Jon Ossoff (D) leads in GA 6th district but short of 50% threshold. Handel and Gray battle for second

A new poll for the Special Election to fill Congressman Tom Price’s vacant seat shows Democrat Jon Ossoff leading by a significant margin with 43% of the vote, followed by Republicans Karen Handel at 17%, Bob Gray at 15% and Dan Moody at 9%. The data collected April 13-15 has a margin of error of 5.4 percentage points, which means Ossoff has less than a 5% chance of clearing the 50% threshold needed to win the primary outright and forgo a general election contest.

Outgoing Congressman Tom Price leaves office with a positive rating in the district at 50% favorable and 41% unfavorable, and 93% approval among Republicans. Ossoff has the highest favorable and unfavorable rating of the primary candidates at 46% to 51%, while Handel’s popularity is under water at 34% favorable/ 50% unfavorable. Gray holds a 35% favorable, 25% unfavorable rating with 37% having no opinion. Good news for Gray, amongst Republican voters he holds a 67% to 7% favorable rating while Handel is at 57% to 37% favorable.

If Ossoff is unable to obtain 50% in the primary on Tuesday he will be forced into a run-off against the candidate who comes in second place. In a series of four hypothetical match-ups, Ossoff trails all his Republican opponents but by a range of 2 to 5 percentage points – all within the poll’s margin of error.

When asked if voters had a government issued ID to use for voting, 99% said they did. Inside the numbers on the ballot test

 When people plan to vote is a significant factor – with early voting favoring Ossoff 61%, 12% for Gray and 10% for Handel. Election Day voting also breaks for Ossoff, who has 30% of that vote, with Handel at 23% and Gray at 17%.

 Regionally, Ossoff’s strength is in Fulton County, where he gets 51%, then De Kalb at 44% and 33% in Cobb County. Handel leads Gray slightly in all three counties, but all are well within the poll’s margin of error.

 Ossoff garners 88% of the Clinton vote, with Handel taking 31% of the Trump vote from 2016; Gray is at 24% and Moody at 18%.

 Ethnicity does not deviate significantly from the mean, except in the case of Asian who favors Ossoff with 78% of the vote.

 Gender is not a significant variable, but females are breaking for Ossoff at 46% as compared to 39% of males. Gray leads among males at 19%, with Handel at 17%. Handel leads with females at 17% with Gray at 12%. Moody has 7% of male vote and 11% of female vote.

 An experiment was conducted within the poll by testing the order in which the candidates were listed on the ballot test question. For example Ossoff was the second option in one version of the poll and was the seventh option in the other version. In the version where he was listed earlier he received 41% of the vote and when listed in the 7th slot he received 45%. Overall there was no a significant difference of total vote total based on the order of the candidates.

The Emerson College Polling Society, under the supervision of Professor Spencer Kimball is pleased to present the findings from a poll of already/likely Voters in Georgia’s 6th Congressional Special Election April 18, 2017. All respondents interviewed in this study were part of a fully representative sample using an area probabilistic sampling method of N= 324 (sample size). The margin of error for the sample is +/- 5.4% in 19 of 20 cases. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age and party breakdowns 3 carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only and was conducted April 13-15, 2017.

This survey uses statistical weighting procedures to account for deviations in the survey sample from known population characteristics, which helps correct for differential survey participation and random variation in samples. The overall adult sample is weighted to recent Census and voting behavior data using a sample balancing procedure to match the demographic makeup of the population by 2016 general election results, region, age, party affiliation and race. Margins of sampling error for this survey are not adjusted for design effect.

Results