44% job approval rating with registered voters and a 50% disapproval rating. The President has seen a 7 point drop from Emerson’s last National poll in February when 48% approve/47% disapproved of the President’s job performance. Similarly, 40% said the country was headed in the right direction while 50% said we were headed in the wrong direction. The poll was conducted October 12-14, 2017, among registered voters, with a sample size of n = 820 and a margin of error of +/- 3.4%.

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2016 Presidential Statewide Polling — A Substandard Performance: A Proposal and Application for Evaluating Pre-election Poll Accuracy

Spencer Kimball, Esq, J.D., M.S., M.A.

American Behavioral Scientist

Abstract: This study implements a statistical accuracy (SA) measurement for assessing preelection poll accuracy by comparing Mosteller (1949) Method 5 (absolute difference between poll results and election results) with the poll’s margin of error (MOE) or credibility interval. The expectation is that 95% of poll results would be SA by falling between the poll’s margin of error or credibility interval and the actual margin of victory. The new measurement is described and then applied to the statewide preelection polls from the 2012 Presidential (n= 331) and 2016 Presidential (n = 539) races using n = 182 polling organizations in the last 21 days of each election cycle. This analysis finds statewide preelection polling in 2012 had a 94% SA and was not statistically different from the expected 95%, while the statewide polling in 2016 had a 77% SA and a binomial test found the distribution differs significantly from the expected 95%. There is a significant difference in SA between the two election cycles, χ2(1, N = 870) = 45.24, p < .000. The 2012 biased polls favored the Republican candidate 68% of the time; however, a binomial test found this distribution did not differ significantly from the expected 50/50 distribution, .50, p = .167 (two-tailed), suggesting this was caused by random error. In 2016, biased polls favored the Democratic candidate 90% of the time, a binomial test indicated that the proportion was higher than the expected .50, p < .000 (two-tailed), suggesting a systemic bias.

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Democratic Lieutenant Governor Ralph Northam leading former Republican National Committee chair Ed Gillespie in the race for Governor

A new Emerson College poll in Virginia finds Democratic Lieutenant Governor Ralph Northam leading former Republican National Committee chair Ed Gillespie in the race for Governor by a margin of five points, 49% to 44%. Libertarian nominee Cliff Hyra takes 2%. The margin is virtually unchanged from the results of the 2016 Presidential election in the state – Hillary Clinton defeated Donald Trump in the Old Dominion 50% to 44%. The poll, with a sample size of n = 318 and a margin of error of +/- 5.5%, was conducted from October 5 – October 7.

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Democrat Murphy Leads Republican Guadagno by 11 points in NJ Governor’s Race. Voters Want Menendez Out Regardless of Verdict

With about five weeks until the New Jersey Governor’s election, a new Emerson College poll finds Democrat Phil Murphy leading Republican Kim Guadagno 46% to 35% with 12% of voters undecided.

Both Murphy and Guadagno have mediocre popularity among voters with Murphy caring a 31% favorable and 34% unfavorable opinion, while Guadagno is slightly worse at 31% favorable to 37% unfavorable. Thirty-one percent (31%) of the electorate has no opinion of Murphy, while 28% have no opinion of Guadagno, suggesting both have much work to do with voters before Election Day.

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