Media Ethics and Polling Literacy: Margin of Error

Spencer Kimball, Esq, J.D., M.S., M.A.

Spencer Kimball, Director of Emerson Polling discusses how both media organizations and pollsters must do a better job in explaining the results and other uncertainties of a poll, calculate the respective margins of errors and spell out the implications for these figures in order to create a more informed electorate and to provide better expectations come election day.

Read More

Moore with Significant Lead Over Strange for GOP US Senate Nomination in Alabama. Democrat Doug Jones in statistical tie in General Election

A new Emerson Poll finds Alabama incumbent Senator Luther Strange trailing former Judge Roy Moore by 14 percentage points with about two weeks until the Special Election on September 26. Moore polled at 40% while Strange was at 26%. Thirty-four percent (34%) of voters were undecided, and the survey had a margin of error of 5.2 percentage points.

+ Read More

Strange Closes Gap but Moore Still leads by Double Digits in AL for GOP Senate Nomination

A new Emerson College Poll of Alabama finds that over the past two weeks, incumbent Senator Luther Strange has gained ground in his battle with challenger Roy Moore just two days before the September 26 runoff. Moore still leads Strange 50% to 40%, but the gap has narrowed. Strange trailed Moore by 14 points two weeks ago in Emerson’s previous Alabama poll.

President Trump’s ardent support of Luther Strange in the recent weeks is the likely cause of the gap closing. Voters in Alabama give President Trump a 61% favorable opinion and 32% unfavorable opinion, but of likely GOP Alabama primary voters, Trump’s popularity soars to 80% favorable. However, even among Trump’s supporters, Moore has razor-thin lead 49%-47%, a significant improvement for Strange since the last Emerson poll, in which Moore led among Trump supporters 51% to 32%.

+ Read More

Mayor Walsh Leads by 31 points with Affordable Housing a Key Issue

A new Emerson College poll finds Boston Mayor Marty Walsh enjoying sky high popularity, with a 72% favorable opinion among those surveyed in Boston, and a 31 point lead in the primary scheduled for September 26. The poll of likely voters has Walsh at 52% with his closest competition, Councilor Tito Jackson at 21%, 16% are still undecided.

+ Read More