Strange and Moore poised for Runoff in AL GOP Primary, Jones with chance to wrap of Democratic nomination

A new Special Election primary poll for the U.S. Senate seat in Alabama vacated by Attorney General Jeff Sessions finds the appointed Senator Luther Strange in a statistical dead heat with former Alabama Chief Justice Roy Moore at 32% to 29%, both men appear well below the 50% threshold needed to win the nomination outright and it is more likely than not that a September 26 run-off will be needed. Congressman Mo Brooks is in third with 15% and State Senator Trip Pittman rounds out the top four with 10%. Eleven-percent (11%) of Republican primary voters were undecided and no other candidate was above 2%.

On the Democratic side, Doug Jones leads Robert Kennedy Jr 40% to 23% with no other Democrat breaking 10%. Twenty-five percent (25%) of Democrat voters were undecided suggesting a volatile enough electorate that Jones could get to 50% and win the nomination.

President Donald Trump won Alabama 64% to 35% over Hillary Clinton in 2016 and currently 58% of voters approve thus far of the Presidents job performance with 37% disapproving. When voters were asked who they trusted more to tell the truth, 52% said President Trump compared with 31% who said the news media.

The voters of Alabama gave Attorney General Jeff Sessions a 60% job approval with 28% disapproving.

ECPS will be releasing additional poll results including a hypothetical 2018 GOP Governor Primary question and whether Alabama or Auburn football is the state’s favorite team on August 21.

The Emerson College Polling Society, under the supervision of Professor Spencer Kimball is pleased to present the findings from a poll of already/likely Voters in Alabama, for the Democratic and Republican Special Election August 15, 2017. All respondents interviewed in this study were part of a fully representative sample using an area probabilistic sample of registered voters from Aristotle International. The overall sample size was N= 603 with a margin of error of +/- 3.9 percentage points in 19 of 20 cases. In the Democratic Primary the sample size was n= 164 with a MOE of +/- 7.6 percentage points, in the Republican Primary the sample was n= 373 with a MOE of +/- 5 percentage points. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age and party breakdowns carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only and was conducted August 10-12, 2017.

This survey uses statistical weighting procedures to account for deviations in the survey sample from known population characteristics, which helps correct for differential survey participation and random variation in samples. The overall adult sample is weighted to recent Census and voting behavior data using a sample balancing procedure to match the demographic makeup of the population by 2016 general election results, age, and gender. Margins of sampling error for this survey are not adjusted for design effect.

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