National Poll: Sanders Tied with Biden; Beto Gets Post-Announcement Bump

Former Vice President Joe Biden and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders are tied at 26% in the most recent Emerson national poll. Sanders’ support has increased 9 points from the Emerson February national poll, taken before he announced his campaign for President. Following the frontrunners in the poll are California Senator Kamala Harris at 12% and former Texas Representative Beto O’Rourke at 11%. O’Rourke’s support has increased 7 points from Emerson’s February national poll. Rounding out the top five is Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren at 8%. The poll was conducted March 17-18 of Democratic Primary voters with a subset of n=487, +/- 4.4%.


Sanders holds a strong advantage among 18-29 year olds, receiving 42% of their vote. Sanders also leads among 30-49 year olds with 30% support, while Biden leads among those 50-64 years old (39%) and 65 years or older (33%). Among those who supported Hillary Clinton in the 2016 Primaries, Joe Biden leads with 36%, followed by Harris and Sanders at 13%, O’Rourke at 12% and Warren at 8%. Of those who supported Sanders in the 2016 primary, 41% still support him, 18% now support Biden, 11% support Harris, 10% support Warren and 9% support O’Rourke.

President Trump’s approval rating has remained the same – 43% from our February poll.  However, his disapproval rating has dropped marginally from our last poll, 51% to 50%.

General Election

In general election matchups between President Trump and the top potential Democratic challengers, all such matchups fell within the margin of error –  except when Trump was matched up against Biden, where Biden beats Trump 55% to 45%. The national poll had a sample of n=1,153, +/-2.8%.


Howard Schultz once again appears to be weakening Democratic candidates hopes against President Trump. While Biden has a 10-point lead on Trump in head-to-head matchups, with 55% of the vote, he receives just 52% when Schultz is included as an option, shrinking Biden’s lead to 8 points. In a three-way matchup between O’Rourke, Trump, and Schultz, the latter pulls in 10% of the vote – leading to a Trump victory by plurality.

The Reagan Index

In the first and only Presidential Debate of the 1980 election, Ronald Reagan asked the audience four questions in his final statement: “Are you better off now than you were four years ago? Is it easier for you to go and buy things in the stores than it was four years ago? Is there more or less unemployment in the country than there was four years ago? Is America as respected throughout the world as it was?”

When asked these questions: 63% of respondents said there were better off today than they were four years ago, while 37% said they were not better off. Similarly, 61% of respondents said that it was easier for them to buy things from the store than it was 4 years ago, as compared to 39% of those who said it was not easier. When asked if there was more or less unemployment in the country, 70% said there was less unemployment  while only 30% said there was more.

However, 56% of respondents said that America was not as respected as it once was, as compared to 44% of respondents who says it now is more respected. These numbers suggest that a majority of Americans are happy with the current economic state of the U.S., a factor that may aid Trump in his reelection campaign. On the other hand, the majority of Americans do not approve of Trump’s foreign policy, a potential weak spot for the President headed into the 2020 election.

Trusting The News

Asked which news source they trust the most, the plurality of voters (35%) indicated none, followed by 25% who picked cable news, and 15% chose newspapers as their most trusted source. 18-29 year olds are the only group where “none” does not hold a plurality. 38% of this group choose social media as their most trusted source.

When voters were asked which television news source they trust the most, Fox News received a plurality of the vote, 37%, followed by CNN with 22% and MSNBC with 14%. CBS, NBC, and ABC all received 9%.

Transparency Initiative

General Results

Democratic Primary Results

Wisconsin 2020: Bernie Sanders Leads Democratic Field; Trump Competitive in General Election

The first Emerson College Wisconsin Poll of the Democratic primary finds Bernie Sanders holding a strong lead with 39% of the vote, followed by Joe Biden at 24%. In third place, Elizabeth Warren, the only other candidate in double digits, is at 14%. The poll was conducted March 15-17, n=324, +/- 5.4%.

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The Wall Street Journal: Please Howard, Don’t Hurt ‘Em; Are media pundits afraid Schultz will help re-elect Trump, or that the former Starbucks CEO will pull Democrats toward the center?

The Emerson poll also suggested that folks in the news business should definitely not relax. The school’s pollsters
report:
When asked about the trustworthiness of different media sources, the slogan “as seen on tv” was proven effective
as voters ranked television as the most trusted source of information at 28%. Online publications and newspapers
each received 14%, radio received 10% and social media received 6%. However, 28% of voters said they do not trust
any news sources; a look inside these numbers reveal that 41% of Trump voters do not trust any news source
compared to 17% of Clinton voters.
A plurality of voters, 36%, ranked Fox News television as the most trustworthy news source followed by CNN at
19%, 14% each for NBC and MSNBC. ABC came in at 9% and CBS was at 8%.”

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Michigan 2020 Primary- Biden With Strong Lead, but Sanders Waiting in the Wings.

A new Emerson College poll finds unannounced candidate Joe Biden leading a Democratic field of 13 candidates with 40% of the vote in Michigan, followed by Bernie Sanders at 23%, Kamala Harris is at 12% and Elizabeth Warren at 11% round out the only four candidates in double figures (registered voters, March 7-10, mm, n=317, +/- 5.5%).

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South Carolina 2020 Poll: Biden leads Primary Field by Wide Margin; President Trump Popular with Base.

One year out from the South Carolina primary, former Vice President Joe Biden and Senator Bernie Sanders are the only two candidates to reach double digits in the Democratic Primary for President. Biden leads with 37% of the vote, followed by Sanders with 21%. Kamala Harris comes in third with 9%, Cory Booker has 6%, while Beto O’Rourke and Elizabeth Warren both receive 5%.  The poll was conducted February 28-March 2, 2019, n=291, +/-5.7%.

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A Look at the New Hampshire 2020 Primaries

Bernie Takes Early Lead In New Hampshire Democratic Primary; Potential Tight US Senate Race if Gov. Sununu takes on Sen. Shaheen

Democratic Primary

The first New Hampshire Democratic Primary Poll since Sen. Bernie Sanders announced he’s running for president finds Sanders at a slight advantage with 27% of the vote, former Vice President Joe Biden with 25% and Sen. Kamala Harris at 12%. No other candidate clears double digits. The NH poll was conducted February 21-22 of registered voters, the Democratic primary ballot test had a sample of n=405, +/-4.8%.

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Huffington Post: One Reason To Be Cautious About Those 2020 Horserace Polls

Emerson College’s polling society, which conducts their survey partly with automated phone calls and partly online, has experimented with a few ways of asking about the field since December. In some versions, they limited their slate to just six or seven “higher profile” potential candidates, or candidates who’d already announced, said Isabel Holloway, the group’s research assistant.

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9 polling experts explain what could happen if Joe Biden doesn’t run for the presidency

Spencer Kimball, director, Emerson Polling

We did ask that question in a January 21 poll — at the time, we used seven announced candidates [which did not include Biden or Sanders].

Warren led with 43 percent of the vote, Harris was second, at 19 percent. It looks like since that poll, Harris has gained momentum; she has gone from 9 percent of the vote in December to 15 percent of the vote nationally and 18 percent in Iowa. Warren has hovered around 9 to 10 percent of the vote.

That January poll did not include Sanders, but I am not sure a Biden voter would go with Sanders. Instead, I think Warren and Harris have the most to gain and a dark horse candidate like Sherrod Brown could build a base off the 25 to 30 percent of the electorate who are currently leaning toward Biden.

 

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National 2020 Democratic Primary Poll (February)

Emerson College Pollsters break down the 2020 Democratic national primary poll results.

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